The New Mexico Lobos take on the UCLA Bruins in Pasadena, California, on Friday, Sept. 12. Kickoff is set for 10 p.m. ET on the Big Ten Network.
UCLA is favored by -15.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -700. New Mexico, meanwhile, comes in at +500 to pull off the upset. The total is set at 53.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. UCLA prediction and college football picks for Friday, September 12.
New Mexico vs UCLA Prediction
- New Mexico vs. UCLA Pick: Under 53.5
My UCLA vs. New Mexico best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico vs UCLA Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | +500 |
| UCLA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 53.5 -110o / -110u | -700 |
- New Mexico vs UCLA Spread: UCLA -15.5
- New Mexico vs UCLA Over/Under: 53.5 Points
- New Mexico vs UCLA Moneyline: New Mexico +500, UCLA -700
New Mexico vs UCLA Preview
New Mexico Lobos Betting Preview: What Should We Make of This Squad?
New Mexico is tough to read. In the Lobos' season opener, they played fairly well at Michigan, losing 34-17 with a few notable plays and a really nice game plan.
The following week, New Mexico beat Idaho State, 32-22, but it trailed in the fourth quarter.
The defense appears to be significantly better than last season, particularly when it comes to limiting explosive plays. The team is disciplined, committing just three penalties for 18 total yards through two games, but the offense, especially on the ground, took a sizable step backward.
Quarterback Jack Layne is averaging just 5.9 yards per target with one touchdown and three interceptions.
Montana State transfer Scottre Humphrey (174 yards) hasn't been able to get much going after contact, as his average of 2.68 yards after contact ranks ninth among Mountain West running backs (min. 20 attempts).
Up front, New Mexico has generated a decent push, and Humphrey takes advantage of those lanes created, but at the second level, almost nothing is happening.
The other concern on offense is the lack of receivers creating separation. Tight end Dorian Thomas dominates the target share (20, accounting for nearly 30% of Layne's targets) and Keagan Johnson is averaging fewer than six yards per reception.
There's very little to get excited about in the passing game.
The Lobos have yet to play an offense above FBS average, and this week doesn't introduce that to the schedule.
UCLA Bruins Betting Preview: An Underwhelming Start
What happens when you build the whole plane out of Nico Iamaleava? We're finding out in Pasadena this season and so far, it hasn't been good.
He leads the Bruins in rush attempts and yards, and UCLA enters this game 0-2 and coming off a loss to UNLV. If Iamaleava isn't completing a big pass or scrambling for a first down, UCLA has gotten absolutely nothing going.
Both opponents so far, we think, have been quality — Utah appears to be the Big 12 frontrunner and UNLV turned it around after a bad Week 1.
However, UCLA isn't a good football team right now. Week 1's results are skewing the defensive numbers (Utah went 14-for-16 on third down and out-gained UCLA 492-220), but I don't believe this unit is very good.
Late downs have been a particular pain point on both sides of the ball, as UCLA has converted just 20.8% of its third downs this season while allowing opponents to combine for a 73.1% conversion rate.
Penalties didn't help that number last week, as the Bruins committed 14 of them for 129 yards.
Is Week 3 the game to expose this unit? Not likely. But it's an existing problem worth watching.
New Mexico vs UCLA Pick, Betting Analysis
This number has grown in favor of UCLA (up from -13.5) and down from the opening point total (55.5).
If you jumped on either early, you have a good number.
UCLA has a poor ATS record as a home favorite, posting just a 16-30 mark since 2014, and the Bruins haven't broken .500 ATS since at least then.
Over the past three seasons, the Bruins are just 4-10 ATS in those situations (0-1 last year).
Neither of these teams runs a great pace, nor has a great offense.
New Mexico managed 60 plays from scrimmage last week against Idaho State and 76 the week before while being dominated by Michigan. UCLA ran just 51 plays against Utah and 70 plays against UNLV last week.
The Bruins make things worse by being dreadful on third downs; through two games, they're just 5-for-24 on third downs.
There's little by way of a threatening New Mexico pass offense, and UCLA can't convert on third down. This could be a very underwhelming offensive showcase.
New Mexico doesn't have the defense to counter Iamaleava, but putting the entire offense on his shoulders doesn't scream confidence.
I'm also not buying New Mexico to keep pace with this total against a Power Four defense, elite or otherwise.
I'm betting the under with two struggling offenses and at least one really bad all-around team.
Pick: Under 53.5
