The Illinois Fighting Illini take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, Indiana. Kickoff is set for 12:00 p.m. EDT on BTN.
Illinois is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -370. The total is set at 56 points.
Here’s my Illinois vs. Purdue prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4, 2025.
Illinois vs Purdue Prediction
- Illinois vs. Purdue Pick: Purdue +9.5 (-110, bet365 | Play to +8.5)
My Purdue vs. Illinois best bet is on the Boilermakers to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Illinois vs Purdue Odds
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | -370 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 56 -110o / -110u | +290 |
- Illinois vs Purdue point spread: Illinois -9.5 (-110), Purdue +9.5 (-110)
- Illinois vs Purdue over/under: 56 (-110o / -110u)
- Illinois vs Purdue moneyline: Illinois -370, Purdue +290
Illinois vs Purdue Pick
This is the most obvious situational spot on the board with the Illini finding themselves in a potential flat spot following two extremely emotional games against ranked opponents (Indiana, USC).
Oh, and did I mention this will be their sixth straight game without a break, and they have Ohio State coming to Champaign next Saturday?
Meanwhile, Purdue will come in as the much fresher team following its bye week, which should prove even more valuable for a team with an entirely new roster and coaching staff. Those two weeks should do wonders from a preparation perspective.
For what it's worth, Illinois found itself in a similar spot last season against Purdue in a game sandwiched between four ranked matchups. The Illini had to survive a two-point conversion attempt in a 50-49 overtime win against a completely incompetent Boilermakers bunch that finished with one win in 2024. And Illinois played that game at home following a bye week.
This Purdue team is obviously significantly improved under head coach Barry Odom, who can thank quarterback Ryan Browne for playing at an extremely high level over the first month of the season. The Boilermakers should be able to move the ball against an Illinois defense that still has some holes, especially without the services of star cornerback Xavier Scott.
The Illini have been quite fortunate since the start of last season, so maybe we see some of that overdue regression. So far this season, they have converted all five fourth-down attempts, and they boast a +5 turnover margin (meanwhile, Purdue sits at -5).
It's also worth noting that both teams have played similarly competitive schedules and are only separated by 0.1 net yards per play, with the Boilermakers possessing a higher quality drive rate.
Yes, Illinois did look great last week, but it also caught USC in a nightmare travel spot with an 11 am local kick following the latest start time the previous Saturday. Don't forget this team got completely pantsed the week prior against an Indiana team that easily could have lost at Iowa last week.
I expect this battle for The Cannon (where the underdog has gone 12-6 ATS since 2005) to remain competitive throughout, so I'll happily take the points in a fantastic spot.
Pick: Purdue +9.5 (-110, bet365 | Play to +8.5)
