Northern Illinois vs Toledo Prediction & Pick: Can Huskies Hang Around?
Photo by Steven Branscombe/Getty Images. Pictured: Rocky Lombardi (Northern Illinois)
Northern Illinois vs Toledo Odds
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13 -115 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
| Navy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13 -105 | 47.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
Week 5 brings us some MACtion in the form of the Northern Illinois Huskies visiting The Glass Bowl in beautiful Toledo, Ohio to face the Rockets of Toledo.
Toledo is currently on a roll, winning three straight following its Week 1 loss at Illinois.
The Huskies have done the opposite, dropping their last three games after winning Week 1 at Boston College.
Let’s take a look into who holds the edge in this conference matchup between Northern Illinois and Toledo.
Read on for our Northern Illinis vs Toledo prediction & pick.
The Huskies are looking for a bounce-back game after dropping their last three, and they should have a decent opportunity against Toledo this week.
Northern Illinois is 6-4 in its last 10 games against Toledo.
Offensively, this Northern Illinois team hasn't had a pretty season.
Most of this is headlined by seventh-year quarterback, Rocky Lombardi. Lombardi has struggled to protect the ball since returning from injury last season. He has one passing touchdown to four interceptions on the year, which got him benched last week.
That being said, I believe he's the most talented option at quarterback and will need a bounce-back game after struggling to start the season.
The other key to this offense will be finding success on the ground to take some pressure off of Lombardi.
The run game is headlined by Antario Brown. Brown hasn't had a great season either, averaging only 2.9 yards per carry on 64 attempts.
This offense has struggled, so points could be hard to come by, unless the Huskies start putting things together.
Defensively, Northern Illinois has been very successful against the pass, ranking sixth in the country in Defensive Pass Success Rate. This team can shut down the pass, and it has a lot of returning production this season, ranking 19th overall.
The question defensively will be how the Huskies stop the run, as it's been a struggle in that area this season.
Fortunately for this Huskies defense, it has been very explosive in forcing turnovers and making defensive stops when it's required (fifth in the country this year).
If this defense can force some turnovers to help out a subpar offense, the Huskies should be able to hang around.
The Rockets dropped a close one on the road to Illinois prior to rattling off three straight wins.
The unfortunate news for them in their last one was the injury to starting quarterback Dequan Finn.
While the loss of Finn hurts Toledo, it does have another option at quarterback in the Georgia Tech transfer Tucker Gleason. While Gleason has only started three career games, he was a three-star recruit out of high school and still possesses the dual-threat abilities that Finn has.
While Gleason has the skill set to play well in this game, his lack of experience as a starter raises some concerns, especially against an experienced Huskies defense that thrives on making big plays in the passing game.
The Rockets hold the overall edge on the defensive side of the ball, as they're a more sound unit (51st overall in Defensive Success Rate).
While this is definitely better than the Huskies' defense, the Rockets still have vulnerabilities that can be exploited, particularly in the run game.
The Rockets were gauged on the ground last week against a good Western Michigan rushing attack. They showed some weaknesses that the Huskies could use to find some success on the ground in Week 5.
The other concern is the average starting field position for this defense, as it ranks 73rd in the country. That means the Rockets' defense will have to bail the team out from time to time on some short fields.
This could be especially chaotic for this team if Gleason has a rough outing in his fourth career start.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Northern Illinois and Toledo match up statistically:
Northern Illinois Offense vs. Toledo Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 118 | 93 | |
| Line Yards | 99 | 90 | |
| Pass Success | 122 | 18 | |
| Havoc | 102 | 56 | |
| Finishing Drives | 132 | 44 | |
| Quality Drives | 119 | 36 |
Toledo Offense vs. Northern Illinois Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 30 | 120 | |
| Line Yards | 27 | 131 | |
| Pass Success | 32 | 12 | |
| Havoc | 38 | 121 | |
| Finishing Drives | 1 | 80 | |
| Quality Drives | 51 | 52 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 43 | 55 |
| PFF Coverage | 38 | 14 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 125 | 97 |
| Middle 8 | 75 | 21 |
| Seconds per Play | 27.9 (83) | 24.9 (34) |
| Rush Rate | 52.4% (66) | 58.7% (19) |
Northern Illinois vs Toledo
Betting Pick & Prediction
While I think it's obvious that the Rockets are the better team here, Northern Illinois is catching them in a good spot with a newer quarterback starting under center.
The Huskies also have a favorable matchup history with Toledo.
Toledo should be able to win this one outright and continue its path back to a MAC Championship.
That being said, I think Toledo, with new starting quarterback Gleason, will have some costly turnovers giving Lombardi and the Huskies' offense some short fields that they can exploit to hang around in this game.
I would take Northern Illinois +13.5, and I would play it to +13.
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