College Football Sharp Report: Pros Betting Notre Dame-Northwestern, 4 Other Games

Nov 03, 2018 10:18 AM EDT
  • Before placing your Week 10 college football bets, you might want to know which bets sharps are making.
  • Sharps are bettors with long track records of consistent success.
  • Their favorite Week 10 plays include bets on Notre Dame-Northwestern, Nebraska-Ohio State, and Georgia-Kentucky.

If you’ve read our weekly college football sharp report before, you know the spiel by now. But in case you haven’t, here’s the deal:

“Sharps” are bettors with long track records of consistent success. And when I say long, I’m talking several years — decades, even. When a sharp places a bet, books take notice and often adjust their lines as a result.

By tracking these line moves, we can determine the bets sharps are making, assuming we have a few more bits of information — which we do.

The tools at The Action Network and Sports Insights allow us to track each time a wager comes in that changes the market price of a given bet (this is called a steam move).

We also track the number of tickets being placed on each side of a game, as well as the percentage of actual dollars. Comparing those figures to the line movement is one of the easiest and most effective ways to locate sharp action.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the Week 10 games drawing the most action from wiseguys.


>> All odds as of 12:30 p.m. ET on Friday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college football odds and track your bets.


All games Saturday, Nov. 3.

Nebraska @ Ohio State

12 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Nebraska (moved from +21 to +18)

Attracting 79% of bettors in what’s on pace to be the third-most heavily bet game of the weekend, Ohio State is one of the most popular bets on the entire Saturday slate.

Despite that, the Buckeyes’ line has fallen by a full field goal from its opening number.

Nebraska has triggered six Sports Insights Bet Signals — indications of sharp action causing the entire market to adjust lines — including one at the current number of +18.

So even though sportsbooks may have no liability on the Huskers — who’ve picked up only 17% of dollars wagered — oddsmakers have enough respect for the wiseguys on Nebraska that they’ve brought this line down considerably.


Michigan State @ Maryland

12 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Maryland (moved from +3 to +2.5)

Like Nebraska, Maryland has been one of the more contrarian plays of the weekend, getting only 24% of bets.

Also like Nebraska, Maryland has been on the receiving end of six Bet Signals so far this week. That sharp action has brought the Terps off the key number of +3 to +2.5.

If you’re looking to follow the wiseguys on this play, however, it’s worth noting that each sharp move has come at +3, so sharp bettors have yet to confirm value inside the key number.


Georgia @ Kentucky

3:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Kentucky (moved from +10 to +8.5)

Sharps have been pounding Kentucky throughout the week, moving the Wildcats from 10- to 8.5-point underdogs against Georgia. Like both games above, that movement has come despite Kentucky seeing the minority of bets.

Seventy percent of bettors are taking the road favorite to cover the spread, but Kentucky has triggered five Bet Signals, causing oddsmakers to reduce this margin.

Similar to the Maryland situation, though, all five signals have come at the key number of +10.

Notre Dame @ Northwestern

7:15 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: Notre Dame (moved from -7.5 to -10)

Big-name schools listed as favorites can almost always be counted on as public plays. But that isn’t the case here, as Notre Dame has attracted just 46% of bets.

Those bets have accounted for 57% of dollars, meaning bigger wagers are behind the Irish. They’ve also triggered four Bet Signals throughout the week, the most recent of which came at -9.5.

UCLA @ Oregon

7:30 p.m. ET

Sharp angle: UCLA (moved from +13 to +10.5)

After being considered a potential contender for the College Football Playoff a few weeks ago, Oregon has dropped two straight games to fall to 5-3 overall.

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that public bettors are expecting a bounce back from a team that spent much of this season ranked inside the top 25, especially against a 2-6 UCLA team.

Seventy-eight percent of bettors, in fact, have laid the points with the Ducks, but those points have diminished despite the support.

UCLA’s 22% of bets have accounted for 31% of dollars wagered, and the Bruins have triggered six Steam Moves, all of which have contributed to the line move.

Credit:

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miles Boykin

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
58.5
+8.5
59
+10.5
51.5
+15
51.5
+15
52
-18
52
-19.5
68
+13.5
68
+14
80
+2
84
+1.5
54
-3
49
-3
59
+3
56.5
+4
53.5
+3
52
+5.5
61
-17
59.5
-17
57
-7
57.5
-7
52
-24
52.5
-24
55.5
-14
54
-13.5
58.5
-18
58
-18
51
+17
51
+17
60.5
-25
58.5
-26
41
-14
40.5
-13.5
47.5
-2
47.5
-2.5
53.5
+8
54
+10.5
44
-13.5
44
-13
68
-3
67.5
-2.5