Wyoming vs San Jose State Odds, Picks: The Spread Bet to Make (Saturday, October 30)
Ethan Miller/Getty Images. Pictured: Xazavian Valladay.
Wyoming vs. San Jose State Odds
| Wyoming Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 40.5 -105o / -115u | +125 |
| San Jose State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 40.5 -105o / -115u | -145 |
We are in for another great display of Mountain West football as the Wyoming Cowboys meet the San Jose Spartans in Saturday's key conference game.
This meeting is a rubber match between programs, as the series is tied at three wins apiece.
The Cowboys are stumbling into this matchup having lost three consecutive games. They have scored just three points in their last two contests. It might seem as if they've come crashing down to earth after a 4-0 start, but is this the time to buy low on Wyoming?
San Jose State has been underwhelming after a season for the ages in 2020. The drop-off on offense has been drastic, but has the change at quarterback revitalized the Spartans?
Wyoming Cowboys
Wyoming Offense
This Wyoming team is not built to come from behind as this has been exemplified over its last three games. This is a group that is built to run the ball and play solid defense.
That plan starts by minimalizing passing downs. The passing attack is ranked near the bottom in nearly all major statistics.
Getting senior running back Xazavian Valladay going early and often will set the tone for the entire game. If you look back on his usage when the Cowboys won four in a row versus their recent three-game losing streak, the decline is large.
In the first four games, Valladay had 76 carries. In the last three, he has only carried the ball 31 times. Valladay has proven to be effective, despite the workload reduction, as he has maintained a 4.8 yards per rush rate.
Wyoming Defense
Throughout the season, the Cowboys defense has held up its end of the team's winning philosophy.
This unit ranks 10th in opponent yards per play, 11th in big plays and 12th in defensive Finishing Drives. That type of success has equated to only allowing 21 points per game. The issue? That is only one point less than what their offense averages.
Though the significant edges for this defense come against the pass. San Jose State is a team that throws the ball around 52 percent of the time. Wyoming is the No. 1 team in passing yards per game, with only 144 allowed. That's one-yard better than top-ranked Georgia.
San Jose State Spartans
San Jose State Offense
It's hard to look at San Jose State's offensive numbers and not cringe a bit. The Spartans are 120th in points per game and 100th in yards per play.
The advanced metrics are a reflection of the abysmal production, though they might have found a glimmer in all the darkness.
Nick Nash has taken over the starting quarterback role, leading the team to two victories in four starts. Unlike his predecessor, Nash is a true dual threat. His mobility was on full display last week as rushed for 121 yards and scored the game-winning touchdown in a victory against UNLV.
While Nash's mobility is a game-changer, his passing ability has been hit or miss. In his starts, his completion percentages have ranged from 83% to 47%. Even if he performs to the mean of those two numbers, it will be a tough day against the Wyoming defense.
San Jose State Defense
The San Jose State defense doesn't jump off the page statistically, but much like Wyoming, the defensive performance looks worse when the offense isn't holding its weight.
A key area to point out for this particular matchup is the Spartans against the run, which happens to be their best area. They're at a small disadvantage in Rushing Success Allowed, but hold a very respectable rank of 21st in opponent yards per rush allowed.
Wyoming vs. San Jose State Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Wyoming and San Jose State match up statistically:
Wyoming Offense vs. San Jose State Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 60 | |
| Line Yards | 47 | 69 | |
| Pass Success | 112 | 66 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 10 | 56 | |
| Big Play | 123 | 14 | |
| Havoc | 50 | 18 | |
| Finishing Drives | 94 | 61 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
San Jose State Offense vs. Wyoming Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 117 | 40 | |
| Line Yards | 95 | 77 | |
| Pass Success | 103 | 26 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 100 | 73 | |
| Big Play | 34 | 11 | |
| Havoc | 84 | 119 | |
| Finishing Drives | 88 | 12 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 58 | 26 |
| Coverage | 5 | 41 |
| Middle 8 | — | 31 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 122 | 38 |
| Plays per Minute | 82 | 60 |
| Rush Rate | 59.% (37) | 48.4% (111) |
Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.
Wyoming vs. San Jose State Betting Pick
This game has all the makings of an old-school type of game. It will be won in the trenches, as each team tries to rush against each other. Given how these programs are built, the edge goes to Wyoming.
Our PRO Projections have the Cowboys as a small favorite. Take the points and sprinkle a little on the moneyline as they're certainly a live underdog.
Pick: Wyoming +3 | Small ML Play
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