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As Lou Holtz once said, "it's a different team every week," and Minnesota has seemed to epitomize that this year. The Golden Gophers have victories in rival trophy games over Michigan and Iowa.
However, they followed the Michigan victory by losing 41-13 at Purdue, and they also lost 38-13 to Mississippi State in a non-conference game.
Now, after knocking off Iowa, oddsmakers are anticipating another blowout loss as they head to Bloomington to take on the defending champions.
Meanwhile, Indiana is coming off a pair of classic Big Ten brawls against conference blue bloods Ohio State and Michigan. It split the matchups, losing 19-15 (by an inch) to OSU and winning 13-6 in overtime at Michigan.
After a chaotic week, the Hoosiers actually gained ground in the polls and are now the No.4 team in both polls before the CFP rankings come out next week.
Indiana will look to get its offense going, but that will likely involve getting Charlie Becker the ball early and often. Read on for my Minnesota vs. Indiana parlay.
So, here's my Indiana vs. Minnesota picks and college football picks for college football Week 9 on Saturday, October 31.
Indiana vs. Minnesota Picks, Parlay
- Drake Lindsey 150+ Passing Yards (-168)
- Charlie Becker 70+ Receiving Yards (-162)
- Minnesota +21.5 (-136)
- Under 45.5 (-205)
Parlay Odds: +473 via FanDuel
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Indiana vs. Minnesota Odds
| Minnesota Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+20.5 -110 | 41.5 -102o / -120u | +1100 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-20.5 -110 | 41.5 -102o / -120u | -2300 |
Minnesota Player Prop: Drake Lindsey 150+ Passing Yards
Throwing for 1,472 yards through his first seven games, Golden Gophers quarterback Drake Lindsey has averaged 210 passing yards per game. Last week, he finished well below with 137 passing yards against Iowa.
However, he still made the biggest play of the game, connecting with Jalen Smith for a 39-yard gain to set up the game-winning field goal.
Lindsey has thrown for 200 yards in five of his seven games this season, but what stands out to me is Minnesota's two losses.
Lindsey threw for 279 yards against Mississippi State and 248 yards against Purdue while attempting 87 passes combined in those two games.
Indiana has a much better defense than either team, but it allows 191.6 passing yards per game.
Additionally, as a heavy underdog, Minnesota is expected to have a negative second-half game script and throw every down. If trailing and needing a comeback, Lindsey may get up to 40 attempts again, and that should help him get to 150 passing yards this week, if not 200 again.
Indiana Player Prop: Charlie Becker 70+ Receiving Yards
Last season, Charlie Becker emerged down the stretch despite the Hoosiers having two future NFL Draft picks in Omar Cooper Jr. and Elijah Sarratt. Now, Becker is the one playing his way into the first round as he forms a potent tandem with Nick Marsh.
Through eight games, Becker has hauled in 42 receptions for 726 yards and eight touchdowns. He ranks eighth in the FBS in yards and sixth in touchdowns.
He has gone three games in a row without finding the end zone, but he has recorded 70 receiving yards in five of his past seven games. He has recorded three 100-yard games in that span, including 165 yards on nine catches against Ohio State.
Last week, Becker was held to three catches for 32 yards at Michigan. The Wolverines have an elite defense, but Indiana's passing attack was also limited because Josh Hoover has been playing hurt and was nearly pulled.
However, head coach Curt Cignetti gave a positive update on his status on Monday, and he's listed as probable on the availability report.
Still, I would prefer to back Becker, as I don't expect him to be held in check two weeks in a row. Minnesota is allowing 165.1 passing yards per game this season. Becker and Marsh may combine for 165 receiving yards themselves.
Spread Pick: Minnesota +21.5
While I fully expect Indiana to win at home, I found this week's spread particularly strange. Indiana has scored 15 and 13 points in its last two games and now not only has to score 20 points this week, but win by over 20 points as well.
It has had a pair of difficult matchups the last two weeks, but Minnesota's defense is no slouch either. The Golden Gophers rank sixth in Havoc, 17th in total defense and 35th in scoring defense (20.1 PPG).
Indiana was dominant in Cignetti's first two seasons, with 17 of its 27 victories coming by 21 points or more while going 19-10 against the spread.
Indiana is still a very good team this season, but three of its four Big Ten victories have been by seven points or less. Michigan is allergic to scoring points of late, but Minnesota is at least on par with Northwestern and Nebraska.
Additionally, with a low total projected, points may be at a premium. Under those circumstances, it is difficult for large favorites to cover barring a shutout. If Indiana fails to cover again this week, it will drop to 1-8 ATS this season.
Over/Under Pick: Under 45.5
As mentioned, Indiana has struggled offensively, but it still has an elite defense, ranking second in scoring defense, third in Success Rate allowed, and eighth in total defense.
The Hoosiers are 5-3 to the under this season, including their last three games, which have all had 40 points or less.
Minnesota is 3-2 to the under against Power 4 competition this season. It has only surpassed 20 points in one of those games. Likely because of these trends, the total has come down to 40.5.
By moving it back five points, we get on the right side of key numbers as well as a negative correlation boost from the offensive props.
Indiana vs. Minnesota Same-Game Parlay
- Drake Lindsey 150+ Passing Yards (-168)
- Charlie Becker 70+ Receiving Yards (-162)
- Minnesota +21.5 (-136)
- Under 45.5 (-205)
Parlay Odds: +473 via FanDuel
