College Football Picks for Week 11: Bet Air Force, Arizona as Favorites

The college football season rolls on to Week 11 as we approach the home stretch.

You might be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article.

Well, we decided last year we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites, which we talk about weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.

We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers.

After a hot start, it seems we just can't get on the same page on the same Saturday. Last week, Collin had a cruiser with West Virginia, but South Carolina couldn't get a front-door cover for me in a game it did not deserve to cover in any world, to be fair.

After six straight splits, our record is 12-8 (60.0%) on the season. Hopefully, we can relocate those hidden brooms this week.

For Week 11, we are both rolling with double-digit road chalk. I get things started Saturday afternoon, while Collin takes us home late into the night.

Stuckey: Arizona -10

I'm once again rolling with the ATM-machine Wildcats, who have gone an absurd FBS-best 8-1 against the spread on the season.

Freshman quarterback Noah Fifita has continued his pristine play since taking over for Jayden de Laura.

Fifita has similar arm talent to his predecessor but just makes sounder decisions, as de Laura would put the ball in harm's way too often. Look no further than the game in Starkville that Arizona lost in overtime after turning the ball over five times — four of which came via interception.

Fifita, who has made five starts, has thrown for more than 1,500 yards with 14 touchdowns to just four interceptions. As a result, he now ranks 11th nationally in total QBR.

This extremely well-schemed offense simply needs a sound decision-maker who can make all of the throws considering the abundance of skill-position talent and an offensive line that excels in pass protection.

Fifita, who has won the Pac-12 Freshman of the Week Award four times in his five starts (all against top-20 teams), fits the bill perfectly.

There's just no reason why this rolling Arizona offense that I have now ranked as a top-10 unit shouldn't shred this horrendous Colorado defense that ranks outside the top 110 nationally in both Rush and Pass Success Rate.

Sign up using our Caesars Sportsbook promo code to make an Arizona vs. Colorado wager.

For what it's worth, Arizona's offense ranks in the top 10 in both categories. It's a massive mismatch.

While many have started to take notice of what coach Jedd Fisch has done with the offense, not enough have realized how much this defense has improved year over year. That and limiting turnovers have been the biggest difference for a Wildcats squad that also featured an excellent offense last season.

They just simply couldn't get any stops.

Well, that's changed with a group that's flying around with an abundance of confidence behind a defensive line that now has bulk up front.

One might say I'm buying Arizona at a high point after three straight wins over ranked opponents. That's a fair point regarding an Arizona team that has certainly benefited from positive red-zone variance on the defensive side, but that could continue this week against a Colorado offense that can't run the ball.

Plus, each season the market seemingly can't catch up on a couple of teams at both the top and bottom market. Kent State (1-9 ATS) might be that team in the basement, while I believe Arizona is the one toward the top.

The Wildcats have lost two games in overtime on the road to Power 5 opponents they should've beaten with a third one-possession defeat coming against a healthy Washington squad that remains undefeated.

Plus, this is also a fade of Colorado.

Not only do the Buffaloes have one of the worst Power 5 defenses, but Deion Sanders inexplicably took play-calling duties from offensive coordinator Sean Lewis and handed the keys to Pat Shurmur. I have no idea why Sanders would make such a decision outside of potential panic and/or wanting to protect quarterback Shadeur Sanders more in front of an abysmal offensive line.

The uptempo passing offense was the only bright spot on the entire team. Now with Shurmur, you're going to get a more conservative approach with more wide receiver screens and a higher frequency of runs, which will likely prove disastrous for one of the nation's worst rushing offenses.

In Shurmur's first game calling plays last week against Oregon State, Colorado amassed 83 total yards at an average clip of under two yards per play. The Buffaloes did sneak in the back door for a second straight week, but it was an ugly effort all around.

As long as Arizona shows up — and I'm assuming it will against a team everybody wants a piece of — it should march up and down the field with ease while getting plenty of stops against this new inefficient Colorado offense.

Plus, the Wildcats will enjoy a significant coaching and special teams edge.

Pick: Arizona -10

Use the Action Network’s DraftKings promo code to get a signup bonus when betting the Arizona spread.

ESPN is launching a new sportsbook Nov. 14. Register with Action’s ESPN BET promo code for a welcome offer today!

Wilson: Air Force -18.5

Air Force will head to the big island with a sour taste in its mouth after a stunning Week 10 loss to Army, which significantly diminished its chances of taking the Commander-In-Chief's Trophy.

The Falcons still sit atop the Mountain West standings with an undefeated league record, leading both Fresno State and UNLV by a game apiece.

The loss to Army was an uncharacteristic event for head coach Troy Calhoun, who watched his team turn the ball over six times.

Air Force still ranks top 10 in Havoc Allowed, a collective statistic measuring tackles for loss, interceptions and fumbles. Calhoun was adamant in his news conference this week that Air Force will play a cleaner brand of football on the Island.

The bigger question is if Air Force can run the ball on the Hawaii defense. Statistically, the Warriors have been stout against the run, ranking 30th in Defensive Stuff Rate.

However, a closer look at the run concepts they've faced dictates the game will play out differently.

Want extra upside for your Air Force vs. Hawaii action? Use Action’s FanDuel Promo Code for bonus bets.

Hawaii has n'tot faced the triple option in the two years of head coach Timmy Chang’s tenure. Not only have the Warriors not seen a triple-option attack, but no team they've played has handed off to a fullback in the past two years.

Air Force does have other run concepts outside of the triple, from power to pulling offensive linemen with lead blocks. Hawaii grades out well below the national average in defending almost all of Air Force's run concepts.

The Warriors have a below-average 42% Success Rate versus power run concepts and a bottom-of-the-barrel 25% Success Rate against rushing attempts with pulling linemen.

Plus, the Falcons have shredded every non-service academy on their schedule.

Air Force should come out fully focused after last week's embarrassing loss and will be proud to be playing near the site of the Pearl Harbor attacks on Veteran's Day. Calhoun mentioned how warm the welcome has been from the multiple military bases that encompass the state of Hawaii.

Those thoughts have translated to past success with travel to the Island, where Calhoun led Air Force to victory in 2015 and 2019 by a combined score of 114-33.

I expect Air Force to bounce back in full force against an under-prepared Hawaii rush defense.

Pick: Air Force -18

Get your choice of a safety net bet up to $1,000 or $150 in bonus bets when you sign up with the bet365 bonus code to bet the Air Force spread!

More From the "Big Bets on Campus" Podcast"