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Louisville-Syracuse Betting Preview: When Value Isn’t Valuable

Nov 09, 2018 4:12 PM EST

Louisville-Syracuse Betting Odds, Pick

  • Odds: Syracuse -21
  • Over/Under: 68.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Syracuse is entering rare air. Not only are the Orange ranked in the College Football Playoff Top 25 for the first time ever — they’re No. 13.

And not only is ‘Cuse favored against Louisville on Friday — it’s laying 21 points, the largest favorite it has been in a conference game since 2001 against Rutgers.


>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time odds and track your bets.


Louisville couldn’t be moving in a more opposite direction. The Cardinals have covered just once this season (a loss to Florida State) and are missing the spread by 17.2 points per game — the worst mark in the country by a touchdown.

Syracuse has also never received this kind of public support. As of Thursday evening, 86% of bettors were backing the Orange. Their highest is 85% against Buffalo in 2005 (see live betting data here).

How Inflated Is This Line?

By Collin Wilson

The point spread is purposely inflated against Louisville after it gave up 237 points in its past four games. The Action Network power ratings and S&P+ both make the game Syracuse -16.5, which has led to a little bit of contrarian betting on the Cardinals.

Syracuse might have some overlook to Notre Dame in Yankee Stadium next week, and its College Football Playoff ranking of 13th may provide a bit of pressure the Orange have not experienced before.

A second order win total differential of -1.4 indicates Syracuse has had plenty of help getting to 7-2 overall on the year. The Orange have been one of the luckier teams in the country, according to that measure.

Specifically last week the Orange had a 26% postgame win expectancy in a victory against Wake Forest. They were outgained and benefited from three Wake turnovers.

But Should You Bite the Bullet and Bet Louisville?

By Steve Petrella

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Credit:

USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Eric Dungey and Bobby Petrino

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
-8.5
58.5
-11
61
-15
51.5
-15
49
-13.5
68
-14
69.5
-2
80
-2.5
84
54
-3
49
-2.5
-3
59
-4.5
56
-3
53.5
-6.5
52
61
-17
59.5
-17
57
-7
57.5
-7
52
-24
52.5
-24
55.5
-14
53.5
-13.5
58.5
-18
58
-17
51
-5.5
47
-4
-17
51
-17.5
51
60.5
-25
58.5
-26
41
-14
40.5
-13
47.5
-2
47.5
-3
-8
53.5
-11
54
44
-13.5
44
-11
68
-3
67.5
-2