While No. 7 Indiana vs. No. 3 Oregon and the Red River Rivalry take center stage during the Week 7 NCAAF afternoon window, I have three under-the-radar college football predictions that I'm targeting.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 7, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 23-18-2 (56.1%)
- Overall: 192-141-3 (57.7%)
College Football Predictions for Week 7 Afternoon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 2:30 p.m. | Kent State -2.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Oregon State +3 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Georgia State +3 |
Kent State -2.5 vs. UMass
2:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
It's a national travesty that this game will not be on national television — only if you bet actual dollars on it. If you don't wager on it, yes, this will be completely unwatchable.
Sadly, I'm a masochist and did click submit on Kent State -2.5.
If you told me before the season that I would've bet the Golden Flashes as a favorite, I would have assumed I ended up doing so from a psychiatric ward.
Yet, I somehow found myself still in my own home doing so with a clear head (although that's also what an insane person would say).
So, why am I betting a Kent State team that has gone 1-25 over its past 26 contests and hasn't been favored against an FBS opponent since 2022?
Well, I actually have the Golden Flashes power-rated ahead of the Minutemen as of this moment for three primary reasons:
- Kent State has looked much more functional than I had assumed going into the season. Keep in mind this team lost its head coach in the offseason due to a scandal and saw its defensive coordinator leave for an FCS assistant role in the summer.
- The emergence of true freshman quarterback Dru DeShields. He looks like the real deal for a team I thought would have completely incompetent quarterback play all season long. Kent State even held him out last week at Oklahoma to prevent an injury ahead of league play, especially with its most winnable FBS game on deck. This is a big deal for the Golden Flashes, who have lost 26 straight against FBS opponents since beating Buffalo back in 2022. Yes, it's been almost three years.
- UMass is in complete disarray from top to bottom and in much worse shape injury-wise.
Keep in mind, Kent State has also played a much more difficult schedule. In fact, the Golden Flashes have played one of the five toughest in the country with a trio of road games against ranked opponents in Oklahoma, Texas Tech and Florida State.
They also almost upset Buffalo in their MAC home opener and did at least take care of business against their FCS opponent. That's more than UMass can say after getting blown out in their MAC home opener vs. Western Michigan and losing to an even worse FCS school in Bryant.
The Minutemen opened the season with a 75-yard touchdown drive against Temple. Since that score, against their four FBS foes, they have scored a grand total of two touchdowns, which both came on 21-yard drives following a blocked punt and a fluke interception.
Kent State has found its answer at quarterback with DeShields, who went 22-of-32 for 279 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions against Buffalo. He even fared well against FSU and Texas Tech, considering the enormous talent disparities.
Conversely, UMass continues to search for answers under center with an ongoing rotation.
DeShields has thrown five touchdowns to just one interception while averaging 8.2 yards per attempt. In comparison, three UMass quarterbacks have combined to throw for only one touchdown and four interceptions (4 BTT to 8 TWP) against a significantly easier schedule of opposing defenses.
These are undoubtedly two of the worst teams in the country. Neither will have much success running the ball, and the special teams for both are a calamity. The difference, in my opinion, will be that Kent State has the superior quarterback play.
Look, I wouldn't blame you for completely passing on this game.
Losing money betting on Kent State as a favorite won't faze me in the least after decades of betting on bad teams. But if that sounds potentially tilting to you, there are so many other games on the board to choose from.
However, if you do decide to come along for the ride, we'll at least have some fun on X during the game.
While everybody else tweets about the Red River Rivalry and Oregon-Indiana, I will make sure the world stays up to date on this mess — which hopefully ends with Kent State ending its long FBS win drought (by at least three points).
Notable Nugget
Since 2005, Kent State is the least profitable team to back in all of college football with a 42.5% cover rate and a -17.5% ROI. UMass isn't too far behind at 43.5% and -15.6%, respectively.
Pick: Kent State -2.5
Oregon State +3 vs. Wake Forest
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW
This sets up as a super weird spot for the Demon Deacons, who have to travel across the country for a second-straight road game to take on a winless nonconference opponent.
I would not be shocked in the least if they come out extremely flat after two extremely hard-fought ACC battles.
Wake Forest has a bye next week, followed by conference clashes with SMU, Florida State and Virginia. Why does that matter?
Well, star running back Demond Claiborne left last week's game with an injury, and starting quarterback Robby Ashford has also been hobbled over the past two weeks.
As a result, there's a chance Claiborne sits and Wake doesn't run Ashford as much, which would severely impact an already limited offense.
Oregon State has had a disastrous 0-6 start to the season. However, the Beavers undoubtedly have continued to fight every week under head coach Trent Bray.
They've just been extremely unlucky in almost every facet. Amazingly, they've been the unluckiest team over the past two weeks in terms of net Success Rate — a battle they have won in four of their six losses.
Last week on the road at App State, they finished with a +102 net yards advantage (456-354). And despite a -3 turnover margin, they still had a chance to win before getting stuffed at the goal line in the final minutes on four consecutive plays.
They also missed a chip-shot field goal and threw an interception inside the 5-yard line.
Against Houston at home the week prior, they once again won the yardage battle (390-352) and dominated on a down-to-down basis, but came up on the short end of the stick in overtime after blowing a 14-point fourth quarter lead and missing the potential game-winning field goal at the end of regulation.
Even in a home loss against Fresno State, they outgained the Bulldogs, 528-318, in another contest where they led in the fourth quarter.
It's been Murphy's Law for the Beavers, who have yet to catch a single break against one of the 20 toughest schedules in the country. Meanwhile, Wake Forest has played a significantly easier schedule.
Lastly, Oregon State's special teams deserve a ton of blame for the 0-6 start. This team has inarguably been the worst in the nation in that department. If it just wasn't a complete disaster, the Beavers would probably be sitting at 3-3 instead of 0-6.
They did at least fire their special teams coordinator this week, so there's at least upside with some potential changes on that front.
I expect a game effort from the desperate Beavers, who are way overdue to get a few bounces against a potentially shorthanded Wake Forest team that could get caught sleepwalking in a tough situational spot.
Notable Nugget
Wake Forest has only played two games in the Pacific Time Zone over the past 20 years, including a push as a three-point favorite at Stanford last season.
The only other instance came back in 2010 in a 68-24 blowout loss also on the farm at Stanford.
Pick: Oregon State +3
Georgia State +3 vs. Appalachian State
3:30 p.m. ⋅ ESPN+
First off, Georgia State has played one of the 10 most difficult schedules in the country. Just take a look at its four losses:
- at Ole Miss
- James Madison
- vs. Memphis
- at Vanderbilt
It doesn't get much more brutal than that, especially for a Sun Belt team.
Meanwhile, App State ranks 128th in that department with its three victories coming against Lindenwood, Charlotte and Oregon State in a game it should have lost last week.
Meanwhile, its two true road games resulted in blowout losses against Boise State and Southern Miss.
It's also been an emotional two-week stretch for the Mountaineers after the unfortunate passing of former head coach Shawn Clark, so I wouldn't be surprised if this is a bit of a crash spot after last week's miraculous win that required a late goal-line stop.
Ultimately, we have two teams with drastically different strengths of schedules that are impacting the perception of the caliber of each respective squad.
Additionally, both are coming off results that easily could have been flipped, with Georgia State losing a dead-even game against the class of the conference due to a few special teams blunders, while App State needed every last second to hold on vs. winless Oregon State in a game it got statistically dominated on a down-to-down basis.
In fact, from a net Success Rate perspective, the Mountaineers had the luckiest win of Week 6.
I also don't mind the matchup.
App State's run defense has been downright dominant, but Georgia State can't run the ball. What the Panthers can do is throw the rock around with the well-traveled TJ Finley, who has played very well against a gauntlet of opponents since taking over under center.
He should have plenty of success dropping back against a porous Mountaineer secondary that ranks outside the top 90 in EPA and Success Rate after allowing Maalik Murphy to throw for 360 last week.
Look out for stud wide receiver Ted Hurst to have a big day at the office and tight end Camden Overton-Howard to carry his momentum over after a breakout game vs. JMU.
The trench play for Georgia State is miserable on both sides of the ball, which is a bit concerning, especially on the defensive side of the ball, where they may struggle to contain Arkansas transfer running back Rashod Dubinion.
However, it's not as bad as it has looked, given the quality of competition.
Regardless, I have this as more of a coin-flip game, and the Panthers will benefit from seeing film on some of the new-designed stuff App State did last week in quarterback JJ Kohl's first start.
Plus, Georgia State did look like a completely different team last Saturday following its bye, which makes sense with a brand-new quarterback and two new coordinators that had to deal with plenty of roster turnover across a vicious schedule over the first month of the season.
There's some real quality talent on this offense that can exploit App State's primary defensive deficiencies.
Notable Nugget
Teams like Georgia State (1-4 ATS) with a sub-25% cover rate have hit at a 57% rate historically as an underdog in Games 5 and 6.
Pick: Georgia State +3
