College Football Odds, Picks for Georgia Tech vs Ole Miss: Bet the SEC Side

It’s measuring-stick time for Georgia Tech.

A year removed from a 42-point home, shutout loss at the hands of Ole Miss, the Yellow Jackets have a chance to see how much they’ve improved under head coach Brent Key.

It won’t be easy against a ranked Ole Miss team that has one of the best running backs in the country and is off to an undefeated start with a game in Tuscaloosa waiting in the wings.

Will the Yellow Jackets be the latest ACC team to show superiority over the SEC, or will the Rebels buck that 2023 trend?

The Rebels' win over a Tulane team sans Michael Pratt was not as easy as most projected, but it was a 17-point win and cover nonetheless.

One of the biggest reasons for the Rebels’ first-half struggles and potential cause for concern in the immediate future was the injury to former All-Conference USA receiver Tre Harris.

The transfer wideout caught his fifth touchdown of the season on the first drive of the game before departing after the second possession. Ole Miss didn’t score a touchdown again until the third quarter.

Lane Kiffin described Harris’ injury as not being long term, but with a game at Alabama on deck, there’s a slim chance Jaxson Dart will have his best receiver to throw to against Georgia Tech.

Dayton Wade and Jordan Watkins are capable replacements, but more important than them will be the performance of the Ole Miss offensive line. The Rebels allowed four sacks against Tulane and rank 103rd in the country with 14 tackles for loss allowed.

Worse, Quinshon Judkins – the Preseason All-SEC first teamer – has hit a bit of a sophomore slump, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry with a long run of 13 yards against two non-Power Five foes.

But if there were ever a week for that to turn around, it’d be here against the Yellow Jackets, who rank 120th in run defense and allowed 316 rushing yards to the Rebels last year.

Defensively has been a bit of a mixed bag for Ole Miss. The Rebels have struggled with explosive plays, allowing a 75-yard rushing touchdown against Mercer — which drew the ire of Kiffin towards new defensive coordinator Pete Golding — and a pair of receptions longer than 40 yards against Tulane and backup quarterback Kai Horton.

Haynes King will be the best passer the Ole Miss defense has seen to date, so continuing to generate pressure is a must. Only eight teams have more sacks than the Rebels this season, while Georgia Tech is tied for eighth in sacks allowed.

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Just how far has Georgia Tech come in a year?

The 42-0 demolition at home by Ole Miss in 2022 helped lead to Geoff Collins’ firing two weeks later. Key was named as the replacement and has coached the Yellow Jackets to a 5-5 record since (1-1 in 2023).

The biggest offseason addition has been former Texas A&M quarterback King. King had a splashy start to the season against Louisville — throwing for 313 yards and three touchdowns — but his interception and lost fumble directly led to 10 Louisville points in a five-point win by the Cardinals.

King had help in the running department from a collective effort of backs. Georgia Tech ran for 268 yards against South Carolina State and 175 against Louisville.

The biggest X-factor in this game will be Georgia Tech’s run defense. The Yellow Jackets are 120th in run defense, allowing 211.5 yards per game. That includes 196 yards to an FCS team last week.

Georgia Tech wasn’t much better last season (189 yards per game) and lost two of its most productive tacklers in Ayinde Eley and Charlie Thomas. Reinforcements were brought in via the transfer portal, but they’ve yet to pay off.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Tech and Ole Miss match up statistically:

Georgia Tech Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	18	45
Line Yards	14	29
Pass Success	25	25
Havoc	48	23
Finishing Drives	46	9
Quality Drives	13	21

Ole Miss Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	60	60
Line Yards	76	65
Pass Success	17	78
Havoc	81	125
Finishing Drives	29	65
Quality Drives	15	93

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	117	4
PFF Coverage	66	28
Special Teams SP+	81	50
Middle 8	13	11
Seconds per Play	25.6 (51)	21.9 (10)
Rush Rate	51.8% (94)	49.6% (93)

Against an SEC opponent, the absence of Harris would be a big deal. Against a porous Georgia Tech front seven, that won’t be the case.

Judkins has failed to meet the expectations associated with being named to pretty much every preseason watch list, but this is the perfect get-right game for the sophomore running back. Judkins had 98 yards and two touchdowns splitting carries with Zach Evans a year ago against the Yellow Jackets, and he should be in for something of similar quality this time around.

King is still working into a new offense with first-year coordinator Buster Faulkner, and he’s had a propensity to turn the ball over dating back to his career with the Aggies.

The Rebels have a game against Alabama next week, but Georgia Tech's run defense has been so bad that even the Ole Miss backups should be effective when the team tries to slow things down.

Also, don't forget that the backup to Dart is Spencer Sanders, who's more than capable of putting up points.

Georgia Tech has improved from a season ago, but the distance between these two programs is still at least three scores, even in a sandwich spot for the Rebels.