Welcome to our weekly Havoc Rankings, where the volatility of offenses and defenses will be graded for potential wagering.
New Mexico still leads the nation in Defensive Havoc, but Virginia Tech's recent victory over Clemson has the Hokies close to the top spot.
The safest offense in the nation has flipped from Air Force to Notre Dame, a product of the Falcons' loss to Wyoming. After losing just two fumbles the entire season, Air Force lost a grand total of three against the Cowboys.
For those unfamiliar, Havoc is the collection of stats that can derail offensive momentum on the defensive side of the ball, including tackles for loss, pass breakups, forced fumbles, interceptions, and sacks.
Havoc allowed, meanwhile, is a stat used to quantify an offense's ability to avoid chaos that creates a negative play. Offenses that are elite in Havoc allowed have a low number of fumbles, interceptions, and tackles for loss allowed.
Let's take a look at our college football picks for Nevada vs. UCLA and Week 9 Havoc Rankings for the upcoming week.
College Football Picks, Havoc Rankings
Nevada vs. UCLA Odds
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+22.5 -106 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | +1400 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-22.5 -114 | 44.5 -105o / -115u | -4000 |
This week brings UCLA's College Football Playoff run into scope, as the Bruins will step out of the Big Ten Conference to host Nevada. The Wolf Pack sit at 3-4 on the season with a tough schedule remaining to become bowl-eligible.
Nevada’s only win on the road this season came against UTEP in Week 6, but it ranks as one of the worst passing offenses in the nation.
Head coach Jeff Choate prefers a heavy rush attack despite ranking 123rd in fumbles lost. That number will be in the spotlight against a UCLA defense that's third of all FBS defenses in forced fumbles.
There should also be no resistance against UCLA's ground game, as the Bruins rank fourth in Rushing Success Rate. Nevada has struggled to stop any opponent from running the ball against a soft 130th-ranked strength of schedule.
The Wolf Pack rank 120th in Defensive Line Yards and a putrid 130th in Stuff Rate, so UCLA should dominate the line of scrimmage on Saturday.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings projects UCLA to exceed market expectations, power-rated as a 28-point favorite over Nevada.
Look for the running back tandem of Wayne Knight and Anthony Woods to steamroll the Nevada defense, while the Bruins' Havoc-minded defense forces the Wolf Pack into multiple fumbles.
Pick: UCLA -22.5
