Wilson: Projecting Week 11 College Football Spreads, and Games I Want to Bet Sunday

Wilson: Projecting Week 11 College Football Spreads, and Games I Want to Bet Sunday article feature image
Credit:

Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mississippi State’s Robert Rivers

  • Collin Wilson uses his betting power ratings to project point spreads for Week 11 before oddsmakers do.
  • Use them to find betting value when the odds are first released on Sunday afternoon.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 11’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based off my college football Power Ratings, which you can find here.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday, I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 11 Point Spread Projections

Numbers I’m Looking For

Mississippi State at Alabama

Projected Spread: Alabama -20
Number I Want: Mississippi State +21 or better

Alabama shut out rival LSU, winning the SEC West division. The Crimson Tide are now headed to the SEC Championship game next month against Georgia.

Regardless of what happens against Mississippi State and Auburn, Alabama could lose a game and still be in the running for the College Football Playoff as SEC Champions.

Mississippi State presents a tougher challenge offensively than LSU. The Bulldogs are top 10 in opportunity rate and stuff rate, giving Cowbell a great shot at first downs and extending drives. Mississippi State ranks 20th offensively and first defensively in finishing drives.

Baylor at Iowa State

Projected Spread: Iowa State -13
Number I Want: Iowa State -10 or better

Baylor pulled off the home upset against Oklahoma State, giving the Bears five wins this season, one short of bowl eligibility. Baylor returns to the road, where it has lost its last three games.

Iowa State is firing on all cylinders with quarterback Brock Purdy and disposed of of Kansas 27-3 on Saturday. The Cyclones still have a shot to play for a conference title in Arlington, and should be focused for this game.

Kentucky at Tennessee

Projected Spread: Tennessee +5
Number I Want: Tennessee +7 or better

Kentucky lost its bid to head to the SEC Championship game after falling to Georgia 34-17. The Wildcats will need to regroup before taking on the rest of their schedule, starting with Tennessee.

The Volunteers defeated Charlotte to get to four wins on the season, needing just two more for bowl eligibility. The Vols’ remaining schedule after Kentucky includes Missouri and Vanderbilt.

Situational Edges I’m Eyeing

  • LSU will look to rebound from falling out of the College Football Playoff top four against a team coming off a bye week in Arkansas.
  • Florida Atlantic can still make a bowl game after an underdog upset victory over Florida International. The Owls will get a Western Kentucky team spiraling downward after a fifth consecutive loss.
  • Liberty continues its path for a Cure Bowl berth against in-state rival Virginia. This is a non-conference sandwich spot for the Cavaliers with Georgia Tech on deck.
  • Kent State, Ohio, Louisville, Fresno State, UCLA, South Carolina, Western Kentucky, Temple, Charlotte, Florida State, Oklahoma State, Appalachian State, Navy, BYU, California and San Jose State are all on back-to back travel. 
  • Indiana, Vanderbilt, and Nevada are coming off a bye week. Both North Texas and Old Dominion face each other off a bye.

A Few Other Week 11 Notes

  • Akron quarterback Kato Nelson left the game against Northern Illinois with an injury.
  • Quarterback Zac Thomas did not play for Appalachian State against Coastal Carolina because of a concussion.
  • Alan Bowman left the game for Texas Tech against Oklahoma. The quarterback is dealing with injuries related to a previously punctured lung.
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