Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Prediction, Pick, Odds: Aggies Laying Too Many Points?
Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Texas A&M’s Ainias Smith.
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Odds, Prediction, Pick
| Mississippi State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -115 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +625 |
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -105 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -1000 |
College Station, Texas, welcomes the Mississippi State Bulldogs to square off against Jimbo Fisher and his Texas A&M Aggies in what has been yet another disappointing season for Texas A&M.
The Aggies currently sit at 5-4 on the season, while the Bulldogs sit at 4-5.
Both teams are still fighting for bowl eligibility at this point in the season, so both should be gunning to take care of business this week.
Can Texas A&M defend Kyle Field this week, or will the Bulldogs steal a win?
Read on for our Mississippi State vs Texas A&M Prediction, Pick, Odds.
Zach Arnett’s squad has had a roller coaster of a season thus far as they have remained around .500 the entire year. They have dropped two straight after winning two straight, so they will look to get back on track in one of college football’s toughest environments at Kyle Field. The Bulldogs need to win two of their final three to sneak into the postseason, so they should enter this one focused.
Will Rogers and the Bulldog offense continue to struggle. Rogers has only thrown for 10 touchdowns on the season, which translates to Mississippi State only scoring 16.8 points per game this season. The offense ranks 115th in Success Rate, which is awful for a Power 5 squad, especially in the SEC.
The offense may be able to take advantage of some explosive pass plays with their senior quarterback. But outside of that, points will likely be at a premium for the Bulldogs again this week, especially on the road.
Defensively, the Bulldogs have fared much better, allowing 25.8 points per game, which is impressive given how bad the offense has been. This defense is always on the field, and they still rank 57th against the ground game. The pass defense still needs work as they rank 118th against the pass. They will need to slow down the A&M pass attack and keep this one low-scoring to hang around in.
It is worth noting that Mississippi State has won their last two matchups outright, but the spread on this one is much larger than those two previous matchups.
I don’t understand this Texas A&M team, nor do many.
They have all the talent in the world and a previously lauded head coach because of his success at Florida State. But Jimbo Fisher is disappointing yet again this season. He needs to start winning games before his job becomes in question, and winning big at home would help put him back on track. The Aggies are at 5-4 and need to win out to salvage the season, as they will not be playing for the CFP or even the SEC championship despite their preseason aspirations. They need to pick up a statement win at home this week.
The Aggies offense took a hit when starter Connor Weigman went down in Week 4, and Max Johnson had to step back in to run the offense. Max got a little banged up himself last week, but is expected to roll this week and lead his team to a home win.
Johnson and the offense haven't been super impressive this season, but they play well enough to win games. They average 32.3 points per game, which is solid in the SEC. They rank 50th in Rush Success Rate and 57th in Pass Success Rate, but I think the key factor in helping them sustain that 32-points-per-game mark is that they rank second in average field position. Their defense puts them in short fields to take the pressure off the offense to move the ball. Max Johnson will need to have success throwing the ball downfield against a weak Bulldog secondary to blow them out.
The Aggies’ defense is dominant, as usual. With the home crowd behind them on a Saturday night in College Station, they should be able to shut down the Bulldogs. The Aggies only allow 21.5 points per game, ranking eighth in Rush Success Rate allowed and 26th in Pass Success Rate allowed. They have been able to swallow up some of the SEC’s best runners this season, and they should have no problem doing it again this week. I think the noise with the pass rush on this defense will cause problems for Will Rogers and the Bulldog offense.
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Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Mississippi State and Texas A&M match up statistically:
Mississippi State Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 101 | 8 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 3 | |
| Pass Success | 120 | 75 | |
| Havoc | 82 | 2 | |
| Finishing Drives | 70 | 24 | |
| Quality Drives | 86 | 35 |
Texas A&M Offense vs. Mississippi State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 57 | |
| Line Yards | 92 | 38 | |
| Pass Success | 57 | 120 | |
| Havoc | 52 | 84 | |
| Finishing Drives | 61 | 128 | |
| Quality Drives | 19 | 87 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 29 | 115 |
| PFF Coverage | 37 | 40 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 120 | 29 |
| Middle 8 | 120 | 12 |
| Seconds per Play | 28.0 (86) | 27.6 (80) |
| Rush Rate | 52.9% (80) | 49.3% (96) |
Mississippi State vs Texas A&M
Betting Pick & Prediction
Texas A&M needs a win badly this week, but so do the Bulldogs.
With the low total and the big spread, I figure this game will be pretty close with both defenses dominating.
So, I will take the Bulldogs, who have played the Aggies well historically, to hang around and cover +19.
Pick: Mississippi State +19
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