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The UCF Knights take on the Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater, OK. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Oklahoma State is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -360. The total is set at 52.5 points.
Here’s my UCF vs. Oklahoma State prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 10.
UCF Knights vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Prediction, Picks
- UCF vs. Oklahoma State Pick: Oklahoma State 1H Team Total Over 16.5 (-130 DraftKings)
My Oklahoma State vs. UCF best bet is on the Cowboys going over their first-half team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UCF vs Oklahoma State Odds, Line, Spread
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -108 | 53.5 -112o / -108u | +350 |
| Oklahoma State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -112 | 53.5 -112o / -108u | -455 |
- UCF vs Oklahoma State point spread: Oklahoma State -10.5, UCF +10.5
- UCF vs Oklahoma State over/under: 53.5 Points
- UCF vs Oklahoma State moneyline: UCF +350, Oklahoma State -455
UCF vs Oklahoma State NCAAF Preview
UCF Knights Betting Preview
UCF is coming off a tough 10-point loss at Houston last week, and the score likely shouldn't even have been that close.
Houston had three consecutive possessions end inside the UCF three-yard line, resulting in zero points. It also had two other drives that stalled at the Knights' 30-yard line, resulting in field goals.
The collapse makes this second of back-to-back road trips really difficult, as the absence of quarterback Alonza Barnett has been felt.
Keyone Jenkins threw the ball well last week and connected on three downfield explosives, but the ground game was inefficient. Outside of a 37-yard run by Duke Watson, UCF produced just 36 total rushing yards on its other 20 carries. UCF had just 13 total first downs in the game.
Jenkins was shaken up toward the end of last week, and while he should be good to go for this one, don't be surprised if the pass rush rattles him a bit this week.
The Knights' defensive metrics are aided by an FCS game against Bethune-Cookman, a game against Pitt played in a monsoon rainstorm and a home bout against TCU, which has substantial offensive woes.
The stop unit was shredded against Georgia State a couple of weeks ago, and Houston went up and down the field against it.
Oklahoma State has a potent offense fresh off a bye, so this will be a tough task for this defense.
UCF doesn't register a lot of havoc, and if the front isn't getting pressure, this might be the week the secondary truly gets torched.
Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Preview
It's increasingly looking like Oklahoma State's season-opening loss at Tulsa was more of an anomaly.
That stunning loss was followed up by an equally stunning win over Oregon at home as 23.5-point underdogs, and the Pokes have kept rolling in blowout wins over Murray State and West Virginia prior to the bye.
This group looks like a contender in the now wide-open Big 12, and you can expect a solid showing at home in this game.
Quarterback Drew Mestemaker looks as advertised, following up the early-season struggles against Tulsa with three straight games throwing for over 300 yards with multiple touchdown passes in each.
The versatile passing attack features weapons all over the field, including Wyatt Young, who leads the team with 410 pass-receiving yards on 22 catches.
Justin Bowick has 20 catches and 344 yards, while running back Caleb Hawkins has shown explosiveness as both a runner and pass receiver out of the running back spot.
This offense is dangerous and will put up points.
The defense is still a work in progress after a pair of solid showings and two poor outings, but there's reason for hope following the bye week.
Oklahoma State ranks in the top 45 in defensive success rate, explosiveness surrendered and points surrendered per opponent scoring opportunity.
This will never be an iron-clad, lock-down stop unit given the nature of the offensive style, but Oklahoma State has limited its opponents to converting just 28% of third-down attempts, and only half of opponent red zone trips have resulted in touchdowns.
In this system, that's all you're looking for.
UCF vs Oklahoma State College Football Pick
This line opened with Oklahoma State as an 8.5-point favorite with a total that's ticked up to 53.5. Respected money has come in on Oklahoma State, pushing this line out to -11.5.
Oklahoma State looks like a great bet to score more than 16.5 points in the first half.
The Cowboys have looked excellent offensively, and this unit will be well rested off the bye.
Meanwhile, UCF is reeling after blowing a 17-0 lead last week against Houston. The Cougars were able to move the football all over the field against the Knights, as was Georgia State, which scored on its last four first-half possessions after an early drive that resulted in a turnover on downs.
Oklahoma State is going to register explosive passing plays, and the offensive line is going to hold up against a UCF defense that doesn't excel in pressuring opposing quarterbacks.
Mestemaker is going to have time to deliver the ball downfield, and while UCF benefited from opponent miscues each of the last couple of weeks, that shouldn't continue in this one.
Oklahoma State has registered 554, 662 and 609 yards in each of the last three games while finding the red zone 20 times during that stretch.
Execution was poor heading into the bye week, and a concerted focus on red zone execution during the extended break will lead to this team finding the end zone early in this game.
This offense will come out hot and exceed its first-half team total.
Pick: Oklahoma State 1H Team Total Over 16.5
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