Utah vs. Oregon State Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Beavers (Saturday, October 23)

Utah vs. Oregon State Odds, Picks, Predictions: Betting Value on Beavers (Saturday, October 23) article feature image
Credit:

Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Champ Flemings (2) of the Oregon State Beavers.

  • The Utah Utes and Oregon State Beavers hit the field in Saturday night Pac-12 action.
  • The Utes are coming off a big win over Arizona State, but Mike McNamara sees betting value on the Beavers in this one.
  • Check out McNamara's full betting guide with odds and picks below.

Utah vs. Oregon State Odds

Saturday, Oct. 23
7:30 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network
Utah Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-3
-110
57
-110o / -110u
-150
Oregon State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+3
-110
57
-110o / -110u
+130
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Raise your hand if in August you had this contest between Oregon State and Utah as a matchup between the current Pac-12 North and South leaders.

That’s exactly where we’re at.

The Beavers sit tied with in-state rival Oregon atop the Pac-12 North standings at 2-1. Oregon State went on the road to Los Angeles and dominated USC, 45-27, before returning home and beating Washington with a game-winning field goal, 27-24.

There was a loss to Washington State following that victory, but the Beavers now get two weeks to prepare for this matchup at home against Utah.

Meanwhile, the Utes have responded nicely in conference play after a brutal start to the season in nonconference play. Utah dropped back-to-back games on the road to BYU and SDSU to start the year, and starting quarterback Charlie Brewer left the program.

Kyle Whittingham’s teams always seem to find their stride in conference play, and this year is no different. Utah remains perfect in Pac-12 play, with wins over Washington State, USC, and last week against Arizona State.

Both of these teams have some positive momentum brewing right now, and this week will go a long way in deciding the divisional winners within the conference.


Utah Utes

Two ugly losses coupled with news of Brewer leaving town had many in Salt Lake City discouraged about how this season would play out for the Utes.

Sophomore QB Cameron Rising deserves a lot of the credit in helping make the turnaround possible. Since taking over under center, Rising has completed over 65% of his passes and thrown for nine touchdowns to just two interceptions.

Tavion Thomas and TJ Pledger form a nice one-two punch out of the backfield, which has led to an improved running game for Utah in recent weeks.

Defensively, Morgan Scalley’s troops continue to be stout, particularly against the run. Linebacker Devin Lloyd currently leads the conference in tackles, and the defensive line has already combined for 10 sacks in conference play.

Getting after Oregon State QB Chance Nolan figures to be a key focal point for the Utes on Saturday night.


Oregon State Beavers

The Beavers ended 2020 with a nice jolt when they defeated arch-rival Oregon to end the year. That momentum has carried over to 2021.

Veteran running back B.J. Baylor has been the straw that stirs the drink for the Oregon State offense. Baylor is averaging nearly seven yards a carry on the ground, and the senior has already found the end zone nine times. When Jonathan Smith needs a big play, he dials something up to get the ball in Baylor’s hands.

One thing that has really helped the Oregon State offense is its performance in the red zone. The Beavers rank third nationally in Finishing Drives, having come away with a touchdown on 21-of-30 trips to the red zone thus far. Keeping that trend going against a stingy Utah defense will go a long way in deciding this outcome.

On the other side of the ball, it has been a bit of a mixed bag for Oregon State. The Beavers struggle to stop the run, and they’ve allowed a good number of big plays to opposing offenses.

What they are doing, however, is creating Havoc. This defense forced four turnovers in the win at USC and two more in the home win over Washington. This has allowed it to get off the field in big moments and control the time of possession in each win.

It feels like the Beavs will need to force a takeaway or two in this one if they want to pull off the upset.

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Utah vs. Oregon State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Utah and Oregon State match up statistically:

Utah Offense vs. Oregon State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 63 103
Line Yards 26 72
Pass Success 72 52
Pass Blocking** 102 100
Big Play 78 66
Havoc 65 11
Finishing Drives 46 63
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Oregon State Offense vs. Utah Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 12 76
Line Yards 2 79
Pass Success 66 46
Pass Blocking** 89 66
Big Play 16 66
Havoc 7 16
Finishing Drives 3 45
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 45 119
Coverage 62 43
Middle 8 96 17
SP+ Special Teams 123 29
Plays per Minute 63 98
Rush Rate 49.2% (105) 62.4% (21)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Utah vs. Oregon State Betting Pick

Utah opened around a 3- to 3.5-point favorite in this game, and the line has continued to hover right around that spot at the time of writing.

I really like what Smith is doing right now in Corvallis, and I actually make the Beavers a slight favorite in this matchup.

One area that should not be understated in what should be a close game is special teams, where I give the Beavers a significant edge.

OSU should be able to move the ball efficiently on the ground throughout this game behind Baylor, and I think the defense is equipped to get some timely stops.

Utah struggles to generate big plays offensively, and that has been where Oregon State has been most susceptible through its first six contests.

The situational spot in this game should not be ignored, either. Oregon State is coming off of a bye, while Utah heads North after a hard-fought battle last week against Arizona State.

I’m rolling with the Beavers and the points in what should be a fun #Pac12AfterDark matchup in Corvallis.

Pick: Oregon State +3.5

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