Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Betting Odds & Pick: Will Sooners Rebound to Spite Brocktober in Ames? (Saturday, Oct. 3)
Brett Deering/Getty Images. Pictured: Spencer Rattler.
- After blowing a three-touchdown lead last week, Oklahoma will try to get back on track in the Big 12 against Iowa State.
- Stuckey breaks down the game and shares why there might be value on the Cyclones on Saturday night.
Iowa State vs. Oklahoma Odds
|Iowa State Odds||+7.5 [BET NOW]|
|Oklahoma Odds||-7.5 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||+225/-286 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||63 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
Oklahoma will look to rebound on Saturday night in Ames, Iowa, after getting upset by Kansas State at home as four-touchdown favorites. Iowa State, meanwhile, seeks a 2-0 start in the Big 12 after its win last week against TCU. Let’s dig into this primetime conference showdown that will go a long way in deciding who gets to play in the Big 12 championship.
Iowa State Cyclones
One of the biggest trends I’ve noticed this season is the significant improvement from many teams between their first and second games. Gaining game experience and subsequently making adjustments ahead of Game 2 can make a world of difference, since most teams missed spring practices and had truncated summer preparation.
We saw that firsthand with Iowa State in their second game after a season-opening loss to Louisiana-Lafayette. Yes, Iowa State got some key players back on offense for the TCU game, including one of the best tight ends in the country in Charlie Kolar. But head coach Matt Campbell’s squad generally looked much sharper.
The Cyclones defense remains one of the best units in the Big 12, and the offense still features star quarterback Brock Purdy, the aforementioned Kolar and a dynamic running back in Breece Hall, who ran for 155 yards and three touchdowns in the win over TCU. I don’t think Iowa State will have any issues putting up points against an Oklahoma defense that allowed Kansas State’s Skylar Thompson to throw for more than 300 yards with countless explosive plays.
Oklahoma’s loss to Kansas State was nightmarish, leading 28-7 in the third quarter before wholly squandering that three-touchdown lead in just over 20 minutes of game time. Maybe the Wildcats made huge strides after a season-opening loss to an Arkansas State team that was missing nine staters, but I still have real concerns about Oklahoma right now.
It’s true that Oklahoma moved the ball with ease through the air against Kansas State and lost the turnover battle 4-0, which certainly won’t happen every game. However, what really stood out was that the offensive line didn’t look as dominant as we are used to seeing at Oklahoma. That unit has always beenone of the most unheralded pieces of these seemingly unstoppable offenses that the Sooners have featured under head coach Lincoln Riley.
OU also didn’t look great in the running game, averaging only 3.7 yards per rush last week. Part of that blame can go on the offensive line, but the Sooners’ backfield attrition also deserves a reexamination. Rhamondre Stevenson is serving a four-game suspension to start the season, Trey Sermon chose to transfer to Ohio State, and Kennedy Brooks — who was coming off back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons — decided to opt out.
In addition to Stevenson, Sooners wide receiver Trejan Bridges and defensive end Ronnie Perkins will also miss the first four games due to suspension. The Perkins loss in particular really hurts an Oklahoma defense that relied heavily on his ability to generate pressure on the opposing quarterback and get tackles for loss.
I’m also worried about Sooners quarterback Spencer Rattler early in the season. There’s no doubt that quarterback whisperer Lincoln Riley is an offensive genius who should work wonders with the talented Rattler. However, all three of his quarterbacks in his three years in Norman had previous game experience at Power Five schools:
- Jalen Hurts (Alabama)
- Kyler Murray (Texas A&M)
- Baker Mayfield (Texas Tech)
Rattler is the first to have familiarity with Riley’s system, but starting experience still matters. That was evident last week when Rattler missed some reads against Kansas State that led to three interceptions. Now, he must contend against a much stingier Iowa State defense.
Check out our new CFB PRO Report, where we highlight factors that provide betting edges — like large wagers, historically profitable betting systems, model projections and expert picks — that when combined with sharp money can powerfully detail the smartest bets on a given slate.
Bet to Watch
Maybe I’m being too harsh on the Sooners after last week’s loss in a game when Lady Luck clearly wasn’t on their side. But, I still downgraded the Sooners by a healthy amount — enough to show value in Iowa State as a home dog catching seven or more.
Plus, it’s officially Brocktober! For whatever reason, Iowa State has always started slowly under Campbell until the calendar flips to October, especially since Purdy took over under center.
Campbell boasts a 20-8 (71.4%) record against the spread in October, covering by just under a touchdown per game on average. Over the past three seasons, Iowa State is 11-0 straight-up in October and 9-1-1 against the spread. And it’s not like the Cyclones have been big favorites in all of those games. In fact, they were underdogs in six of those 11 wins, including an outright road win as 31-point underdogs against Oklahoma in 2017.
There’s some randomness and noise in those splits, but I think some of that success speaks to the strength of this coaching staff. I’m a huge fan of Campbell, who has also been a cash cow as an underdog at 28-13 against the spread. Campbell is also 4-0 against the spread against Oklahoma in his four years with Iowa State, covering by an obscene average margin of 17.63 points per game.
Oklahoma should move the ball well through the air, but Rattler may also make a few costly mistakes. Plus, the Sooners’ offensive line and rushing attack just aren’t at the same elite level as we’ve seen in recent years. Meanwhile, Purdy shouldn’t have any issues keeping up with the Oklahoma offensive output. I’ll take the more experienced quarterback and superior defense here as a home dog of a touchdown or more.