The Tennessee Volunteers take on the Florida Gators in Gainesville on Saturday, Nov. 22. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Tennessee is favored by 4 points on the spread with a moneyline of -198. Florida, meanwhile, enters as a +4 underdog and is +170 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 57.5 total points.
Here’s my Tennessee vs. Florida prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
Tennessee vs Florida Prediction
- Tennessee vs. Florida Pick: Florida +4
My Florida vs. Tennessee best bet is on the Gators to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Tennessee vs Florida Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -112 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -198 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -108 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
- Tennessee vs Florida Spread: Tennessee -4, Florida +4
- Tennessee vs Florida Over/Under: 57.5 Points
- Tennessee vs Florida Moneyline: Tennessee -198, Florida +170
Tennessee vs Florida College Football Betting Preview
When Tennessee Has the Ball
If you’re looking for a live home 'dog in a rivalry spot, Florida is a prime candidate.
The Gators have had a disappointing season and have moved on from head coach Billy Napier, but this game functions as their Super Bowl.
They get Tennessee at home, under the lights, with a crowd that’s going to treat this like a season-defining moment. On top of that, the numbers actually support the Gators hanging inside this spread far more than the market seems to think.
Tennessee’s offense has been solid on paper, but when digging deeper, its efficiency hasn’t translated the same way against comparable or superior competition
The Vols’ passing attack ranks 27th in EPA/Pass, but Florida’s defense, while inconsistent, hasn’t been incompetent against the pass. More importantly, it thrives in early downs, ranking 42nd nationally in Early Downs EPA allowed.
That matters because Tennessee relies heavily on staying on schedule. When it doesn't, quarterback Joey Aguilar tends to force throws, which turn into massive mistakes.
Florida’s defense, meanwhile, quietly forces opponents into third-and-long situations as well, producing an average opponent third-down distance of 6.77 yards — a top-40 mark that directly correlates nicely with Tennessee’s rhythm-based offense.
When Florida Has the Ball
While Florida’s offensive profile isn’t flashy, it’s more stable than advertised.
Tennessee’s defense ranks 89th in EPA/Pass allowed and 117th in EPA/Rush allowed, meaning the Gators should have multiple pathways to sustained drives rather than needing explosive plays to stay in the game.
Florida also owns a big situational spot in its favor. Tennessee has yet to look impressive against superior competition, repeatedly beating up on weaker teams but showing cracks anytime it faces a defense that can win early downs or force it into methodical drives.
That’s exactly the type of game script Florida drags opponents into. Even the special teams and field position battles lean toward the Gators,
Tennessee ranks just 78th in starting field position offensively. It’s also worth noting that the Vols have some injuries to monitor heading into this game. The lack of depth should give the Gators a lift on the offensive side of the ball.
Tennessee vs Florida Pick, Betting Analysis
The key to the matchup is Florida quarterback DJ Lagway.
If the good Lagway shows up, the Gators are going to win the game outright. If Lagway plays poorly, this could be an ugly game all around.
I still think Florida’s defense will do enough to frustrate Aguilar as it plays inspired ball in this quality spot.
Put it all together — a home crowd, an intense rivalry and Tennessee’s unimpressive showings against legitimate competition — and everything points toward the Gators keeping this close.
I’ll happily take a chance on the good Lagway showing up, and I expect a fiery effort from this squad in what will be its Super Bowl.
Pick: Florida +4
Tennessee vs Florida Betting Trends
