College Football Week 7 Sharp Betting Picks: Georgia vs. Alabama, Miami vs. Pittsburgh Among Shifting Odds
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Mac Jones.
- Kentucky-Tennessee, Pitt-Miami, and yes, Georgia-Bama.
- Sharp bettors have been all over the board heading into Week 7 of the college football season.
- Danny Donahue takes a deep look at how the sharps are betting some of Saturday's biggest matchups.
For sharp bettors, how “big” a game is doesn’t play a role in their likelihood to bet it. Saturday’s Georgia-Alabama game, for example, wouldn’t attract the pros just for the sake of being a matchup of No. 2 vs. No. 3 in the country.
It would, however, attract them if it was offering value. And apparently it is.
According to our PRO Report feature, sharps have found a bet worth making on the SEC showdown, along with a few other earlier kicks in Week 7.
Let’s break it all down:
Data as of 3 p.m. ET Friday. For immediate access to our College Football PRO Report, start a Free Trial today! You’ll also get:
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Kentucky vs. Tennessee
12 p.m. ET | SEC Network
Sharp bettors have taken a slight liking to Kentucky, and if history, as well as our projection, is any indication, there’s good reason for that.
A Sports Insights Bet Signal was triggered early in the week on Kentucky, confirming at least one case of sharp action hitting the Wildcats.
Initially, that sent this line down to Tennessee -4.5 — and some books are actually still holding onto that — but most have made their way back up toward the opening line.
Given how sharps reacted to that number previously, it shouldn’t come as a surprise if they make another Kentucky move, especially if the line ever reaches the key number of +7.
Sharp Action edge: Kentucky
As an underdog in a heavily-bet conference game, Kentucky fits into one of our appropriately-named PRO Systems: Conference Matchup Heavily Bet.
The system has 58% win rate since 2005 on a sample of more than 450 games (260-189-9 against the spread).
PRO Systems edge: Kentucky
According to Collin Wilson’s college football power ratings, there’s a good reason for betting edges to be popping on the Wildcats.
He pegs this game at just Tennessee -1.5, giving some considerable value to the underdog at the current line.
Model Projections edge: Kentucky
Navy vs. East Carolina
12 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Another noon ET kickoff is attracting sharp bettors, and this time there’s even further indication of that professional activity. Our projections also suggest that this line isn’t high enough.
To be fair, both sides of this game have triggered Sports Insights Bet Signals, meaning sharps aren’t necessarily in complete agreement. But with seven landing on the Midshipmen, it’s clear that they’re the slightly preferred side.
Sharp Action edge: Navy
Making that sharp edge even more clear, the 51% of bettors on Navy have generated 93% of the actual money landing on this spread, meaning bigger bettors — the ones more likely to be sharps — are taking the favorite.
Big Money edge: Navy
Once again, our projected spread — Navy -4.5 — for this game suggests some significant value, especially considering that the difference between it and the current line crosses over two key numbers: 3 and 4.
Model Projections edge: Navy
Pittsburgh vs. Miami
12 p.m. ET | ACC Network
It’s not just spreads that are garnering pros’ attention this weekend. And it’s not just pros that are betting this Pitt-Miami under.
Our top college football bettors have also taken a liking to the under, and the weather forecast suggests that to be right side as well.
Four SI Bet Signals have confirmed sharps to be on this under, which has been part of the reason for the line’s four-point drop from 51.5 to 47.5.
Sharp Action edge: Under
Another reason for this line fall? The weather.
Wind is expected to be blowing across the field from 16 to 17 mph throughout the game, which fits this game into our Windy Under PRO System. Since 2005, games played in winds of 13+ mph have hit the under at a 57% rate.
PRO Systems edge: Under
As of Friday afternoon, two of our college experts have bet on this under.
You can follow all of our experts’ picks and get notified immediately when they make them in the Action App.
Top Experts edge: Under
Georgia vs. Alabama
8 p.m. ET | CBS
As mentioned atop this post, sharps care about a game’s value, not its importance. That said, there are times where the biggest games offer value, and this is one.
As of writing, bettors are split down the middle on this total. But even with the 50-50 distribution, the number has been bumped up by two points from 56 to 58.
Why? Because sharps are finding value on the over.
Two Sports Insights Bet Signals have been triggered on the over — at 56.5 and 57.5 — confirming the professional activity, and convincing oddsmakers to adjust their lines.
Sharp Action edge: Over
Further confirming that side, all the while giving even more reason for a line move, the 50% of bets that have hit the over have accounted for 84% of actual money landing on the total.
Big Money edge: Over
Once again, our experts are in line with the sharps. Two more have taken this over heading into Saturday.
Top Experts edge: Over
Check out our new College Football PRO Report, where we highlight key factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.