Texas vs. Texas Tech Odds, Picks: How to Bet In-State Rivalry (Saturday, September 25)

Texas vs. Texas Tech Odds, Picks: How to Bet In-State Rivalry (Saturday, September 25) article feature image
Credit:

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Steve Sarkisian.

  • The Texas Longhorns and Texas Tech Red Raiders will hit the field in an in-state conference game on Saturday.
  • The Longhorns can put up points in a hurry when things are going well, and Keg sees both teams lighting up the scoreboard today.
  • Check out Keg's full betting guide with college football odds and picks below.

Texas vs. Texas Tech Odds

Texas Odds -9 (-115)
Texas Tech Odds +9 (-105)
Moneyline -400 / +300
Over/Under 62.5 (+100 / -120)
Time 12 p.m. ET
TV ABC
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Saturday college football action kicks off at noon with what should be one of the most intense games of the day.

Texas Tech will travel to Austin to face in-state rival Texas in the teams’ first meeting that hasn’t taken place on Thanksgiving weekend since 2011.

The Red Raiders are off to an impressive 3-0 start, which began with an upset against Houston in Week 1. The Longhorns had a 58-0 shutout win last week against Rice to get back on track after an embarrassing loss to Arkansas in Week 2.

Texas leads the all-time series between the two teams, 53-17, and has won 10 of the last 12 meetings.

Steve Sarkisian will look to get his first Big 12 conference win since becoming the head coach at Texas, but this Red Raiders’ defense may have other ideas.


Texas vs. Texas Tech Betting Preview

Saturday, Sept. 25
12 p.m. ET
ABC

Texas Longhorns

Texas Offense

Steve Sarkisian’s first season at Texas is off to an up-and-down start. After a back-and-fourth quarterback battle in camp, Casey Thompson has established himself as the starter.

Thompson completed 15-of-18 passing attempts last week against Rice while averaging 9.1 yards per pass. He has maintained a 77% completion percentage through three games, which is a number that I expect to increase against the worst pass defense in the Big 12.

The most important piece of this offense, however, is in the backfield.

Robinson surpassed the 1,000-yard mark for his career last Saturday against Rice, becoming the 55th Longhorn to do so and the fastest since Jamaal Charles.

Currently averaging 8.3 yards per carry for his career,  I’m very excited to see how he fairs against the Red Raiders’ defense.


Texas Defense

After allowing Arkansas to rush for 333 yards, the Longhorns put on a defensive masterclass against Rice. While they were expected to dominate, not allowing Rice to put a single point on the board helped restore confidence in this unit.

On Saturday, nearly every player on the Longhorns’ defense contributed, with 31 different Longhorns recording at least one tackle. They’ll need that same level of determination this week if they want to slow down Shough and the Tech air raid.

This Texas defense has yet to see any dominant passing attack at all so far, though.

Louisiana had some success throwing but only did so because they couldn’t get anything going on the ground. Arkansas had no reason to throw with how well it could run all over Texas. And Rice, well, it’s Rice, and shutting them down isn’t exactly anything to brag about.


Texas Tech Red Raiders

Texas Tech Offense

The Red Raiders are off to a hot start and have QB Tyler Shough to thank for it. Slough currently leads the Big 12 in passing yards per game with 268.

The offense also currently ranks 26th nationally in scoring offense, is averaging 40 points per game and has a top-75 ranking in both rush and passing offense.

On paper, you would think the Tech air raid offense has returned to the days of waking up and scoring 400 yards without even trying.

However, when you look at the Red Raiders’ schedule so far, there’s cause to take a step back. They’ve played Houston, Stephen F. Austin and FIU, with the win vs. SFA coming by only six points despite being a 31-point favorite.

This weekend we will find out if these Red Raiders are as good as they look on paper.


Texas Tech Defense

The Red Raiders’ most significant risk of exposure this weekend will come via their run defense.

While they currently rank second in the Big 12 in rush defense while allowing only 54 rush yards per game, the Texas rushing attack — led by Bijon Robinson — will put this defense to the test.

Nationally, the Red Raiders rank 28th in total defense, but again, I find these rankings to be somewhat empty with the teams they have played so far.

One number that is very real, Texas Tech currently leads the Big 12 in penalty yards, and it can’t give up free yardage at that rate if it wants to keep it close against Texas.

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Texas vs. Texas Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas Tech and Texas match up statistically:

Texas Tech Offense vs. Texas Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 39 109
Line Yards 19 89
Pass Success 6 115
Pass Blocking** 60 95
Big Play 35 101
Havoc 41 93
Finishing Drives 6 73
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Texas Offense vs. Texas Tech Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 69 35
Line Yards 73 7
Pass Success 75 10
Pass Blocking** 72 26
Big Play 45 25
Havoc 51 22
Finishing Drives 8 82
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 48 72
PFF Coverage 13 24
Middle 8 64 3
SP+ Special Teams 15 93
Plays per Minute 65 98
Rush Rate 52.8% (76) 63.9% (19)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


This game will give us a very accurate idea of how good this Texas Tech team is. And while I think Texas will be able to poke a lot of holes in this team’s stats so far this year, the Red Raiders will still be able to put points on their opponent’s secondary.

Five of the last six meetings between these two teams have been decided by less than a touchdown. With the current number moving between 7 and 10, I am staying away from the spread.

Both these teams will be able to put points up, as Texas will struggle with the Air Raid and Tech will struggle to find answers for Robinson on the ground.

I expect this rivalry to stay close, but I’m taking the over.


Texas vs. Texas Tech Betting Pick

The total opened at 60.5 and moved up slightly to 61.5 before being pushed back down to 61.

I was able to get this over at 61 (-110), and I would take it up to 63 (-105).

Pick: Over 61 (Play to 63)

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