The North Dakota State Bison take on the Sacramento State Hornets in Sacramento, CA. Kickoff is set for 10:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
North Dakota State is favored by -27.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my North Dakota State vs Sacramento State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19, 2026.
North Dakota State vs Sacramento State Prediction
- North Dakota State vs Sacramento State Pick: North Dakota State -27.5
My Sacramento State vs. North Dakota State best bet is on the Bison to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
North Dakota State vs Sacramento State Odds
| North Dakota State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-27.5 -110 | 51.5 -118o / -105u | -10000 |
| Sacramento State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+27.5 -108 | 51.5 -118o / -105u | +2500 |
- North Dakota State vs Sacramento State point spread: North Dakota State -27.5 (-110), Sacramento State +27.5 (-108)
- North Dakota State vs Sacramento State over/under: 51.5 (-118o / -105u)
- North Dakota State vs Sac State moneyline: North Dakota State -10000, Sacramento State +2500
North Dakota State vs Sacramento State College Football Preview
North Dakota State Bison Betting Preview: Acclimating Nicely
North Dakota State hasn't missed a beat since moving up from the FCS level to FBS football this offseason. The Bison are 3-0 with dominant wins over Jacksonville State and Fordham while completely controlling a good majority of their contest last week on the road against Air Force.
The Bison led the Flyboys 35-13 into the fourth quarter and head coach Tim Polasek made mention of his poor decision-making leading to offensive stall-outs while Air Force made a late-game push to get back into the game.
The offense has been rush-heavy, as is so often the case with North Dakota State and the ground game was challenged this week after Polasek put the film on with his guys.
There was a significant emphasis on the attitude of the offensive line, downfield blocking and physical domination on the offensive end.
I don't think this staff has been happy with the lack of production on the ground, and despite the 3-0 start, North Dakota State isn't satisfied with how the offense has looked.
The defense has been excellent all season, but the front played very disciplined, assignment-level football against Air Force. The longest rushing play surrendered was just 12 yards and a good majority of the damage was done in the fourth quarter.
The Bison have been great at getting pressure on opposing quarterbacks this season with seven sacks and five interceptions already.
Sacramento State's offense is going to really have to work in order to move the football in this game.
Sacramento State Hornets Betting Preview: Totally Overwhelmed
Sacramento State has struggled in games against FBS-level competition and is once again reliant on backup quarterback Jackson Sharman to lead the offense.
Sharman was never more than the third-string option at Idaho State but has been thrown into action due to an injury Carson Conklin suffered in the opener.
The pass game was neutralized by Fresno State last week and the Hornets had just one drive advance into the red zone against the Bulldogs.
The performance we saw from the Hornets in their home opener against Mississippi Valley State doesn't move the needle for me at all; this offense is still putrid and will struggle to move the ball in this game.
The defense was overwhelmed by the physicality of Fresno State last week, as the Bulldogs ran for 5.8 yards per carry on the ground with four rushing scores.
Fresno State continued to roll out play-action passing off the run action, creating major problems for the Hornets' defense all night, and Jayden Mandel completed 23-of-26 passes for 316 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
The majority of the Hornet havoc produced came against Mississippi Valley State, and I just don't foresee this group registering the negative plays to get the Bison off-schedule when they have the ball.
This defense faced a tall order last week and will be up against it in this one despite being at home.
North Dakota State vs Sacramento State Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with North Dakota State listed as 23.5-point favorites, and we bet the Bison on the opener Sunday afternoon. The line is all the way out to -27.5 and we still recommend betting North Dakota State laying under four touchdowns. The total is set at 50.5.
Polasek made mention this week in his press conference of being on the offensive attack.
He took it upon himself to second-guess how the fourth quarter of the Air Force game was handled and talked about adopting more urgency even with a lead.
He talked about calling different plays to continue pursuing scoring opportunities while praising quarterback Nathan Hayes for his astute decision-making.
The Bison aren't going to sit on a lead in this game based on those comments. I expect there to be a big lead as North Dakota State is going to run the ball successfully in this game.
The way the offensive line was challenged will result in urgency, physicality and running lanes being opened up for Myles Mitchell and DJ Scott. I wouldn't be stunned to see the Bison with 250 rushing yards or more in this game.
Hayes has been great with the football while throwing six touchdown passes this season, and he's completing 71% of his passes. Jackson Williams and Mekhi Collins have been reliable receiving options, and I would expect some more involvement out of the tight ends in pass receiving here as well.
We saw Sacramento State struggle badly against a team that profiles similarly last week, and I think the problems continue against the Bison.
Pick: North Dakota State -27.5
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