If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
Week 5 of the college football season rolls on.
Saturday's afternoon slate features a number of ranked matchups, including Florida vs. Missouri and Ohio State vs. Iowa, as well as a crucial SEC showdown between Auburn and Tennessee.
With that said, let's take a look at our college football best bets and NCAAF predictions for the Week 5 afternoon games on Saturday, October 3.
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more expert picks and analysis!
 |  |  |
College Football Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Saturday's slate of afternoon games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 4:15 p.m. | |
 | Afternoon | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ohio State vs Iowa Pick
Iowa's ability to move the ball on offense will boil down to success with outside zone. The Hawkeyes are using different personnel, but the run concept accounts for more than 85% of Iowa's rushing attempts.
That may translate to a struggle against the Buckeyes, who have a 66% Success Rate against outside zone while producing nearly a negative half-point of EPA against the concept.
Another edge for Ohio State will come in the passing game with quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes will see quarters coverage with a small mix of Cover 3 from the Hawkeyes defense.
Sayin has been elite against quarters coverage dating back to 2025. Ohio State has overperformed against quarters since the beginning of last season, averaging a 66% Success Rate and a positive EPA of nearly a half-point on each attempt.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for the Buckeyes to be favored by 17 points, so any number at two touchdowns or less is a wager on Ohio State.
Check out Wilson's full Week 5 betting card below:
Pick: Ohio State -14 or Better
| | | | | |
Florida vs Missouri Pick
By Stuckey
Last week, nobody wanted to bet Florida in one of the best situational spots of the entire season. I loved the Gators last week and had them as a top-10 team prior to that victory (and still do).
Now, one week later, everybody is lining up to back Florida in a brutal situational spot. That's usually my sign to sell high, especially since I show value on the home 'dog here.
Missouri will have to play more zone here and rely on its defensive line to get home on Aaron Philo.
It will be strength-on-strength when Florida has the ball, as I have been very impressed by the Missouri defense despite plenty of offseason turnover. I actually have the Tigers' D as a top-15 unit adjusting for opponent so far this season. They seem to have hit on a lot of their additions.
On the other side of the ball, it will be weakness-on-weakness in terms of the Missouri rushing attack. The Tigers really miss Ahmad Hardy, who will remain out with an injury. Jamal Roberts just doesn't provide as much pop, especially after contact.
However, this might be a week where Missouri can get its ground game going a bit against a Florida defense (seventh percentile in Line Yards) that has struggled in that department (122nd EPA Per Rush allowed).
That will help provide some balance to an offense that needs it.
Mizzou quarterback Austin Simmons has all of the talent in the world, and this is a very explosive wide receiver room that can exploit a vulnerable Florida secondary that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA allowed.
He should find plenty of success in the intermediate range, which is where you want to attack a Brad White defense.
The Florida defense has lived off the Havoc it has created, primarily with its potent edge rushers.
However, Missouri's tackles have performed at a very high level in pass protection, so the Tigers can provide much more resistance than Auburn's atrocious offensive line and Ole Miss' struggling tackles could.
Look, I'm not happy about backing Simmons (who is overdue for some turnovers) and offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey against Buster Faulkner and this powerhouse Florida offense. But I have to do it at this price in this spot.
As a conference home dog at Missouri, Eli Drinkwitz has gone 10-4 ATS (71.4%), covering by six points per game on average. I've heard all the talk about Drinkwitz not being able to beat ranked opponents, but I don't need him to win this game. Just cover, baby.
Check out all of Stuckey's Week 5 Spots below:
Pick: Missouri +6 (Play to +4.5)
| | | | | |
Auburn vs Tennessee Pick
By Doug Ziefel
Freshman phenom Faizon Brandon opened the season in historic fashion — five total touchdowns in his debut against Furman, tying a Tennessee freshman record — but his passing touchdown production has steadily declined as the level of competition has risen.
He threw three touchdowns against FCS Furman, two against Georgia Tech and just one in each of his last two starts against Kennesaw State and Texas.
That's two consecutive one-touchdown passing performances, the second of which came in his worst statistical game of the season: 17-of-29 for just 145 yards and a season-low 112.0 passer rating, while Tennessee's offensive line allowed 10 sacks and the run game was held to a season-low 70 yards.
Tennessee's offensive line will impact Brandon; despite Auburn's defense being regarded as one of the weaker units in the SEC on paper, Brandon's own recent form, not just the matchup, is clearly concerning, and it trickles down.
A true freshman working through his first real taste of SEC-caliber pressure doesn't necessarily snap back to his season-opening form in one week simply because the next opponent grades out as beatable; confidence and protection issues can linger.
Tennessee's staff also has every incentive to lean on the run game and a more conservative, play-action-first approach to take pressure off its freshman quarterback after the beating he took last week, which would naturally cap his touchdown-throwing opportunities even in a favorable matchup.
Faizon Brandon Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)
| | | | | |
Eastern Michigan vs UMass Pick
I’ll take Eastern Michigan at nearly 2-1.
Around the BBOC HQ water cooler, it’s been all UMass, UMass, UMass.
The Minutemen already cashed their season win total over and sit fourth in the MAC futures market at 8-1. They’ve got Pop Watson, a sawed-off, dual-threat quarterback with huge stats. I get the hype because he’s everything G6 football is supposed to be.
But how much is that Rutgers upset actually worth? Outside of that early shocker, UMass’ resume is thin with two FCS wins and a victory over Sacramento State.
Bill Connelly’s SP+ ranks every FBS program: Rutgers at 75, Sacramento State at 153, Sacred Heart at 257 and Stonehill at 335. This was not a murderers’ row for the Minutemen.
I always like a checklist for potential upsets, and Eastern Michigan has it all.
A head coach I like? Check. Chris Creighton is the real deal in MAC spots. Since 2014, he’s the third-most profitable MAC coach as an underdog, cashing nearly 59% of the time with 27 outright upsets, tied for fifth-most over the last 12 seasons.
That’s more than two upsets a year. You can hang your hat on Creighton showing up when his team is the underdog.
Quarterback? Check. I’m not swooning, but Noah Kim’s at least a B/B+ by MAC standards.
Last year when he faced the top MAC teams — Miami (OH), Western Michigan and Ohio — he tossed eight touchdown passes, added a rushing score and completed 61% of his throws. He kept them in those games.
Which brings me back to UMass. I don’t buy that it's as stout as its metrics suggest because of the quality of competition. Are the Minutemen really a top-25 pass defense with an elite pass rush, or have they been feasting on offensive lines that should be lining up for someone else?
So, I like Eastern Michigan to keep hanging around as a live upset candidate. With Creighton’s history, a competent QB, and a UMass resume that looks thin under scrutiny, I think the Eagles can pull off an upset.
Pick: Eastern Michigan ML +185
| | | | | |
Kentucky vs South Carolina Pick
By Kyle Hunter
The South Carolina Gamecocks’ season is spiraling out of control, and head coach Shane Beamer’s seat is red-hot right now.
Dylan Stewart is suspended and reportedly not with the team right now. I don’t know what Stewart’s future holds, but he's the most talented player on the South Carolina defense, and he'll be missed on the field.
South Carolina is still pushing the pace on offense, coming in at 16th nationally in plays per minute. The Gamecocks have been running 73 plays per game.
Kentucky is playing slower than South Carolina, but the Wildcats offense has been far more explosive than expected. Kentucky sits 32nd nationally in rushing explosiveness and 24th in passing explosiveness.
The Cats' offensive line deserves a ton of credit for their fast start this season. The Wildcats grade out as the 17th-best offensive line in pass blocking and ninth-best in run blocking, per PFF.
This was going to be a larger play for me, but the weather forecast made me back this one down a bit. The forecast in Columbia calls for a lot of rain on Saturday night.
I still think Kentucky will score, but the confidence rating and unit size on the play dipped a bit because of a little extra uncertainty.
Check out all of Kyle Hunter's team totals here:
Pick: Kentucky Team Total Over 24.5
| | | | | |
Stuckey's Full Action Network App Betting Card
Along with the aforementioned picks for Saturday's afternoon college football games, Action Network expert Stuckey has more.
Stuckey came through with a number of bets for Saturday's slate, so be sure to download the Action Network app to check them all out.
