All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad blue-blood programs. That remains true in Week 7.
Which teams are going to make the College Football Playoff? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Denton, Texas, and Laramie, Wyoming.
While our fields may be blue, gray or teal, the money that can be won on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As Action Network’s resident Group of 5 guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often overlooked teams and matchups while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
Here are my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Friday and Saturday.
NCAAF Picks for Week 7 Group of 5 Games
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
USF vs North Texas Pick
We're getting things started early this week with a massive showdown in the American on Friday night.
After fast starts, these two teams are both in the top four on the odds board to win the conference this season.
North Texas is undefeated with one of the best offenses in the country, and South Florida is ranked No. 24 in the country with wins against Boise State and Florida.
The winner of this game is in the driver’s seat to reach the conference championship game and will be in a great position to reach the College Football Playoff.
South Florida started the year with a gauntlet schedule but picked up a pair of massive wins to start the season and to put itself on everybody’s radar.
Head coach Alex Golesh has an explosive offense led by veteran quarterback Byrum Brown. The dual-threat weapon has 10 touchdown passes and is the Bulls' leading rusher on the year.
The Bulls have struggled to run the ball consistently but have hit big plays when they’ve needed them. In fact, South Florida’s offense ranks 33rd in yards per game, but it sits just 113th in Success Rate.
This unit has not consistently been able to move the ball, but they've gotten by on explosive plays, ranking 14th in the country in Explosiveness.
The defense has been the same way. Teams have had success moving the ball, but the Bulls don't allow big plays, and they've found ways to tighten up in scoring positions and limit Finishing Drives.
USF has had the more high-profile wins, earning it national attention, and rightfully so. Golesh is already popping up on coaching candidate lists for Power 4 jobs.
But don’t sleep on North Texas and head coach Eric Morris. For a third straight season, he leads an electric offense in Denton.
North Texas sits eighth in the country in scoring behind an offense that has been both efficient and explosive.
Former walk-on Drew Mestemaker burst onto the scene with his performance in the First Responders Bowl last season and has this offense rolling.
Mestemaker has tossed 11 touchdowns with no interceptions. He has the third-highest PFF Passing Grade. Mestemaker has 10 big-time throws on the year with just one turnover-worthy play.
While South Florida has been more reliant on big plays, North Texas has a balanced offense that has had success moving the ball through the air with Mestemaker or on the ground with the duo of Makenzie McGill II and Caleb Hawkins.
The Mean Green have scored 18 touchdowns on the ground this year.
We've seen great offenses in Denton, but the defense has taken a massive step forward and will be the difference in this game.
North Texas ranks in the top 30 in Success Rate allowed and in preventing explosiveness on defense. It's been great against the pass with a strong secondary and terrific linebacker group.
South Florida will hit a few exciting big plays as it always does, but I trust the North Texas offense more to be consistent. It moves the ball well on the ground and through the air, and when it gets into scoring position, it converts.
The Mean Green have had 31 trips to the red zone this season. They've scored on 30 of those trips, and 25 of them were touchdowns.
This UNT team also boasts the best turnover margin in the country. Mestemaker and this offense have been elite at keeping the ball out of trouble, and coordinator Skyler Cassity has defense flying around and forcing turnovers.
Trust the North Texas offense to be more effective while the defense forces Brown into a mistake or two. Take the home team in what should be a wild atmosphere for a Black Out on Friday night.
Pick: North Texas -1.5
| | |
Wake Forest vs Oregon State Pick
You’ll have to hold your nose a bit here, but we're going to the Group of 5 (6?) adopted orphan in Oregon State here.
This is as buy-low as you can possibly get. The Beavers are 0-6 on the season and have covered just one spread. But let’s pump the brakes on Wake Forest a bit.
The Demon Deacons are 3-2, but their wins have come against a horrible Kennesaw State team by one point, FCS Western Carolina and the corpse of Virginia Tech with an interim coach.
Wake Forest ranks 126th in Success Rate and sits outside of the top 100 in both Rushing Success Rate and Passing Success Rate.
Quarterback Robby Ashford has just two touchdown passes all season with four interceptions for the Deacs.
Maalik Murphy has had issues with turnovers for Oregon State, but he's still the better quarterback in this matchup with a lot more upside.
Oregon State has done a solid job stopping the run this season and should be able to contain Ashford’s legs, keep him in the pocket and force him to throw.
Despite the 0-6 start, Oregon State has gotten super unlucky. Obviously, bad turnovers have been part of that.
But the Beavers actually had the higher net Success Rate in the game in four of their six losses. They've outgained their opponent in each of the last two games.
Oregon State is way overdue for some positive regression and turnover luck, and this is a great situational spot for the Beavers.
Wake Forest is traveling across the country from Winston-Salem, North Carolina, to Corvallis, Oregon, for a meaningless nonconference game with a bye week on deck.
Star WF running back Demond Claiborne has been dealing with injuries all season, and Ashford is banged up as well. Injuries are piling up in other spots as well for Wake Forest, and this is a spot where it just wants to get in and get out healthy for conference play.
We could see both Claiborne and Ashford limited in what they're asked to do here.
Meanwhile, the Beavers are at least still playing hard for Trent Bray and should come out desperate here for a win. I’ll take the three points with the home team.
Pick: Oregon State +3
| | |
San Jose State vs Wyoming Pick
I was very high on this Spartans team coming into the season, and they stumbled out of the gate, dropping two winnable games to Central Michigan and Stanford. But we have really seen the offense click into gear over the last two weeks.
The passing game has taken off under Walker Eget, who has 807 passing yards and six touchdowns in the last two games.
Eget lost superstar receiver Nick Nash, but Sacramento State transfer Danny Scudero has become the new favorite target. He leads the country in receiving yards this season and paces the Mountain West in catches, yards and touchdowns.
Defense has been a struggle for the Spartans, but this is a good matchup for them against a Wyoming offense that ranks outside of the top 100 in explosiveness and struggles to pass the ball consistently.
Quarterback Kaden Anderson is completing less than 55% of his passes and won’t be able to take advantage of the Spartans' rebuilt secondary.
Now that the Spartans offense has flipped the switch and hit its stride, I expect this team to go on a nice little run.
The struggling Wyoming offense should allow the San Jose State defense to do its part, while the Cowboys are unable to keep up with Eget and this passing attack.
Betting against Wyoming in Laramie is always terrifying, and my only hesitation here, but I think the market is underrating San Jose State after a slow start.
Pick: San Jose State -1.5
