With the first College Football Playoff rankings set to be released on November 4, it's time to start thinking about who really has the best chance to win it all this season.
Prediction market Kalshi has odds posted for the most likely teams to take home the trophy, with some Big Ten and SEC programs leading the way.
You can trade on events in the world of sports like this, and thousands of other markets, at Kalshi, which is available in all 50 states. We wrote a full explainer on how it works here.
The percentages you see below represent what the market roughly believes each candidate's chances are (the "spread" is the reason it adds up to more than 100%, and it's how market makers make money. Again, see our full Kalshi how-to guide for why and how this works.)
College Football Playoff Champion Odds, Predictions
Odds are via Kalshi and update every hour.
College Football Playoff Background
Who is in?
As of this writing, there are four undefeated teams left in the AP Top 25, including Ohio State, Indiana and Texas A&M. We'll get to the fourth later.
Aside from the undefeated squads, Kalen DeBoer's Alabama Crimson Tide likely have the best odds to make it. They come into Week 11 at 7-1, and face only one ranked opponent the rest of the way. Their other two opponents? LSU under an interim head coach, and the out-of-conference Eastern Illinois Panthers.
Who is on the bubble?
The fourth undefeated team in the latest AP Top 25 is BYU. The Cougars have stormed out to an 8-0 record, yet they remain ranked 8th due to weaker competition in the Big 12.
The other teams most clearly on the bubble are 7-1 Georgia, 7-1 Oregon, 8-1 Ole Miss, and 8-1 Texas Tech, all of which would have to settle for at-large bids if the season ended today. Also, don't count out the surprising Virginia Cavaliers, who sit at 8-1 with a 5-0 record in the ACC.
Who has the best shot to win it all?
Ohio State
As of this writing, the Kalshi odds are in favor of the Buckeyes repeating as CFP champions. Ryan Day's squad has trounced the competition this season, from a one-score Week 1 win against Texas to their most recent 38-14 thrashing of James Franklin-less Penn State.
They may lack ranked wins, but they also have the advantage of an easy schedule for the rest of the regular season, with only Michigan on November 29 posing a real threat. Ohio State will be sure to have advantageous CFP seeding when it's all said and done.
Indiana
An upstart no more, Indiana is turning the corner to becoming a well-respected football program under Curt Cignetti, and a second-straight CFP appearance would cement that reputation. The only nine-win team in the AP top 25 as of this writing, they boast what Ohio State does not: multiple wins (and games) against ranked conference opponents, including a 63-10 shellacking of a No. 9 Illinois team that hasn't looked quite right since.
That's to say that this Indiana team isn't just good, it's battle-tested. The Hoosiers will finish their season against Penn State, Wisconsin, and Purdue, all lowly Big Ten squads that should allow them to tune up properly before the real competition begins in December.
Alabama
Despite the alarms sounding after the Tide's Week 1 loss to Florida State, DeBoer and his team have righted the ship with seven straight wins. And that's come with a whopping four ranked conference wins, as Alabama knocked off No. 5 Georgia, No. 16 Vanderbilt, No. 14 Missouri, and No. 11 Tennessee in consecutive weeks.
That FSU loss looms a lot smaller now. This offense, under quarterback Ty Simpson, has proven to be one of the very best in the country, and there's no reason to believe the competition come playoff time will be something Alabama hasn't prepared for.
