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The Texas A&M Aggies take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, MO. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ABC.
Missouri is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Texas A&M vs. Missouri prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 10.
Texas A&M vs Missouri Prediction, Picks
- Texas A&M vs. Missouri Pick: Under 48.5
My Missouri vs. Texas A&M best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas A&M vs Missouri Odds, Line, Spread
| Texas A&M Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -175 |
- Texas A&M vs Missouri point spread: Missouri -3.5, Texas A&M +3.5
- Texas A&M vs Missouri over/under: 50.5
- Texas A&M vs Missouri moneyline: Texas A&M ML +145, Missouri ML -175
Texas A&M vs Missouri NCAAF Preview
Texas A&M Aggies Betting Preview
Texas A&M finally got back into the win column with a convincing 34-7 victory over Arkansas, but the much more interesting development is what Mike Elko's defense accomplished.
Arkansas managed only seven points, and now A&M gets a Missouri offense coming off a 45-point performance against Florida that should have the market feeling considerably better about the Tigers than their underlying efficiency suggests.
The Aggies are allowing -0.109 EPA/Play, ranking 30th nationally, while opponents have generated only a 30% third-down conversion rate, the eighth-best mark in the country.
That's an important matchup against a Missouri offense converting just 42.3% of its third downs, particularly when you consider how much the Tigers have relied on explosive passing plays to overcome inconsistent early-down efficiency.
Most importantly, this is a flat spot for the Tigers after their big win against Florida. Going up against an Elko offense on the road after a big win is a recipe for disaster.
Marcel Reed hasn't exactly been lighting up opposing secondaries, either. The Aggies' quarterback is completing just 57% of his passes for 908 yards, six touchdowns, and four interceptions, while averaging only 6.1 YPA.
Those aren't numbers that have me racing to bet an Over against a Missouri defense allowing -0.117 EPA/Play with a 40% Success Rate. The Aggies have also struggled to create explosives, producing them on just 4% of their offensive snaps, which ranks near the bottom of the FBS.
Wideout Mario Craver remains questionable, while Terry Bussey is out for the season, leaving additional uncertainty around an already inconsistent passing attack. Expect this to be an ugly game for the offense, but Elko will have his defense ready to pounce on this Missouri offense.
Missouri Tigers Betting Preview
Missouri is coming off a 45-17 demolition of Florida, and QB Austin Simmons deserves plenty of credit for completing 23-of-30 passes for 340 yards and two touchdowns.
Simmons has been outstanding this season, throwing for 1,270 yards and 13 touchdowns without an interception while averaging 9.3 YPA.
You can't blindly fade that production, but this is a much more difficult matchup than the one Missouri faced last week. The Tigers are generating +0.036 EPA/Play offensively, ranking 55th nationally, with a 41.3% Success Rate that ranks 88th.
Are those the worst numbers? Of course not, but we've seen enough of Austin Simmons to know that a bad game is coming sooner rather than later. He's played far too flawlessly for that to continue, and this is a bad matchup for him after a big win last week.
Missouri has also struggled to consistently move the chains, particularly on third down, and A&M's defense has been excellent in those situations.
Running back Jamal Roberts has rushed for 395 yards and three touchdowns, but the Tigers could have difficulty establishing a consistent ground game against an Aggies defense allowing fewer than 19 points per contest.
The injury report is another concern. Offensive tackle Cayden Green is questionable, along with several other Missouri players, including defensive contributors Kensley Louidor-Faustin, Langden Kitchen, and Darris Smith.
Green's status is particularly important because he didn't allow a pressure against Florida, and losing that type of protection against Elko's defensive front would make sustaining drives considerably more difficult.
Simmons could be running for his life all afternoon, which gives me doubts that they are going to be able to score consistently.
Texas A&M vs Missouri NCAAF Pick to Bet
This total opened at 50.5 and has already been bet down to 48.5, and I'm willing to follow the move rather than chase last week's offensive box scores. Both defenses are generating negative EPA/Play allowed, with Missouri ranking 27th and Texas A&M 30th nationally.
The matchup also favors the defenses in several key situations. A&M is generating only a 39.6% offensive Success Rate and ranks 11th in Explosive Play Rate Allowed, while Missouri is allowing a 40% Success Rate and ranks 25th defensively.
On the other side, Missouri's 41.3% offensive Success Rate is hardly overwhelming, and A&M's ability to get off the field on third down should prevent Simmons from consistently sustaining long possessions. Finishing Drives will be important, but both defenses have the personnel to force field-goal attempts rather than allowing repeated touchdowns.
It's difficult to trust Reed to generate explosive passing plays, and while Simmons has been excellent, the potential absence of Green could make this matchup considerably more difficult than last week's.
Expect a physical game where possessions are earned, third downs matter, and neither offense consistently gets into rhythm. Follow the early money and take the Under before it drops below the key number of 48.
Pick: Under 48.5
