Wake Forest vs. Army College Football Odds & Picks: An Easy Play On Saturday’s Total (Oct. 23)
Photo by Jared C. Tilton/Getty Images. Pictured: Quarterback Sam Hartman #10 of the Wake Forest Demon Deacons
- The Wake Forest Demon Deacons and Army Black Knights football teams meet in an interconference college football game on Saturday, Oct. 23 at noon ET.
- The upstart Demon Deacons have accumulated a stellar season record of 6-0, even ranking 16th in the AP Top 25 poll, but how will the team fare against Army's unique triple option attack?
- College football betting analyst Alex Kolodziej breaks down today's college football matchup below and gives his top picks for Wake Forest vs. Army:
Wake Forest vs. Army Odds
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -120 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -160 |
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 +100 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +140 |
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are the highest-ranked ACC team in the AP Top 25 Poll entering Week 8.
Just like we all predicted before the season.
While the cream of the conference's crop has tumbled in 2021, Wake Forest is surging. Dave Clawson's club is a perfect 6-0, scoring 35 or more points in every game.
Saturday's opponent offers a contrasting style to Wake's frenetic pace.
Army plays at the slowest pace in college football with a knack for knocking notable Power 5 programs off-script — peep the game film against Oklahoma in 2018, Michigan in '19 and Wisconsin last week.
The market is expecting a tight game Saturday in West Point. However, I have a feeling the value is elsewhere for this midseason, non-conference tilt.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Wake Forest Offense
Don't blink, or else you might miss something when Wake possesses the ball.
A year after running 81.2 plays per game, the Demon Deacons are right on schedule, notching 79.2 — the 12th-highest clip in the nation.
Sophomore quarterback Sam Hartman's the maestro for the star-studded unit. He has racked up at least 300 passing yards, multiple scores through the air and one rushing touchdown in consecutive contests.
Wake's line has kept Hartman upright this season, ranking seventh and 11th in Pass Blocking and Havoc, respectively. However, the Demon Deacons are keeping the ball on the ground, running on 57% of their snaps this season.
Wake Forest Defense
The defense, meanwhile, has been a lot worse than the box scores indicate.
Although Wake is 3-0 with a +26 point differential, across its last three games combined, the defense has been sliced up for at least 500 yards in all three.
The Deacs can't get after the quarterback (119th in Pass Rush rate), but that'll be a moot point against the nation's top rushing attack.
However, Wake Forest is barely getting a push at all, grading 125th in Line Yards.
Army Black Knights
Army Offense
The first half of the season was admittedly more smooth than the second half for Jeff Monken's offense.
Army went 3-0 out of the gates, averaging 44.3 points per game. Since then, it has gone 1-2, posting just 17.7.
Army is running the ball at a torrid pace and, for the most part, has fared well.
The Black Knights are ninth nationally in Rushing Success Rate, running on 90.6% of plays.
If the offense can consistently move the ball against Wake, it should have no difficulties finishing drives — an area the Black Knights have excelled in this year (13th nationally).
Underdog Role
Army gave Wisconsin all it could handle last week, covering as a 14-point 'dog in a narrow, six-point loss.
It wasn't all that surprising.
Army has been fantastic in the underdog role, going 4-1 against the spread (ATS) in its last five.
The Black Knights are set up in another profitable situation Saturday: Monken is 5-1 against the number in the last six as a home underdog and 10-4 ATS the last 14 in West Point.
Wake Forest vs. Army Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wake Forest and Army match up statistically:
Wake Forest Offense vs. Army Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 82 | 34 | |
| Line Yards | 58 | 45 | |
| Pass Success | 26 | 72 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 7 | 69 | |
| Big Play | 76 | 104 | |
| Havoc | 11 | 31 | |
| Finishing Drives | 22 | 89 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Army Offense vs. Wake Forest Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 9 | 112 | |
| Line Yards | 76 | 125 | |
| Pass Success | 107 | 119 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 129 | 51 | |
| Big Play | 118 | 36 | |
| Havoc | 34 | 34 |  |
| Finishing Drives | 13 | 59 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 34 | 28 |
| Coverage | 29 | 36 |
| Middle 8 | 17 | 39 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 27 | 63 |
| Plays per Minute | 13 | 130 |
| Rush Rate | 57.4% (48) | 90.6% (1) |
Wake Forest vs. Army Betting Pick
This is a soft total worth exploiting.
The market got the Army-Western Kentucky total wrong in Week 2, pushing the number down a handful of points, only for the two to combine for 73 points despite zero in the first quarter.
This is a very similar matchup against a potent Wake Forest offense.
The Demon Deacons' best plan of attack is to utilize the skill corps and build a big lead to get Army off its own script. Clawson's smart enough to not take the triple-option attack lightly, considering his own defense is bottom-five nationally in the trenches.
Wake might not be as high variance as last season, but you can't sit there with a straight face and dish out a total lower than 54.
Pick: Over 52.5 (Play to 54)
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