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The UNC Tar Heels take on the Pitt Panthers in Pittsburgh, PA. Kickoff is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Pitt is favored by -3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -176. The total is set at 47.5 points.
Here’s my UNC vs. Pitt prediction and college football pick for Saturday, October 10.
UNC vs Pitt Prediction, Picks
- UNC vs Pitt Pick: UNC Team Total Under 21.5
My Pitt vs. UNC best bet is on the under for the Tar Heels' team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
UNC vs Pitt Odds, Line, Spread
| UNC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -115 | 47 -110o / -110u | +150 |
| Pittsburgh Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -105 | 47 -110o / -110u | -180 |
- UNC vs Pitt point spread: UNC +4, Pitt -4
- UNC vs Pitt over/under: 47 Points
- UNC vs Pitt moneyline: UNC ML +150, Pitt ML -180
UNC vs Pitt NCAAF Betting Preview
UNC Tar Heels Betting Preview
Even though North Carolina managed to cover the spread against Notre Dame, it’s tough to put too much stock in its performance, especially since the Irish showed little motivation against inferior opponents in the past few weeks.
Billy Edwards Jr. was abysmal in the Tar Heels' loss to the Fighting Irish, throwing two picks while completing just 62% of his passes.
With Edwards under center, UNC has struggled through the air, ranking well below league average in pass play PPA and explosiveness.
When Edwards is unable to beat secondaries over the top, opposing defenses stack the box at a higher rate to neutralize UNC’s ground game, making the Tar Heels prone to stalling out.
UNC’s inability to take care of the ball also makes it difficult to sustain drives (81st in Havoc Allowed).
With the Tar Heels incapable of creating explosive plays, every lost possession plummets their probability of winning.
They've also underwhelmed on defense, limping into Week 6 ranked near dead last in success rate, points per opportunity and havoc.
Pitt Panthers Betting Preview
Victory over Virginia Tech aside, Pittsburgh’s outlook took a massive blow after it was reported that Mason Heintschel suffered a torn ACL.
While Heintschel's loss looks bad at first glance, most of his production came from two favorable matchups against Miami (OH) and Bucknell. Against the Hokies, Heintschel struggled to move the ball, throwing for just 113 yards while completing 55% of his passes.
While the Panthers are poised to regress on offense, it’s tough to envision them falling too far back with Holden Geriner injecting some versatility into the unit with his running ability.
In his brief time under center, Geriner has been able to extend plays with his legs this season, averaging nearly six yards per carry. Even with a very small sample size, every rush attempt negates the possibility of a turnover-worthy play.
If Geriner can force opposing linebackers to anchor on the outside, that will create more room for the Panthers' running backs. The RB group ranks outside the top 80 in rush success rate, PPA and explosiveness.
Even if Geriner handicaps Pittsburgh’s ceiling moving forward, the defense can keep the team competitive week-to-week, per top-15 marks in success rate and finishing drives.
Until we get more data on how the offense looks with Geriner under center, bypass the Panthers' spread and target the opponent's team total with the defense firing on all cylinders.
UNC vs Pitt NCAAF Pick
Like Pitt, UNC has also been unable to get into a groove on the ground, residing in the bottom half of the board in rush PPA and explosiveness.
When matched up against a high-quality front seven, Benjamin Hall couldn't gash the Fighting Irish, averaging 3.6 yards per carry on 10 attempts.
With neither facet of the offense clicking, the Tar Heels are vulnerable to spotting Pitt generous field position.
Since UNC can't create explosive plays, it makes the offense overly reliant on methodical drives, which is an unsustainable style of play when matched up against this type of defense. It also creates an incentive to start quicker, because it becomes difficult for the Tar Heels to overcome a big deficit.
With no clear path for success, expect the Tar Heels to continue to struggle to get into scoring position and be held under the key number of 21.5 on the team total.
If North Carolina’s team total crosses 21, reduce your wager and set a stop point at 17.5.
Pick: UNC Team Total Under 21.5
