The Ole Miss Rebels take on the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman, Oklahoma, on Saturday, Oct. 25. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Oklahoma is favored by 5.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. Ole Miss, meanwhile, enters as a +5.5 underdog and is +180 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 points.
Here’s my Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 25.
Ole Miss Rebels vs Oklahoma Sooners Prediction, Picks
- Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma Pick: Under 54.5
My Oklahoma vs. Ole Miss best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ole Miss vs Oklahoma Odds, Line, Spread
| Ole Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -105 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -115 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -200 |
- Ole Miss vs Oklahoma Spread: Oklahoma -4.5, Ole Miss +4.5
- Ole Miss vs Oklahoma Over/Under: 52.5
- Ole Miss vs Oklahoma Moneyline: Ole Miss ML +165, Oklahoma ML -200
Ole Miss vs Oklahoma NCAAF Week 9 Preview
Ole Miss Rebels Betting Preview
Now in his sixth season in Oxford (and possibly last?), Lane Kiffin has turned Ole Miss into a perennial contender. The Rebels haven't quite broken through, but they're always in the mix and once again sit in the thick of the SEC title race at 6-1.
Ole Miss is coming off a tough road loss at Georgia, where it played the Dawgs close before a late score allowed them to pull away.
An early-season injury led to a quarterback change and the emergence of Ferris State transfer Trinidad Chambliss.
The dual-threat weapon has taken over the Rebels offense with eight passing touchdowns to just one interception, with 323 yards and five scores on the ground as well. Chambliss leads the SEC with an average of 9.3 yards per attempt.
Ole Miss has the nation’s 16th-best scoring offense thanks to a deep wide receiver room with five different players averaging at least 40 receiving yards per game.
Transfers Harrison Wallace III (Penn State), Deuce Alexander (Wake Forest) and De’Zhaun Stribling (Oklahoma State) are the primary targets on the outside, and Dae’Quan Wright is a weapon at tight end for the Rebels.
Kiffin’s high-flying passing attack always seems to get all the attention, but his teams have always been dominant in the run game.
Kewan Lacy is one of the country’s best backs, racking up 618 yards and 10 touchdowns through seven games. He's tied for the third-most rushing scores in the country and ranks second in the SEC with 49 missed tackles forced.
Offensively, the Rebels continue to be what we expect and are one of the best units in the country.
On defense, however, Ole Miss has taken a step back from last year’s unit. It lost a ton of talent to the NFL, and only two starters returned, linebackers Suntarine Perkins and TJ Dottery.
The good news: The pass defense has been tremendous. Ole Miss has a ton of depth in the secondary, and two star edge rushers in Kam Franklin and Princewill Umanmielen get after the quarterback.
The bad news: The run defense has been shredded. The Rebels are allowing 4.7 yards per carry and 166.7 yards per game on the ground this season.
Only Arkansas has been worse in the SEC. They're allowing way too many chunk runs, ranking 112th nationally at preventing rush explosives.
Oklahoma Sooners Betting Preview
In his fourth season in Norman, head coach Brent Venables entered the year firmly on the hot seat, but a 6-1 start has helped to cool his chair off… for now.
The back half of the Sooners' schedule currently features teams ranked No. 8, No. 17, No. 4, No. 15 and No. 20. The thing that will most determine how they finish the season is the health of quarterback John Mateer.
The Washington State transfer was the favorite to win the Heisman Trophy at one point before a thumb injury against Auburn. He missed a week of action and hasn't looked the same throwing the ball since his return.
Mateer was averaging 303 yards per game passing with 8.6 yards per attempt prior to the injury. Those numbers have dropped to 176 yards per game and 5.5 yards per attempt since.
Even his running game has been severely held in check since the injury, and teams have had more time to get tape on Mateer and this Ben Arbuckle offense.
The team has struggled to run the ball with its backs all season, although freshman Tory Blaylock had his best game of the season last week, going for 101 yards and a touchdown against South Carolina. If he can continue to build on that performance, he'll take some of the pressure off Mateer.
Mateer should get closer to 100% health-wise with every week that passes, but the good news is that the offense typically doesn’t need much to have a chance to win.
Oklahoma has the best defense in the country and has been flat-out dominant this season. The Sooners have allowed just 213.0 yards per game and 3.7 yards per play this year, both the fewest in the nation.
They rank first in Success Rate allowed and are elite at stopping the run and the pass. Only one team — Texas — managed to put up even 300 total yards on this defense, and it was 302.
The tone is set up front for Oklahoma with its defensive line. R Mason Thomas and Taylor Wein on the outside with David Stone and Gracen Halton on the inside form one of the best defensive fronts in the country. The Sooners lead the country in sacks and tackles for loss, and Wein has the most tackles for loss in the SEC.
Linebackers Kip Lewis and Kendal Daniels lead the way in the middle of the field, and the secondary is elite thanks to top coverage cornerback Courtland Guillory and an elite safety in Peyton Bowen.
This secondary has allowed over 200 passing yards in just one game all year.
Ole Miss vs Oklahoma NCAAF Week 9 Pick
People aren't making a big enough deal about how good this Oklahoma defense has been this season. The Sooners have allowed over 300 total yards just once all season (302). They've allowed more than one offensive touchdown in a game just twice.
Texas is the only team to score more than 17 points, and it took a punt return and three field goals. The Oklahoma defense has allowed the fewest yards, ranks first in Success Rate allowed and leads the country in sacks and tackles for loss.
Ole Miss has a great offense, and Chambliss has been electric since taking over. But he will be the fifth dual-threat quarterback Oklahoma has faced this season. This is how the Sooners defense has fared against the previous mobile quarterbacks:
- Michigan QB Bryce Underwood: -1 yard rushing
- Auburn QB Jackson Arnold: -11 yards rushing
- Texas QB Arch Manning: 34 yards rushing
- South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers: -9 yards rushing
Chambliss has been great as a passer, but he has also been kept clean on 80% of dropbacks. The Ole Miss line is very good, but that won't be the case on Saturday. How will he do when he's under more pressure and his legs are taken away?
Last week was the first road game for Chambliss, and it also marked his worst performance of the season.
He completed just 52.8% of his passes for 263 yards and one touchdown. He ran for two scores to keep the Rebels in the game, but I don’t expect him to be able to do that against Oklahoma here.
Ole Miss has some questions on defense, but this Oklahoma offense hasn't been the same since Mateer’s thumb injury. His yards per attempt have dropped more than three yards since his injury, and his throws don't have the same zip on them.
In the first four games of the season, Mateer had seven big-time throws with just four turnover-worthy plays. In the two games since his injury, he hasn't had a single big-time throw and has six turnover-worthy plays.
Mateer has also seemed more hesitant to run the ball and put his body in harm's way, limiting OU's third-down success. The last two games have been the Sooners' two lowest yards-per-play outputs of the season.
Oklahoma seemed to find something last week with Blaylock on the ground, as he set a career high with 19 carries and over 100 yards. The Rebels run defense is their weakness, so the Sooners should continue to rely on Blaylock and lean on the run more here.
The sportsbooks continue to set these totals too high for Oklahoma games; the under is 7-0 in OU games this season. Continue to back this Sooners defense, especially with a limited Mateer.
Pick: Under 54.5
Ole Miss vs Oklahoma Betting Trends to Know
