NCAAF Odds & Pick for San Diego State vs Colorado State
Tom Hauck/Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego State’s Jalen Mayden.
San Diego State vs Colorado State Odds
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Colorado State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -185 |
The season is beginning to dwindle, and that means time is running out for these two teams to gain bowl eligibility. The San Diego State Aztecs and Colorado State Rams both enter this matchup 3-6 on the season.
Neither team can afford to lose this matchup, each needing a win if they want their season to continue past November. It doesn't help that neither the Aztecs nor the Rams come in playing their best ball, as SDSU has dropped its last two and Colorado State its last three.
Which team will step up and keep their season alive? Let's dive into the San Diego State vs. Colorado State odds and make a prediction.
The Aztecs offense bounced back last week after they were shut out by Nevada two weeks ago, but ultimately, it still wasn't enough to get in the win column.
However, could this matchup provide a true bounce-back performance?
San Diego State is a team that typically opts to keep the ball on the ground. While it will have an avenue for success on the ground in this matchup, it will be interesting to see if the coaching staff trusts Jalen Mayden's arm a bit more here.
He'll have the opportunity to produce through the air, as the Rams' secondary has been torched this season. Colorado State comes into this matchup ranking 132nd in opponent completion percentage and 119th in yards per pass allowed.
On top of that, Mayden has proven he can get it done from the pocket, completing nearly 62% of his passes this season. With the signal-caller rolling from a great performance last week, it wouldn't surprise me if this is his best game of the season.
When it comes to the Colorado State offense, we and the San Diego State Aztecs know what to expect. The ball will be in the hands of quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi, as the Rams throw the ball at the second-highest rate in the country.
The freshman quarterback may have solid numbers, but they're inflated due to the high volume of passes. He's also not without his faults, as he's thrown an interception in all but two starts this season.
In addition, this San Diego State secondary will be a sneaky test for him, as it ranks 19th in opponent completion percentage. The Aztecs will be prepared for this pass-heavy scheme, so that may play into the strength of the defense.
On defense, the Rams are nothing special. They rank 63rd in Rushing Success Rate and 108th in Passing Success Rate, which could potentially help Mayden have some success for SDSU.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and Colorado State match up statistically:
San Diego State Offense vs. Colorado State Defense
 | Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 44 | 63 | |
| Line Yards | 63 | 64 | |
| Pass Success | 70 | 108 | |
| Havoc | 92 | 59 | |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 44 | |
| Quality Drives | 85 | 124 |
Colorado State Offense vs. San Diego State Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 128 | 132 | |
| Line Yards | 130 | 131 | |
| Pass Success | 39 | 72 | |
| Havoc | 78 | 90 | |
| Finishing Drives | 72 | 47 | |
| Quality Drives | 115 | 96 |
Pace of Play / Other
| ||
| PFF Tackling | 115 | 42 |
| PFF Coverage | 108 | 65 |
| Special Teams SP+ | 90 | 43 |
| Middle 8 | 107 | 130 |
| Seconds per Play | 30.1 (119) | 22.5 (6) |
| Rush Rate | 57.3% (36) | 35.9% (131) |
San Diego State vs Colorado State
Betting Pick & Prediction
These two teams have not given us much to write home about, but that doesn't mean there isn't value in this matchup.
The San Diego State offense came to life last week but came up short. This week, it has an even better opportunity on the offensive side of the ball, and Mayden will carry over some momentum from his latest outing.
On the other side of the ball, the Rams' scheme plays into the strength of the Aztecs defense, and they could earn their offense some extra possessions given what we've seen from Fowler-Nicolosi from a turnover perspective.
The Aztecs are live dogs here and hold great value at the market's number.
Pick: San Diego State +3.5 (Play to +3)
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