Wilson: My Projected Over/Unders for All Week 7 College Football Games

Wilson: My Projected Over/Unders for All Week 7 College Football Games article feature image
Credit:

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joe Burrow

  • Collin Wilson uses several metrics -- yards per play, pace, matchups -- to project Week 7 college football totals.
  • Over/unders should be available to bet across the sports betting market, so use Collin's projections to find the an edge.

Two of the totals played in Week 6 included TCU-Iowa State over 44 and Iowa-Michigan over 47, each producing polar opposite results. The Cyclones and Horned Frogs are both top 10 in red zone scoring percentage, leading to an easy cash in Ames.

The story was a bit different in Ann Arbor.

Michigan got into Iowa territory five times and generated just 10 points. Not to be outdone, the Hawkeyes made it into Michigan territory seven different times for a grand total of 3 points.

There are enough data points thus far in the season that red zone and finishing drives percentage have to be taken into account with totals.

So how do totals get made? Oddsmakers assign a total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.

Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection. Oddsmakers adjust totals based on game results, while our projections rely on a bit of mathematics.

Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on opening point spreads.

Our Week 7 projected point spreads are here.

Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.

Projected College Football Totals, Week 7

Notes on Totals for Week 7

  • The early forecast calls for precipitation in the Northern Plains on Saturday, possibly in the form of snow. TCF Bank Stadium is within range of the precipitation. No side or total has been released at this time for Nebraska-Minnesota.
  • Winds are projected greater than 15 mph at Western Michigan, Purdue, Bowling Green, Eastern Michigan, Central Michigan and Wisconsin, per Sports Insights.
  • Georgia State now sits atop the plays per game leaderboard after a 99-snap game against Arkansas State. The Panthers put up 799 yards in the upset victory and are averaging 16 more snaps per game than 2018. Other teams averaging more than 10 snaps versus 2018 include Pitt, Troy, ULM, San Diego State and Maryland.
  • Kansas fired its offensive coordinator and promoted Brent Dearmon to the role. The Jayhawks have been worst in the nation at 59.8 plays per game. It is worth noting Dearmon, who was a head coach for Division III Bethel last season, wrote a book on the evolution of the RPO. Bethel led NAIA in scoring last season, averaging 55 points per game.
  • Oklahoma, Ohio State, Alabama and Georgia have a yards per play differential above +3.6.
  • Conversely UTSA, Bowling Green and Miami Ohio are the bottom of yards per play differential at -3 or less.