Wilson: Projecting Week 11 College Football Spreads, and Games I Want to Bet Sunday

Nov 04, 2018 4:00 PM EST
  • Collin Wilson uses his betting power ratings to project point spreads for Week 11 before oddsmakers do.
  • Use them to find betting value when the odds are first released on Sunday afternoon.

Welcome to Sunday Morning Coffee. Let this column serve as your first look at the projected point spreads for Week 11’s college football matchups.

These numbers are based off my college football Power Ratings, which you can find here.

When the real lines come out later on Sunday (usually around mid-afternoon on BetOnline), I’ll compare my power-rated spreads to what oddsmakers posted to find betting value before the odds move.

Be sure to follow me in The Action Network app to get alerts whenever I make a pick off these numbers.


College Football Week 11 Point Spread Projections

Numbers I’m Looking For

Mississippi State at Alabama

Projected Spread: Alabama -20
Number I Want: Mississippi State +21 or better

Alabama shut out rival LSU, winning the SEC West division. The Crimson Tide are now headed to the SEC Championship game next month against Georgia.

Regardless of what happens against Mississippi State and Auburn, Alabama could lose a game and still be in the running for the College Football Playoff as SEC Champions.

Mississippi State presents a tougher challenge offensively than LSU. The Bulldogs are top 10 in opportunity rate and stuff rate, giving Cowbell a great shot at first downs and extending drives. Mississippi State ranks 20th offensively and first defensively in finishing drives.

Baylor at Iowa State

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Credit:

Vasha Hunt-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mississippi State’s Robert Rivers

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