College football Week 10 is here, which means it's time to dive into a couple of underdogs to bet on the moneyline.
Our Group of Five experts from the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast, Mike Calabrese and Joshua Nunn, came through with picks for Coastal Carolina vs. Marshall and Air Force vs. Army.
When parlayed together, these two Group of 5 'dogs pay out at over 4-1.
Let's take a look at our NCAAF picks and college football predictions in our Group of 5 moneyline underdog parlay for Week 10.
Coastal Carolina +180 vs. Marshall
| Marshall Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Coastal Carolina Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 55.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
By Joshua Nunn
Coastal Carolina really seems to have found its groove since Samari Collier took over at quarterback. He’s been throwing the ball well and adding a running threat that’s seriously ignited what had been a pretty pedestrian offense.
It was rough early on, but over the last couple of weeks, the Chants have looked like a totally different team offensively. In fact, their two best games of the season have come back-to-back recently.
Now, they’re set to face a Marshall defense that’s been pretty shaky, ranking 109th in Success Rate allowed, 123rd in Finishing Drives allowed and 125th in EPA Per Play allowed.
Marshall has had a couple of flashy showings at home the last few weeks, but its wins over Texas State and Old Dominion came more from good fortune and opponent struggles than dominant play.
So, it's a bit hard to pin down exactly how good Marshall really is right now.
For Coastal, it’s worth noting that it's held up decently against the pass, sitting 44th in Pass EPA allowed and 49th in Passing Success Rate allowed. P
lus, Marshall’s on the road this time around, which hasn’t been a great recipe for the Thundering Herd.
This feels like a prime opportunity for Coastal Carolina to step up and really jump-start its season. With the game at home on Thursday night, expect a fired-up crowd and a solid atmosphere.
If Coastal plays with the intensity it's shown recently, I’d say its chances to pull off the win are about 50-50, so I'll take a shot at +180.
Air Force -110 vs. Army
| Army Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -115 | 49 -110o / -110u | -110 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -105 | 49 -110o / -110u | -110 |
I’m backing Air Force here. The old-school thinking about these service academy matchups — that they’re always close, low-scoring affairs because the teams know each other inside and out — just isn’t cutting it anymore.
That was the 2010 narrative, but now, both Navy and Air Force are mixing things up with more complex passing games.
Air Force actually runs two different offensive systems.
It has its classic flexbone triple option, running it from under center or shotgun and blending elements as it goes. It can also shift gears into a legitimate downfield passing attack, something Army simply can't do.
Air Force quarterback Liam Szarka is on pace to finish with the second-most passing yards by a starting QB in program history. In last week’s game against Wyoming, the run game was rolling so well that Szarka threw it just eight times, while the Falcons piled up 330 rushing yards.
Over the season, Sarca’s averaged about 17 pass attempts per game, keeping defenses guessing.
Army’s defense, though, has zero pass rush. That’s a big problem because if Air Force flips into pistol or shotgun and lets Szarka work, I can see him throwing for over 200 yards again.
I haven’t been sold on Army’s offense since Bryson Daily left. He was one of my favorite college players ever. He helped Army close out games, was great in the red zone and added some pop with play-action and occasional downfield shots.
But this year’s Army offense is basically a one-trick pony: run, run, run. And it’s not even that effective, as the Black Knights rank outside the top 60 in Rushing Success Rate and dead last in creating big plays.
That’s an issue for them, especially against an Air Force defense that’s been a sieve when it comes to giving up explosive plays.
But importantly, the Falcons defense has improved a bit late in the season. They held Navy to 34 points, which might not sound amazing, but they tightened up situationally on third downs and in the red zone.
Air Force just needs to hold Army under 31 points. Its offense can handle the rest. If the Falcons get hot, they can make a bowl game. I think they’re the clear class of this matchup.
If you’re expecting another slow, grinding service academy battle, think again. This Air Force team is playing with a different mindset, and it's clicking on both sides of the ball. The Falcons are going to put up points and get the job done.
Group of 5 Moneyline Underdog Parlay for Week 10
- Coastal Carolina ML +180 vs. Marshall
- Air Force ML -110 vs. Army
Parlay Odds: +463 (bet365)
