NCAAF Odds, Picks & Predictions for Texas A&M vs Miami
Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tyler Van Dyke (Miami)
Texas A&M vs Miami Odds
A rematch between Texas A&M and Miami is set for Week 2.
The 2022 version saw a grinding slog littered with dysfunctional offense that resulted in a 17-9 victory for the Aggies in College Station.
Miami head coach Mario Cristobal was in the beginning stages of changing the roster, inheriting undersized players in the offensive and defensive trenches that limited Miami to just five wins a season ago. The Hurricanes finished seventh in transfer portal rankings over the past offseason and entered 2023 by lighting up Miami (OH) in the season opener.
Texas A&M was active in the coaching portal, electing to hire former Arkansas coach Bobby Petrino as offensive coordinator. Plenty was made in the offseason about who would call plays for the Aggies, but an outburst of quarterback play and points against New Mexico has the fanbase hopeful for a playoff-contending season.
Steamy Hard Rock Stadium will be the site for the conclusion of the series, as each head coach is desperately in need of a strong nonconference win.
Head coach Jimbo Fisher could not have asked for a better start to the season, especially on the offensive side of the ball.
Quarterback Conner Weigman connected on 18 of his 23 pass attempts for five touchdowns. Two of those passing touchdowns came on dropbacks with pressure, as Weigman didn't record a single turnover-worthy play.
Dating back to last season, the second-year quarterback hasn't thrown an interception in 185 dropbacks.
— Jacob Svetz 👍 (@jasvetz) September 5, 2023
The Aggies were stuffed on just four of their 27 rushing attempts, while they averaged nearly nine yards per play in passing downs. Texas A&M also achieved two or more first downs on nine of its 11 drives — more than double the national average.
Three different players averaged double digits in yards per target, giving the Aggies an upgraded offense in the methodical and explosive drives categories.
The defense continued to be a constant, recording six quarterback hurries and 10 tackles for loss. The 4-2-5 personnel ranks top-five in the early Havoc ratings despite blitzing on just 19% of snaps.
New Mexico struggled in passing downs as well with an average of 2.9 yards per play.
The Aggies were just as extortionate on defense in Week 1 in comparison to the bar set from previous seasons.
The Hurricanes blew out the RedHawks in the battle of Miami in Week 1.
Cristobal and Co. emphasized their happiness with the rushing attack, giving at least eight carries to four different rushers. The Hurricanes ran hot in standard downs, posting a 59% Success Rate while averaging 7.9 yards per play.
Henry Parrish Jr. averaged more than four yards after contact, but the most elusive award goes to Donald Chaney Jr. and his six missed tackles created on eight rushing attempts.
Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke, also known as Tyler Van Dime, experienced a renaissance from the pocket, connecting on 17 of his 22 attempts with three explosive passes.
The Hurricanes now have weapons not only in the backfield but also at the wideout position with Colbie Young.
— CFB Country (@_CFBCountry) September 1, 2023
The defense jumped in on the fun, limiting the RedHawks to just three points on three possessions the Canes' crossed the 40-yard line. Miami stuffed a ridiculous 17 out of 22 rushing attempts, limiting its opponent to just 4.4 yards per play.
The RedHawks left plenty of offense on the sidelines, gaining 15% less than the national average in available yards.
Hurricanes linebacker Francisco Mauigoa packed the stat line with four tackles and two pressures.
Texas A&M vs. Miami
Betting Pick & Prediction
There are bumps and bruises on the Miami side, as Van Dyke started a buzz after being seen with tape on his finger. Cristobal indicated the quarterback has no limitations and that Young is "OK" even after leaving the second quarter against the RedHawks.
The head coach was more concerned with the explosiveness of Texas A&M's offense during his weekly press conference.
The Aggies drilled their layup game against New Mexico and made the tempo worth monitoring. Texas A&M increased its pace by two seconds per play, meaning the number of plays per game is on a sharp increase with Petrino manning the offense.
Weigman attempted six passes over 20 yards in Week 1, a contrast from throwing just 16 in all of 2022. With an average depth of target increase from 9.8 to 14.4 yards, there's no reason to think Texas A&M isn't going to target Miami's back seven, whose PFF coverage grade ranks 82nd.
The Aggies defense did give up an explosive drive — defined as a drive that averages 10-plus yards per play — to New Mexico. The Lobos connected on three passes over 15 yards but struggled to put points up in scoring position.
Texas A&M allowed its Week 1 opponent to exceed the national average in methodical drive rate while posting a better Success Rate in standard downs. The Hurricanes cooked in standard downs on offense, ranking top-25 in early analytics.
Week 1 box scores are always skewed when a Power 5 team routs a Group of Five opponent.
Miami struggled with tackling, coverage and explosives in standard downs against Miami (Ohio), while Texas A&M struggled defensively in Standard Downs Success Rate and allowed a number of explosive passing attempts.
Considering the Aggies want to push the tempo with their new appetite for downfield targets, look for Miami to keep it close by creating explosive plays against the A&M defense.