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After a nice appetizer on Thursday and Friday, Saturday's Week 5 college football slate is finally upon us.
What makes today's slate even more attractive is the number of ranked matchups on the docket, and it all starts with No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 16 Mississippi State in the noon window.
We cover that game and more in our college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the noon games on Saturday, October 3.
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College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's slate of noon games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 12:45 p.m. | |
 | 12 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Alabama vs Mississippi State Pick
Kamario Taylor is the highest-rated quarterback to ever sign with Mississippi State, and it takes all of two snaps to see why.
He has an electric arm, allowing him to fire the ball anywhere on the field with a simple flick of his wrist. And he has the size and athleticism to run through or around most defenders.
He ranks ninth nationally in QBR, and his “moon ball” touch is becoming the stuff of legend.
Among qualifying quarterbacks with at least 16 deep pass attempts (20-plus air yards), Taylor is the only passer with seven or more passing touchdowns and zero interceptions.
Head coach Jeff Lebby has created a perfect system for Taylor to flourish within, and that was on full display on Saturday night in Starkville.
After blowing a 14-0 lead, Lebby put the ball in Taylor’s hands late, and the sophomore delivered with a perfectly placed game-winning touchdown pass between two Missouri defenders.
Speaking of that blown lead, while the Taylor storyline is genuinely inspiring, this MSU defense is not. Austin Simmons carved up the Bulldog defense for 295 yards and three scores through the air.
Despite playing ULM and Minnesota in its nonconference slate, Mississippi State ranks 114th in pass defense and 130th in pass rush. That last stat is a major problem with Alabama coming to town.
If you choose to blitz Crimson Tide quarterback Keelon Russell, you’re playing with fire. Alabama’s super athletic quarterback burned Florida State for a 57-yard rushing touchdown when the Seminoles dared to blitz him two weeks ago.
And if you allow him to set up shop in a clean pocket, he completes nearly 75% of his attempts with the 11th-highest passer rating in the sport, per PFF.
Perhaps it’s Alabama fatigue, a desire by the college football world to see the Tide struggle, or Russell’s small sample size, but markets haven’t caught up to the fact that this Alabama offense is elite.
The Tide are averaging 48 points per game (4th), regularly hitting explosive plays of 30-plus yards (13th), and finishing off drives at an elite level. They have entered their opponent’s red zone 19 times this season; they’ve scored on every trip, with a touchdown percentage of 79% (16th).
If Alabama can set the pace, MSU will have no choice but to rev up its NASCAR tempo.
Lebby already has his Bulldogs snapping the ball every 23 seconds (6th), so they’ll be prepared to play catch-up if Alabama hits the ground running early in this game.
Alabama has looked vulnerable on the back end, evidenced by Florida State’s 377 passing yards and 36 points.
Under the hood, it's even worse in one specific category: tackling. Alabama ranks 93rd in that department, and the combination of Taylor, Fluff Bothwell and Anthony Evans III poses major problems in the tackle-breaking department.
All three players are elite when it comes to making the first man miss. Bothwell and Evans III are both top-15 in forced missed tackles at their respective positions, and Taylor has flashed his escapability (six missed tackles) when he has needed to.
Both teams have 40-point upside in this one. A total under 60 is too good to pass up.
Pick: Over 59.5
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Boston College vs SMU Pick
By Stuckey
SMU actually showed up as a buy-low candidate this week following a number of unlucky results.
The Mustangs really should've beaten Florida State by three-plus touchdowns in a game where they just continuously shot themselves in the foot.
They also got unlucky in a road loss at Louisville in a game they finished with a 479-442 yards advantage but just couldn't overcome a -3 turnover margin in addition to a pair of failed fourth-down attempts.
Even last week against Missouri State, SMU only won by 10 despite holding a whopping 592-239 yardage edge. The bounces will eventually break their way.
Meanwhile, Boston College has a pair of misleading covers against P4 schools sandwiched in between an ugly six-point home win over Maine.
Including fourth-down stops, Rutgers (with a backup quarterback) turned the ball over six times in BC territory. And last week in a close loss to Virginia Tech, the teams basically played in a monsoon, so you can almost throw out that result completely.
From a matchup perspective, Kevin Jennings should shred this BC defense that won't generate any pressure, which is where Jennings has historically run into problems.
And on the other side of the ball, you need to hit big plays through the air against this SMU secondary. However, BC (129th in Pass EPA) is completely incapable of doing that with quarterback Mason McKenzie sporting a 2:8 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy play ratio on the year.
The Eagles' offense almost completely relies on quarterback Mason McKenzie's running ability. He leads the team in rushing attempts with 74 (29 more than running back Evan Dickens) and yards with 363.
Fortunately for SMU, it has already faced two very mobile quarterbacks in Ashton Daniels and Lincoln Kienholz, which will serve as valuable prep for McKenzie. They have the linebackers to spy him, which should completely neuter the BC offense.
Once SMU jumps out to a big lead here, I just don't see how BC can keep up in a game that should have plenty of possessions for SMU to spread its wings.
Check out all of Stuckey's Spots in his full article below:
Pick: SMU -20.5 (Play to -21)
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Vanderbilt vs Georgia Pick
By Doug Ziefel
Gunner Stockton's rushing production this season has been almost entirely opponent-dependent rather than a steady weekly role. He exploded for 97 yards on just seven carries against Arkansas — a 13.9-yard-per-attempt clip driven by a single 62-yard scramble — but in his very next start, against Oklahoma's significantly tougher defensive front, he was held to just five rushes for zero yards.
That's the range this prop lives in. Stockton is a legitimate running threat when the pocket collapses, or Georgia wants to sprinkle in designed QB runs, but he's not a primary ball-carrier by design, and his output swings hard based on matchup and game script.
This afternoon's game script works against a big rushing number. Georgia is favored by nearly four touchdowns, and a team that comfortable rarely needs to keep feeding its starting quarterback read-option and scramble opportunities into the second half — especially with a disparity this steep, Georgia's staff has every incentive to protect Stockton from unnecessary hits and start rotating in backups once the lead is firmly in hand.
Georgia's defense, which ranks third nationally in EPA per rush allowed, should also make quick work of limiting Vanderbilt's possessions, compounding the likelihood of a running clock and an early close to Stockton's workload.
The market's own numbers back this up. The rest of the market is around 27.5 yards at the time of writing. Between his volatile role, Georgia's lopsided favorite status, and a defense that should make this one largely academic by halftime, the under carries real value here.
Pick: Gunner Stockton Under 29.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
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Collin Wilson's Full Action Network App Betting Card
Along with the aforementioned picks for Saturday's noon college football games, Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson has more.
Wilson came through with a number of bets for Saturday's slate, so be sure to download the Action Network app to check them all out.
