The Memphis Tigers take on the Rice Owls in Houston, Texas. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Memphis is favored by 14 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my Memphis vs. Rice prediction and college football picks for Friday, October 31.
Memphis vs Rice Prediction
- Memphis vs. Rice Pick: Rice +14 (-110, bet365)
My Rice vs. Memphis best bet is on Rice to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Memphis vs Rice Betting Odds
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| Rice Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14 -110 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
- Memphis vs Rice point spread: Memphis -14 (-110), Rice +14 (-110)
- Memphis vs Rice over/under: 49.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Memphis vs Rice moneyline: Memphis -600, Rice +450
Memphis vs Rice Game Preview
Why Memphis Can Cover
Memphis looks like the clear side headed for a comfortable win on paper. The Tigers are coming off a massive statement victory over USF that put them squarely in the driver’s seat for a potential College Football Playoff bid.
However, that high-emotion win often leads to a natural letdown spot, especially with a short turnaround and a Friday road trip to Houston.
Beyond the narrative, the metrics tell an even stronger story in favor of the underdog.
Memphis’s offense has been efficient but not as explosive as the rankings suggest.
The Tigers rank first nationally in both EPA per rush (0.31) and early-downs EPA per play (0.25), indicating they move the ball effectively when they stay ahead of schedule.
But once they’re off script, their weaknesses begin to show. They convert only 45.6% of third and fourth down opportunities (64th nationally) and face an average of 6.93 yards to go on third down. That limited situational efficiency is compounded by a defense that allows opponents to gain 43.6% of available yards and convert 44.6% on third downs.
Memphis’s defensive front is average against the run (-0.02 EPA per rush allowed, 63rd nationally), and its pass defense has struggled to prevent chunk plays, giving up 0.07 EPA per pass, ranking outside the top 80 nationally.
Injuries make that situation worse. Starting safety Kourtlan Marsh is out for the season, removing one of the team’s most reliable players from the secondary. Linebacker Cade Law remains sidelined, thinning the Tigers’ depth in the middle of the field.
Quarterback Brendon Lewis also left the USF game nursing a lower-body injury that limited his mobility. He was on crutches leading up to the game, but managed to suit up for the matchup.
This issue could hinder Memphis’s ability to extend plays and leave it without Lewis for the entire game. The Tigers are clearly more talented, but they are vulnerable.
Why Rice Can Cover
The Owls' record may be poor, but they are not a complete pushover.
They are coming off a double-overtime win over UConn. This gritty performance instilled confidence in a team quietly finding its rhythm on offense.
Rice’s defense ranks 78th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed and 83rd in EPA per Rush allowed, with opponents gaining just 44.4% of available yards per drive.
The Owls' Early Downs EPA per Play allowed of -0.06 reflects how consistently they force offenses into second-and-long and third-and-long situations. The Owls allow only 45.1% conversions on third and fourth down and force an average of 7.58 yards to go on third down.
On the other side of the ball, Rice’s offense is built to shorten games and protect its defense. The Owls average 38.1% of available yards per drive, often trying to grind the clock and sustain drives.
That ball-control style is ideally suited to frustrate a Memphis team that relies on rhythm and tempo to separate from opponents. Long story short, the Owls' offense is not elite, but if they can sustain drives, they will keep the Memphis offense off the field.
How To Make Memphis vs Rice Picks
I cannot stress enough how much the situational spot impacts the handicap. Memphis is still riding the high of its win over USF, which revived its season.
Now, after a short week away from home, the Tigers must refocus against a scrappy Rice team that can control the clock and exploit the Tigers' defensive weaknesses.
The metrics are not pretty for the Owls, but there are enough areas where I think they should be able to keep this game within a two-touchdown margin.
Memphis has everything to lose in this spot and limited depth to lean on, while Rice is surging with quiet confidence and no pressure.
I also really liked what I saw from quarterback Chase Jenkins last week. He has yet to throw an interception this season. Running back Quinton Jackson exploded the previous week as well, and he's been effective on the ground for the Owls, perhaps allowing them to extend drives while keeping the Memphis offense off the field.
Expect the Owls to control tempo, capitalize on Memphis’s defensive lapses, and ride the energy from last week’s win to hang within the number.
Memphis might escape with a win, but the situational and statistical indicators make Rice +14 the clear value play on Friday night.
Pick: Rice +14 (Play Smaller at +13.5)
Memphis vs Rice On TV
- Time: 7 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN2
