You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.
To keep the chalk talk rolling this week, we're backing two favorites in the ACC.
Let's dive into our Week 10 college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Virginia vs. Cal and Florida State vs. Wake Forest on Saturday, Nov. 1.
Week 10 College Football Predictions, Picks
Collin Wilson: Virginia -6 vs. Cal
| Virginia Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
| Cal Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
I’m rolling with Virginia this week. Yeah, I know — it sounds wild.
The Cavaliers have been all smoke and mirrors recently, and they’ve had their share of luck. They probably shouldn’t be where they are right now.
But when it comes to Havoc on both sides of the ball, they’re flat-out dominating, and it really sticks out in this matchup.
Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele struggles big time when he’s pressured, posting a whopping 6.3% turnover-worthy play rate under duress. Virginia, meanwhile, ranks top-35 in pass rush.
UVA head coach Tony Elliott also fields a defense that ranks top-10 in passes defensed, a metric that combines pass breakups and interceptions.
There's a massive Havoc edge right there, so I think the line should probably be a little higher than it is.
JKS just isn’t good when under pressure, and Virginia can apply that.
Stuckey: Florida State -10 vs. Wake Forest
| Wake Forest Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +280 |
| Florida St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -360 |
I think quarterback Tommy Castellanos is going to suit up for Florida State, which is a pretty big deal considering Wake Forest’s defense is ranked top-10 when adjusted for opponent quality.
Now, do I really believe its defense is that dominant? No. But having Castellanos back in the lineup will certainly be important either way.
Now, Wake’s offense is downright awful, and I'm happy to fade it.
The Demon Deacons are also one of the worst teams in the country in the red zone when they actually get down inside the 20. For the season, Wake's 72% red-zone scoring percentage ranks 129th in FBS. It has scored only nine touchdowns on 25 trips (36%) inside the 20; only Nevada and UMass have a lower touchdown scoring rate.
Meanwhile, Florida State has been snakebitten lately, dropping four one-possession games in a row. I actually think this might be rock bottom for it.
If Wake Forest falls behind in this one and FSU can shut down the run, the Deacs' passing game is basically nonexistent.
The real question is, does Florida State even care? If it does, I like its chances to pull this off.
Wake’s offense just can’t finish drives, and when you factor in that its schedule has been much softer than FSU’s, this looks like a solid chance for the Noles to finally cash in.
Assuming Castellanos plays, give me Florida State to get the job done here.
