The Georgia State Panthers take on the Troy Trojans in Troy, Alabama. Kickoff is set for 4 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Troy is favored by 11 points on the spread with a moneyline of -450. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Georgia State vs. Troy prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Georgia State vs Troy Prediction
- Georgia State vs. Troy Pick: Georgia State +11 (-110, bet365)
My Troy vs. Georgia State best bet is on the Panthers to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Georgia State vs Troy Odds
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+11 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +350 |
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-11 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -450 |
- Georgia State vs Troy point spread: Troy -11 (-110), Georgia State +11 (-110)
- Georgia State vs Troy over/under: 51.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Georgia State vs Troy moneyline: Georgia State +350, Troy -450
Georgia State vs Troy Preview
This game triggered one of our Action PRO betting systems, powered by Evan Abrams.
In both regular season and postseason college football, home favorites in conference play who have performed poorly against the spread in recent games are often overvalued.
A string of ATS losses signals that market expectations have consistently outpaced on-field results, yet public perception and home-field bias can still inflate the line.
Conference opponents, familiar with schemes and tendencies, are well-positioned to exploit these weaknesses.
This creates an environment where fading the struggling home favorite offers consistent value.
I couldn't imagine backing Troy — the struggling home team — as a double-digit favorite. The Trojans have scored a combined 10 points over the past two weeks, as they haven't been able to get anything going on offense.
Georgia State is 1-9 ATS this season, but TJ Finley is still a quality quarterback, and the Panthers rank 31st nationally in EPA per Dropback.
Pick: Georgia State +11 (-110, bet365)
