The Purdue Boilermakers take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend, Indiana, on Saturday, Sept. 20. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Notre Dame is favored by 25.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2500. Purdue, meanwhile, comes in as a +25.5 underdog and is +1250 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 points.
Here’s my Purdue vs. Notre Dame prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20.
Purdue vs Notre Dame Prediction
- Purdue vs. Notre Dame Pick: Purdue Team Total Under 13.5
My Notre Dame vs. Purdue best bet is on the Boilermakers to go under their team total. Find the best lines available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Purdue vs Notre Dame Odds
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+25.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +1250 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-25.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -2500 |
- Purdue vs Notre Dame Spread: Notre Dame -25.5, Purdue +25.5
- Purdue vs Notre Dame Over/Under: 52.5
- Purdue vs Notre Dame Moneyline: Purdue +1250, Notre Dame -2500
Purdue vs Notre Dame College Football Betting Preview
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview: A Step Up in Class
The Boilermakers may have lost to USC last week, but they outgained the Trojans in total yards on offense. Both teams ran 66 plays from scrimmage, but the Trojans won by 16.
It was a misleading box score, but they killed themselves with several key turnovers. Quarterback Ryan Browne looked decent at times, but he threw three interceptions and was sacked five times throughout the contest.
Last week was their first test, and despite the turnovers, their offense passed. They appear to have taken steps from last season, but now they find themselves in a tough spot against Notre Dame on the road.
Last season, Notre Dame defeated Purdue, 66-7, in West Lafayette. Purdue has improved from a year ago, but it will be a daunting test against a desperate Irish team.
The Boilermakers been above average offensively in generating explosive plays, but their competition hasn't been the best. And let's face it — Notre Dame's defense is far more talented than the Trojans'.
Defensively, Purdue's key will be to contain the Irish passing attack. Its run defense hasn't been the best, but its secondary has been shredded to pieces thus far.
I don't expect many stops from the Purdue defense, and I question if its offense is up for the challenge against this Irish defense.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview: Stats Don't Tell Full Story
Notre Dame's heartbreaking loss to Texas A&M last week has given it a golden opportunity to bounce back and redeem itself. The Fighting Irish need to win out to make the College Football Playoff.
They're 0-2 against two teams that appear to be on a fast track to make the CFP, so these losses may look a lot better by year's end. However, the Irish — especially their defense — need to address many questions.
Entering the season, the defense was supposed to be among the best in the nation despite losing all of the NFL talent from last season. They've been anything but that in their first two games, and their metrics thus far are very ugly.
Here's where the Irish rank defensively in some key stats thus far:
- 131st in EPA/Pass Allowed
- 136th in Available Yards
- 119th in Early Down EPA/Play
- 123rd in Passing Success Rate Allowed
That's horrifying, but I want to make clear that these two matchups are against Miami and Texas A&M. Both of those programs' offenses look excellent in the early going.
Was the defense overrated entering the year? Probably. But that doesn't automatically make it a bad unit. We'll learn a lot about the defense this week, but this is a golden opportunity to buy low.
Despite looking rough through two games, the Irish have held their own defensively against the run. Purdue has relied heavily on explosive plays thus far, but its offensive line has also been abused.
The Irish pass rush has been nonexistent, but they went up against some of the nation's best offensive line units.
Their offense has put up explosive play after explosive play. The Irish rank among the top of the nation in explosive passes and rushes, but they're near dead last in Line Yards and Havoc allowed.
Quarterback CJ Carr has been decent thus far, but they need to feed running back Jeremiyah Love more often. It's odd how offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has limited his carries in the early going because he's been electric whenever he touches the ball.
I would expect a heavy dose of Love this week, and I think the Irish will be happy to kill some time with extended drives.
Purdue vs Notre Dame Pick, Betting Analysis
It's scary, but I'll fade the Purdue offense here and take its team total under. I'm selling the Boilermakers high and buying low on the Notre Dame defense because it's far better than the metrics suggest.
The Boilermakers have issues on the offensive line, and I think the Irish will be happy to rely on their ground game to kill some clock and help out their defense.
I know head coach Marcus Freeman is tired of hearing about the defense, so they'll come out with an excellent game plan to shut down the Boilermaker offense.
Hold your nose, folks, but the Fighting Irish defense is undervalued right now.
Pick: Purdue Team Total Under 13.5
