Nevada vs UNLV Odds, Picks: Rebels Ready to Put on Show
Darryl Oumi/Getty Images. Pictured: UNLV quarterback Doug Brumfield.
Nevada vs UNLV Odds
| Nevada Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +400 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Though the matchup may only be for bragging rights, that’s more than enough for each program in this rivalry matchup between Nevada and UNLV.
Bowl eligibility was a near certainty for UNLV in September, as it opened the season winning four of its first five games. But the Rebels have hit a wall, dropping six contests in a row. Most recently, the program suffered a six-point loss in the Hawaiian Islands as 11-point favorites.
Nevada followed a similar, but harsher, trend this season. The Wolfpack won its first two games of the season against Texas State and New Mexico State. But since then, the program has lost its last nine contests by an average margin of 21 points per game.
Among those losses was a 14-point defeat to an FCS opponent in Incarnate Ward. In the last two weeks, the program has lost by a combined 65 points to Boise State and Fresno State.
Both programs will look to end their season on a positive note with a victory over their in-state rival.
Nevada Wolf Pack
There are very few positive things to say about this Nevada program. The offense and defense have been equally inefficient this season.
The Wolf Pack offense ranks 120th in the nation in scoring, putting up just 16 points per game. The offense ranks third-worst in yards per play, averaging just 4.0 and 126th in yards per game with 272 against FBS foes.
Quarterback Nate Cox has had a tough year as imagined. Though he stands tall at 6-foot-9, that height hasn’t translated to success. Cox is completing just 51% of his passes while averaging 5.7 yards per attempt.
The Wolf Pack’s offense boasts a well-balanced attack, rushing the ball on 50% of its plays this season. But the group has mustered only 3.2 yards per carry and 107 rushing yards per game — both outside the top 110 in the country.
The defense has been slightly better than the offense, but that isn’t saying a whole lot. The group allows just shy of 30 points per game. It’s been gashed on the ground, allowing 461 yards to Air Force and over 225 yards to Hawaii and Boise State.
In the last three weeks, it’s been the secondary that’s been exposed. That unit has given up an average of 320 passing yards.
UNLV Rebels
There's no sugarcoating the absolute collapse that occurred this season with the UNLV program. The group has now lost six games in a row, which doomed its bowl potential.
But we should still see the best effort in this game against a rival in Nevada.
The Rebels offense has had its up and downs this season. The struggles mainly came when quarterback Doug Brumfield was out of the lineup. In the two games without him under center, the group scored just seven points in each game. With Brumfield starting, the offense has averaged 30 points per game.
Michigan State transfer Ricky White has been the safety valve, securing nearly 25% of the teams’ receptions this season. He’s averaging a dozen yards per reception and found pay dirt four times. Kyle Williams has also amounted four touchdowns while averaging 58 receiving yards per game.
The Rebels defense has thrived at creating turnovers, ranking 36th in the nation with 18 forced turnovers this season. They will likely improve those numbers against a lackluster Nevada offense that will be pressing the issue and likely playing from behind.
UNLV has been strong against the run, allowing just 4.1 yards per carry. The secondary has looked a bit vulnerable allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt which ranks 103rd nationally. But Nevada’s aerial attack has been nonexistent this season.
Look for Austin Ajiake to have a big game. He’s the leader of the defense who has amounted to 70 total tackles with four sacks and two interceptions.
Nevada vs UNLV Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Nevada and UNLV match up statistically:
Nevada Offense vs. UNLV Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 124 | 121 |  |
| Line Yards | 124 | 106 | |
| Pass Success | 125 | 73 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 91 | 96 | |
| Havoc | 124 | 106 | |
| Finishing Drives | 111 | 91 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
UNLV Offense vs. Nevada Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 41 | 98 | |
| Line Yards | 96 | 79 | |
| Pass Success | 104 | 71 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 60 | 118 | |
| Havoc | 98 | 77 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 90 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 108 | 72 |
| PFF Coverage | 66 | 90 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 101 | 24 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.0 (35) | 27.1 (84) |
| Rush Rate | 52.2% (76) | 53.0% (70) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Nevada vs UNLV Betting Pick
Though both of these teams enter the game with significant losing streaks, this matchup will surely still be played with high intensity.
UNLV has shown signs of significant promise this season. It opened the year by winning four of its first five. Even through its losing streak, it has remained competitive against stiffer competition.
The offense has continued to put points on the board even against the most elite defenses in the Mountain West.
Meanwhile, Nevada has packed it in recently. The Wolf Pack have lost by a combined score of 82-17 over its last two weeks while looking uninspired.
I expect UNLV to come into this game fired up to put on a show in front of its fans at Allegiant Stadium. This one could get ugly fast.
Pick: UNLV -12 |
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