Wilson: My Projected Over/Unders for All Week 7 College Football Games
Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Joe Burrow
- Collin Wilson uses several metrics -- yards per play, pace, matchups -- to project Week 7 college football totals.
- Over/unders should be available to bet across the sports betting market, so use Collin's projections to find the an edge.
Two of the totals played in Week 6 included TCU-Iowa State over 44 and Iowa-Michigan over 47, each producing polar opposite results. The Cyclones and Horned Frogs are both top 10 in red zone scoring percentage, leading to an easy cash in Ames.
The story was a bit different in Ann Arbor.
Michigan got into Iowa territory five times and generated just 10 points. Not to be outdone, the Hawkeyes made it into Michigan territory seven different times for a grand total of 3 points.
There are enough data points thus far in the season that red zone and finishing drives percentage have to be taken into account with totals.
So how do totals get made? Oddsmakers assign a total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.
Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection. Oddsmakers adjust totals based on game results, while our projections rely on a bit of mathematics.
Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on opening point spreads.
Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.