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Overrated, Underrated College Football Teams Based on Our Week 3 Power Ratings

Sep 11, 2018 12:42 PM EDT
  • Here are the biggest discrepancies between how AP voters, oddsmakers and The Action Network have ranked college football teams after Week 2.
  • There are plenty of overrated and underrated teams based on our proprietary power ratings.
  • For example: Clemson slipped in our power ratings after a narrow victory over Texas A&M, but held at No. 2 in the AP Poll.

With no marquee top-10 game and a plethora of FCS vs. FBS matchups, Week 2 did not produce much of a shakeup in the AP Top 25.

South Carolina and Florida were bounced from Week 3’s rankings, while Arizona State and Oklahoma State made their first appearances.

Boise State and Oregon each moved up three spots in the poll, to Nos. 17 and 20, respectively.

The Broncos manhandled UConn to set up their showdown in Stillwater on Saturday. The Ducks should remain in the top 25 next week — they are 41-point favorites at home against San Jose State on Saturday.

USC (five spots to 22) and Michigan State (10 places to 25) fell in the poll after suffering losses to Stanford and Arizona State, respectively.

With The Action Network’s Week 3 projections and power ratings in mind, let’s take a look at the most overrated and underrated teams in the AP Top 25.


Overrated College Football Teams

Clemson Tigers

Blasphemy! This is the team I placed plenty of money for the national title and to make the playoff, but a 2-point victory in College Station left plenty to be desired.

Most of the concerns around Clemson in the preseason focused on the Tigers’ weaknesses in the secondary, and Texas A&M QB Kellen Mond was happy to lay a blueprint for future opponents.

The overrated portion comes from the No. 2 AP ranking. Clemson dipped slightly in The Action Network’s power ratings, allowing Ohio State to slip into the second spot.

In contrast, Georgia went on the road and looked impressive in a hostile environment at South Carolina. It remains to be seen if Clemson will sleepwalk until its first loss or dial up the talent only when needed.

Central Florida Knights

Two blowouts against UConn and South Carolina State have UCF at 18th in the AP Poll, one behind Boise State for the lead among Group of 5 teams.

Central Florida is overrated because the teams ranked around it in the poll are much better.

No. 19 Michigan would be favored by 10.5 on a neutral field, while No. 16 Mississippi State would fetch a spread of -7.5.

There is work to do for Josh Heupel’s version of UCF to convince oddsmakers.

Florida State Seminoles

FSU received one vote in the AP poll.  The Seminoles have fallen in the power ratings, and we might not have seen the floor for Willie Taggart’s squad.

A fourth-quarter comeback against Samford masked a box score that shows the Bulldogs amassing 525 total yards against the Seminoles.

Samford is ranked ninth in the latest FCS poll, but even that one vote in the AP Poll makes FSU overrated.

Underrated College Football Teams

Auburn Tigers

Auburn is now tied for fourth in the power ratings, dead even with Oklahoma. Only Alabama, Ohio State and Clemson would be favored over the Tigers on a neutral field.

This week’s test against LSU is the second of multiple Top 25 opponents on Auburn’s schedule.

We wrote about LSU being overrated in last week’s column, and I expect Auburn to cover this weekend. The AP Poll will have a tough decision about which team Auburn will hop over — Wisconsin, Oklahoma or Ohio State — on Sunday.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

How many SEC teams can we list in the underrated section of the column? Cowbell proved the power ratings correct with a 31-10 victory over Kansas State.

After some money piled on Kansas State at +9, Mississippi State was able to easily cover thanks to 538 total yards.

Mississippi State is now averaging 8.44 yards per play, good enough for fifth in the country. Nick Fitzgerald’s accuracy still needs work after an 11-for-27 outing with two touchdowns and an interception, but that also leaves room for this Bulldogs team to grow even more.

Utah Utes

In a sleepy road spot with the Washington game on deck, Utah went into the locker room at halftime down 3-0 to Northern Illinois on Saturday.

The Utes scored 17 in the second half to cover the spread, but the box score shows just how dominant Utah has been.

Northern Illinois finished with 228 yards, converting only 15 first downs. This weekend Utah is +6 at home looking to upset top-10 team.

The Utes will be off the underrated radar for good with a win over the 10th-ranked Huskies on Saturday night.

Credit:

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jarrett Stidham

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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44
-2.5
43
55
-4.5
54
-2.5
-3
54.5
-2.5
55
-6
66.5
-6
68.5
48
-11
49.5
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73
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75
67.5
-5
59.5
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-3
53.5
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51.5
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57.5
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60
55
-3.5
56
-2.5
61
-3.5
60
-6
41
-2
39.5
PK
56.5
-3
55
-4.5
-3
47
-3.5
48
-6.5
55
-4.5
55.5
54.5
-5
54.5
-3.5
-7
74
-1.5
67
54.5
-6.5
55
-3.5
50.5
-6
50.5
-7.5
-6.5
55
-5.5
54.5
-2
58.5
-1.5
60
56
-11
55
-13.5
79
-13.5
80.5
-14
-6.5
53.5
-6
53.5
-6.5
52
-6.5
52
48
-1.5
48
-3
-10
71
-8
74.5
45
-6.5
46
-7
58.5
-4.5
59
-6.5
-5
44.5
-7
44
-8
54.5
-7.5
55.5
48
-4
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58.5
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58
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