The Florida State Seminoles take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack in Raleigh, NC, on Friday, Nov. 21. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Florida State is favored by 5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -205. NC State, meanwhile, enters as a +5 underdog and is +175 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 59.5 total points.
Here’s my Florida State vs. NC State prediction and college football picks for Friday, November 21.
Florida State vs NC State Prediction
- Florida State vs. NC State Pick: Florida State -4.5
My NC State vs. Florida State best bet is on the Seminoles to cover a short number on the road. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Florida State vs NC State Odds
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
| NC State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 59.5 -110o / -110u | +175 |
- Florida State vs NC State Spread: Florida State -5, NC State +5
- Florida State vs NC State Over/Under: 59.5 Points
- Florida State vs NC State Moneyline: Florida State -205, NC State +175
Florida State vs NC State College Football Betting Preview
Florida State Seminoles Betting Preview: Talented But Inconsistent Contender
Perhaps this section will be one of excuses for Florida State, but this team's schedule has been one from hell — a situational nightmare from the get-go.
Florida State secured its resounding win over Alabama to open the year and then obliterated its next two feeble opponents by a combined 130 points (East Texas A&M, Kent State). Once ACC play began, things fell apart for the now 2-5 Seminoles.
FSU lost its first game on the road against a surprise and upstart Virginia team (now 9-2) in a wild double overtime game.
It followed that up with a loss to Miami (10th in aggregate power ratings) and Pitt (29th) before reeling and stumbling to an ugly 20-13 loss at Stanford (a 10:30 p.m. ET kick in front of dozens of Stanford fans — it's a weird place to play).
The bye week comes and goes, and FSU has won two of its last three in decisive fashion, losing at Clemson in an environment that's difficult to play in no matter the state of the Tigers (Clemson is 63-5 in Death Valley since 2015, including 11-3 the last two seasons, both of which were considered "down years").
OK, so maybe Florida State isn't the fringe playoff contender some expected after Week 3. But it's foolish to assume this is a bottom-half ACC team, either.
Gus Malzahn improved this team from the worst power conference offense in the country last year to a top-30 one this year, including a top-15 rushing attack in terms of Success Rate.
FSU generates a quality drive on over 54% of its possessions and scores the 25th-most points per drive in the country. Its undersized skill corps more than makes up for that thanks to dynamic athleticism and a great scheme.
The problem comes in close game mismanagement — something Mike Norvell is becoming notorious for. FSU is 0-4 in one-score games this season and 4-11 outright against ranked teams under Norvell.
The gist is, when FSU can control the game, it usually dominates opponents (see: 42-7 over a bowl-eligible Wake Forest). But resilience is not this team's forte, and more physical opponents can really disrupt the Noles' flow (see: 24-10 at Clemson).
North Carolina State Wolfpack Betting Preview: Consistency Remains Missing Piece
NC State is sure turning out to be the pesky opponent that hot teams stub their toe against.
The Wolfpack are responsible for a 34-31 win over Virginia (just the Hoos' second loss on the season) and a 48-36 upset of Georgia Tech (the Jackets' only loss on the season).
But they also have ugly losses to Virginia Tech (23-21) and Duke (45-33), plus blowout losses to Notre Dame (36-7) and recently Miami (41-7).
Under defensive coordinator D.J. Eliot, the Wolfpack stop unit has taken a bend-don't-break approach.
It allows quality drives on 56.3% of opposing possessions and ranks 116th in points per drive allowed (2.88). This approach works against teams that struggle in the red zone or finishing drives but can get ugly quickly against more competent offenses.
This isn't your NC State defense of the early 2020s anymore under Tony Gibson. There aren't the workhorses like Payton Wilson. It's a defense that's regressed into one of the worst units in the ACC.
Offensive weapons RB Hollywood Smothers and TE Justin Joly returned to the field in a limited capacity last week following injuries. When Smothers and Joly are in the lineup, NC State's offense is far more dangerous.
When either player is out or limited, the majority of work lands on 6-foot-6 QB CJ Bailey's shoulders.
He's a dynamic playmaker who threatens with both his arm and his legs. Bailey extends plays with his athleticism and ranks third in the ACC with over 2,500 passing yards (19 touchdowns, nine interceptions).
But the offensive weapons are, at times, not able to offset the hole dug by the defense. NC State ranks 52nd in Points Per Drive and 73rd in Success Rate.
To sum this team up in just one word: average.
It's an average football team that's shown average results with both upsets and blowouts to varying degrees. It's a team that will return to the national median even if some performances skew one way or another.
Florida State vs NC State Pick, Betting Analysis
The winner of this game secures a bowl berth.
That's not quite the accomplishment to these programs as others, but missing a bowl would be a disastrous blemish on the coaching staff's resume and may be the straw that breaks the camel's back for either Norvell or Dave Doeren.
Both teams have shown a tendency this year that points to backing Florida State on the road despite the move through -3.
FSU, when capable, has blown opponents out by an average +23 points per game against power conference competition (Alabama, Wake Forest, Virginia Tech).
NC State has been blown out by more talented teams like the aforementioned Notre Dame and Miami; in power conference losses, NC State has an average -19.2 scoring margin (Duke, Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Pitt, Miami).
The chasm between 5-5 for both of these teams is immense. FSU has the ceiling to run away with this game, and NC State has the floor to be run out of its own building.
NC State allows way too many quality drives, and FSU capitalizes on those scoring opportunities with regularity. A bend-don't-break approach with this run game and these athletes is a recipe for disaster.
There's a reason FSU didn't see much resistance moving through -3 to -3.5 and up to -4.5. Aggregate power ratings make the 'Noles a -7 road favorite, which means there's still meat on the bone.
If sharp bettors were excited about NC State, we would have seen this line at least waver in the opposite direction. But we haven't yet.
I'll combine the power ratings with the room for ceiling games for both teams and lay the points with the visitors.
Pick: Florida State -4.5
Florida State vs NC State Betting Trends
