The Texas Longhorns take on the Florida Gators in Gainesville, FL. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Texas is favored by 7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. Florida, meanwhile, comes in as a +7 underdog and sits at +210 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 42 total points.
Here’s my Texas vs. Florida prediction��and college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Texas vs Florida Prediction
- Texas vs. Florida Pick: 1H Under 21.5 · 1Q Under 7.5 or Better
My Florida vs. Texas best bet is on the two teams to score under 21.5 points in the first half. I would also take the first quarter under at 7.5 or higher. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Texas vs Florida Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 42 -110o / -110u | +210 |
- Texas vs Florida Spread: Texas -7, Florida +7
- Texas vs Florida Over/Under: 42 points
- Texas vs Florida Moneyline: Texas -260, Florida +210
Texas vs Florida Preview
Texas Longhorns Betting Preview: Trust Steady Defense to Continue
After three games of not meeting preseason expectations, Texas took Sam Houston to the woodshed on both sides of the ball before entering a bye week.
The Longhorns gained 77% of available yards and gave up just 9% to the Bearkats, resembling a fluidity that was expected in the season-opening loss to Ohio State.
After committing five turnover-worthy plays against Ohio State and San Jose State, quarterback Arch Manning has settled in over the past two games, posting just one mistake and tossing four passing touchdowns.
The scoring opportunities that have plagued the offense were relieved against Sam Houston, as Texas had seven red-zone attempts resulting in five touchdowns and a pair of field goals.
Defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski's 3-3-5 defense has been the biggest positive of the Longhorns' season through the first quarter of play. Ranking top-15 in overall Success Rate, Texas is the best defense in limiting quality drives and rush explosives.
Texas also sits seventh overall in hard stops, a PFF measurement that consists of a tackle that creates a failure for the offense.
Florida Gators Betting Preview: Lagway, Defense Trending Upward
Head coach Billy Napier has the hottest seat in college football, as a fourth consecutive loss could trigger a reset from athletic director Scott Stricklin.
Florida hasn't only lost three straight, but it has failed to cover against USF, LSU and Miami.
If there's a bit of positive news, quarterback DJ Lagway didn't commit a turnover-worthy play in the loss to the Hurricanes after posting six against LSU.
The numbers against The U suggest the Gators lost faith in their passing attack, as Lagway had an average depth of target of 3.7 yards on 12-of-23 passing.
The Gators posted a 21% Success Rate in passing downs and only 2.7 yards per play against the Hurricanes defense.
The 3-3-5 defense from co-coordinators Ron Roberts and Vinnie Sunseri has been excellent. The Gators rank top-25 against the rush in terms of efficiency, explosiveness and Stuff Rate.
The Gators have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, giving credit to a PFF tackling grade of seventh in FBS. Led by linebacker Myles Graham, Florida has allowed only eight red-zone trips the entire season.
Texas vs Florida Pick, Betting Analysis
There was no progress for the Florida offense in a loss to Miami, as Lagway was leashed with short routes and three drops by his targets.
The inside zone rushing attack needed every bit of Jadan Baugh's four yards after first contact, as the offensive line sits outside the top 40 in Line Yards and outside the top 80 in Stuff Rate.
Texas has posted an average Defensive Success Rate against inside zone concepts, but passing attempts from Lagway into the Longhorns' nickel defense could be troublesome.
Florida has averaged just five offensive possessions per game when it comes to crossing the opponent's 40-yard line.
Conversely, the outside zone and counter concepts called by head coach Steve Sarkisian should have success moving Texas into scoring opportunities.
The Longhorns have a minimum 61% Success Rate on those rushing attempts, concepts that Florida has posted just a 44% Success Rate in defending.
Texas hasn't had problems creating scoring opportunities. The issues have stemmed from an inability to put points on the board under Sarkisian.
The Florida defense has been excellent when pinned against the goal line, ranking 25th in Finishing Drives allowed. The Gators have had only 10 opponent red-zone attempts, emphasizing the strength of a defense that's allowed 18 opponent possessions to cross the 40-yard line.
Between Florida's defense stiffening, Texas' inefficiency in scoring opportunities and a limited Florida offense, there could be a number of possessions ending in a field-goal attempt.
These defenses have been elite in the opening quarter of the game, as Texas hasn't allowed a single point in the first 15 minutes of any game.
Florida has also limited opponents early, allowing only a Miami touchdown as the only first-quarter points this season against the Gators.
Pick: 1H Under 21.5 · 1Q Under 7.5 or Better
