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We got the 3-0 sweep last weekend on these team totals! Clemson stayed well under the total for a winner. The Georgia Tech and Kansas team totals were closer calls, but both stayed under to help us to a sweep.
Week 9 doesn’t have quite as many games. There are a lot of teams on a bye this week. I also find the card a little bit tighter.
Still, I’ve been deep diving all week looking for team totals value, so let's dive into our NCAAF picks and college football predictions for this week's team totals.
Notre Dame vs Navy Pick
Notre Dame lost at BYU in its last game. That was a poor performance from the Fighting Irish, and they really can’t afford another subpar performance.
The margin for error isn’t very high. Notre Dame had a bye week to prepare for this Navy matchup, and I fully expect it to come out ready to roll.
The Irish rank first in the nation in first-half points per game at 25.0. Navy is sixth-worst in the nation in that area, allowing 21.8 points in the first half.
Navy’s pass defense is far worse this year than it was a year ago. The Midshipmen sit dead last nationally at 138th in QBR allowed and 133rd in passing explosiveness allowed. Notre Dame, meanwhile, ranks fifth in passing explosiveness.
Look for CJ Carr and company to connect on some big plays through the air here.
Notre Dame’s offense has gotten better at running the ball in recent contests. The Fighting Irish are up to 13th in the nation in Rushing Success Rate on offense. That should help them punch it in when they reach the red zone.
Navy’s pass defense doesn’t face anything in practice like it's going to see on Saturday. I think the Fighting Irish jump on the Mids early.
Pick: Notre Dame 1H Team Total Over 23.5
Confidence Rating: A
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Northwestern vs Oregon Pick
Oregon hasn’t been even close to the same offense without Dante Moore, who's now out for the season.
The Ducks have been the most disappointing team in the country, and it isn’t very close. Dan Lanning’s squad was expected to contend for a national title, and instead they'll just be finishing up this season and looking toward next year.
Northwestern has been far better than expectations, and Chip Kelly is still a fantastic offensive coordinator.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles had been a turnover machine in recent years, but he has been amazing in this offense. Chiles boasts an 85.1 PFF rating, and he has only four turnover-worthy plays all season.
The Wildcats are playing slowly, and they will run the football a lot. I think Northwestern will be able to shorten the game here.
The Ducks could muster only 10 points against the lowly Illinois defense last week and are averaging 14 points per game in their last three contests.
Northwestern is only allowing a touchdown on 39.1% of opponent trips into the red zone. Oregon might move the ball between the 20s, but I think it'll struggle to reach the end zone here.
The Wildcats' secondary is excellent, and I think it'll dare Oregon to try to beat them through the air.
Pick: Oregon Team Total Under 26.5
Confidence Rating: B+
Michigan vs Rutgers Pick
The Michigan defense has been elite all season. It certainly isn’t the fault of the defense that the Wolverines have lost three games already.
Last weekend, Michigan dropped a 13-6 overtime contest to Indiana, but the Hoosiers finished with only 212 yards of offense.
Rutgers will be without starting quarterback Dylan Lonergan here. Star wide receiver KJ Duff is also listed as doubtful for this game. While Lonergan isn’t that good, the second and third options for Rutgers have been terrible.
AJ Surace owns a 55.7 PFF rating, and Sean Ashenfelder has a 44.4 PFF rating.
Those guys have struggled mightily even with Duff in the game. Duff is one of the best wide receivers in the nation, and if he doesn’t play here, it'll be a huge hit to the Rutgers offense.
Michigan is a run-heavy offense. The Wolverines rank 106th in Rushing Success Rate and are only 134th in rushing explosiveness. I think they can move the ball here against a poor Rutgers defensive line, but it should result in Michigan having a huge time-of-possession edge.
This could be a sloppy game. Michigan isn’t an offense I want to trust to score a lot of points on anyone. I do trust the Wolverines defense, though. Rutgers is badly shorthanded, and it should be evident from the start on Saturday.
Pick: Rutgers Team Total Under 14.5
Confidence Rating: B-
