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College Football Schedule, Week 3: Best Games to Watch Based on Vegas Data

Sep 14, 2018 4:34 PM EDT
  • There are some great games to watch in Week 3 of the college football season.
  • We used spreads, over/unders and power ratings to help you decide which games to watch.
  • Ole Miss vs. Alabama ranks first with Ohio State vs. TCU a close second.

We get it. You’re an avid college football fan, and you like spreading bets across a variety of games. But then you plop down on your couch with a beer at noon to start your all-day binge, and you have remote anxiety. Should you watch Ole Miss-Alabama or Ohio State-TCU? Or will the best game actually be between Arizona State and San Diego State?

Thankfully, here at The Action Network, we have a solution to your conundrum. We have a wealth of Vegas data on our site, as well as proprietary metrics to measure how good teams are, and thus we can put some data behind the games that should capture your attention. Remote anxiety, be gone.

Using four factors, we’ll rank each game on a watchability scale each week:

  1. The spread: A closer spread is better. Who cares about that 40-point blowout?
  2. The total: Maybe you’re a maniac and like watching 3-0 SEC slugfests, but let’s assume that high-scoring games are preferred.
  3. How good the teams are: Using our proprietary metric, we’ll give more weight to, ya know, the good teams.
  4. Public betting data: We have a ton of data on which teams the public is backing, so we’ll factor that in, too.

And there you have it. The Action Network weekly Watchability Ratings.

Week 3 College Football Watchability Ratings

Let’s run through some of the top games and then I’ll post a table at the bottom with all of the games and where they rank:

1. Alabama at Ole Miss

  • Alabama -21
  • Over/under: 69
  • 7 p.m. ET | ESPN

This game features two great teams in what could be a shootout: Bama has had no problems putting up points, and Ole Miss has put up a combined 123 points over its first two games.

The public is all over Alabama in this one, as the Crimson Tide are getting 72% of the bets as of Friday afternoon, and this affair is the second-most bet game of the weekend. Tua Tagovailoa and A.J. Brown going back and forth with touchdowns is must-watch TV.


>> All odds as of 7 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college football odds and track your bets


2. Ohio State at TCU

  • Ohio State -12.5
  • Over/under: 59.5
  • 8 p.m. ET | ABC/WatchESPN

This game has the highest combined power rating of the week, and it’s projected to be a bit closer game than Bama-Ole Miss. There could definitely be fireworks: Per our Ohio State-TCU betting guide, TCU has routinely allowed big plays on defense, ranking third worst-last season in explosiveness.

That said, the Horned Frogs will make adjustments: Under head coach Gary Patterson, TCU is 95-56-4 against the second-half spread and 18-6 ATS as a double-digit underdog in full games since 2005.

3. Florida State at Syracuse

  • Florida State -2.5
  • Over/under: 68
  • 12 p.m. ET | ESPN

This game is projected to be within a field goal and boasts a high over/under of 68 points. What more do you need? It’s also a popular bet this weekend, ranking fourth among all games in tickets. Syracuse has put up 117 points over the first two weeks and will look to get to 3-0 against a tougher team. Florida State will try to avoid dropping to just 1-2.

4. Boise State at Oklahoma State

  • Oklahoma State -2
  • Over/under: 64.5
  • 3:30 p.m. ET | ESPN

This game features one of the tightest spreads of the weekend and features two very solid teams, ranking sixth in combined power rating. Oklahoma State has put up 113 combined points in its first two wins this season, although they came against Missouri State and South Alabama. A home game against a Boise State squad that currently sits 29th in our power ratings will be a much tougher test.

5. LSU at Auburn

  • Auburn -10.5
  • Over/under: 44.5
  • 3:30 p.m. ET | CBS

This game has a gross 44.5 over/under, but it still sneaks into the top five because it is the week’s most-bet game as of Friday afternoon. The money is almost dead even on both sides, but 67% of the bets are on LSU to cover the double-digit spread on the road. Our experts are wary that will happen.


The Perfect Saturday

12 p.m. ET: Florida State at Syracuse (ESPN), Oklahoma at Iowa State (ABC/WatchESPN)

3:30 p.m. ET: Boise State at Oklahoma State (ESPN), LSU at Auburn (CBS)

Evening: Alabama at Ole Miss (ESPN), Ohio State at TCU (ABC/WatchESPN)

Late night: Washington at Utah (ESPN), Arizona State at San Diego State (CBSSN)


All Games

Credit:

Sep 1, 2018; Orlando, FL, USA; Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (13) warms up prior to the game against the Louisville Cardinals at Camping World Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

Follow Bryan Mears on Twitter
@bryan_mears

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# BETS
59
-4
59
-3.5
64.5
-11
67.5
-7.5
52
-3
53.5
-4.5
48
PK
47.5
+2.5
50.5
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50
-6.5
-2.5
44
-2.5
43.5
55
-4.5
54
-3
-3
54.5
-2.5
55
-6
66.5
-5.5
68.5
48
-11
49.5
-12
-2.5
73
-4
74.5
67.5
-5
60
-3
-3
53.5
-2.5
51.5
-1.5
57.5
-1
60
55
-3.5
55.5
-3
61
-3.5
60
-6
41
-2
40.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-3.5
-3
47
-4
48
-6.5
55
-3.5
55
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
68
54.5
-6.5
55
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-4
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60
56
-11
55
-11.5
79
-13.5
80.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-5
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74
45
-6.5
46
-7
58.5
-4.5
58.5
-5.5
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
47.5
-6.5
58.5
-5
58
-6.5
58
-10.5
58
-11.5

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