College Football Odds, Picks for Miami (OH) vs Cincinnati: Bearcats Aiming for a Blowout

This week, the Miami (OH) RedHawks will travel to Nippert Stadium to take on the Cincinnati Bearcats. This in-state rivalry is known as the Battle for the Victory Bell. 

This will be the 127th meeting between these two squads, with Cincinnati having won the last 16 matchups. Last year, the Bearcats won 38-17.

Miami (OH) hasn't been within 20 points of Cincinnati in their last five meetings, but the RedHawks are hoping that this will change with Scott Satterfield as the new Cincinnati head coach.

Let’s dive into my preview and best bet for the Miami (OH) vs. Cincinnati.

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Through two weeks, Miami (OH) sits at 1-1, with a loss to the Miami Hurricanes and a 41-28 win over UMass last week.

Offense was an issue for Miami (OH) last year. The RedHawks didn’t start this year much better, putting up a ninth-percentile Success Rate against the Hurricanes. 

While the overall scoreboard reflected well on the RedHawks in Week 2, their underlying metrics weren’t quite as impressive. In this game, Miami (OH) had a 51st-percentile Success Rate and a 35th-percentile EPA per play. The RedHawks were able to rack up 8.40 yards per play, though, due to a really high 12% explosive play rate.

In this game, Miami (OH) was the beneficiary of a 99-yard TD pass and a fumble recovery touchdown. The RedHawks turned the ball over three times, but the Minutemen had two of their own to even this out.

There was a very real chance of Miami (OH) losing this game against a putrid UMass team, which doesn’t bode well for its outlook this season.

This year, Miami (OH) ranks 117th in Offensive Success Rate and 121st in Finishing Drives. The RedHawks' offense is currently rated 120th in FBS by SP+. The thought was that Brett Gabbert returning this year would lead to this offense improving, but that hasn't been the case through two games.

Defense was the strength of the team last year, as it ranked 37th in SP+ and 52nd in Defensive Success Rate. With a ton of returning production on this side of the ball, it was believed that the RedHawks’ defense would be just as good.

The Miami Hurricanes are on a different level from this team, so it probably isn’t fair to take too much from that game. However, even UMass (128th offense in SP+) put up a 56th-percentile Offensive Success Rate against this defense.

On a yards per play and EPA basis, Miami (OH) was able to stifle the Minutemen, so there's hope that it could show up on defense this week. But there's also a chance that the RedHawks can’t match up with Cincinnati.

In Week 1, Cincinnati got the benefit of playing Eastern Kentucky, where it showed out in a 66-13 win. Emory Jones (yes, that Emory Jones) was insanely efficient, going 18-of-22 through the air for 338 yards and five touchdowns.

Against a stronger Pittsburgh defense, the Cincinnati offense was not quite as well-oiled, but it still was able to squeak out a 27-21 win.

In this game, Cincinnati had a 33rd-percentile Success Rate and a 52nd-percentile EPA per play. Jones struggled a bit more, only throwing for 125 yards and tossing an interception.

On the year, Cincinnati is 40th in Success Rate and 14th in Finishing Drives. The Bearcats' passing game has been the strength of the team, ranking 15th in Success Rate and fourth in PPA — due in large part to their Week 1 drubbing of Eastern Kentucky. 

This Bearcats' defense showed out in Week 2. Pitt may not have a great offense, but it's still better than what Miami (OH) will be bringing this week. Cincinnati held the Panthers to a second-percentile Success Rate, 14th-percentile EPA per play and just 3.88 yards per play.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Miami (OH) and Cincinnati match up statistically:

Miami (OH) Offense vs. Cincinnati Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	102	64
Line Yards	113	87
Pass Success	117	33
Havoc	115	7
Finishing Drives	121	39
Quality Drives	52	46

Cincinnati Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	77	94
Line Yards	62	114
Pass Success	14	109
Havoc	76	87
Finishing Drives	16	82
Quality Drives	8	99

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	130	103
PFF Coverage	85	49
Special Teams SP+	16	76
Middle 8	98	19
Seconds per Play	32.8 (131)	28.5 (88)
Rush Rate	56.6% (80)	61.4% (18)

At the current point of this season, I’m not a fan of this Miami (OH) team. Its defense was rightfully killed by the Hurricanes, but even UMass was able to find some success against it.

Offensively, this team has been a bit of a disaster, as well. After seeing what Cincinnati’s defense did to Pittsburgh, I don’t have much hope for the RedHawks’ offense this weekend.

Cincinnati’s offense may end up being the team's weak point, but it should be good enough to put points on the board here. 

I would like the under in this game — if not for the possibility of the Bearcats scoring too much or the defense putting points on the board.

Instead, I’m taking Cincinnati to cover 14.5 points, as the spread should likely be closer to 20 based on the disparity between these two squads.