The Toledo Rockets take on the Western Michigan Broncos in Kalamazoo, Michigan. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
Toledo is favored by 14.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -600. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here’s my Toledo vs. Western Michigan prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 20, 2025.
Toledo vs Western Michigan Prediction
- Toledo vs. Western Michigan Pick: Under 50.5
My Western Michigan vs. Toledo best bet is on the Under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Toledo vs Western Michigan Odds
| Toledo Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
| W. Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
- Toledo vs Western Michigan point spread: Toledo -14.5
- Toledo vs Western Michigan over/under: 50.5 points
- Toledo vs Western Michigan moneyline: Toledo -600, Western Michigan +450
Toledo vs Western Michigan Preview
Toledo Rockets Betting Preview
At least one Group of Five preseason favorite is living up to expectations early in the season.
Through three games, Toledo is 3-0 against the spread with an eight-point loss to Kentucky (closed near the end of the game – it didn't have to be that close), a confident win over Western Kentucky, and a 60-0 blowout of FCS Morgan State.
FBS journeyman Chip Trayanum is finally proving his mettle, scoring four rushing touchdowns on just 39 carries and finding the end zone another time in the receiving game.
Overall, Toledo's rushing attack is strong, but it's the passing game that makes the offense dangerous.
Quarterback Tucker Gleason has connected with star receiver Junior Vandeross III, the Rockets' latest high-profile NFL prospect, three times for touchdowns.
Predictably, Toledo's defensive secondary has completely shut down opposing passing attacks. Zach Calzada mustered 85 measly passing yards in Week 1, WKU's Air Raid managed just one single score before things got out of hand (45-7), and Morgan State scored zero points.
Barring a truly elite-level passing attack with NFL prospects in the receiving corps, teams won't be able to throw on Toledo, period.
Andre Fuller has returned from a season-ending injury in full force. He's been thrown at 14 times, resulting in four forced incompletions, two direct pass breakups, and just four completions (zero touchdowns). Fuller is a truly transformative player who needs game planning around.
But if there is a shortcoming for Toledo, it's head coach Jason Candle's propensity to drop games as big favorites.
With a spot in the MAC Championship on the line last year, Toledo lost to Akron outright as 8.5-point favorites; in 2022, the Rockets lost at Bowling Green as 15-point favorites and Western Michigan the week after as eight-point favorites. Since 2021, Candle has lost outright nine times as a seven-plus point favorite.
Western Michigan Broncos Betting Preview
On one hand, Western Michigan began the year 0-3. It's staring down a 0-4 start as a multi-touchdown underdog against Toledo, the top team in the MAC.
On the other hand, WMU has played three solid teams – two from the Big Ten (including top-10 Illinois) and a North Texas squad that's 3-0 with a pair of 50 burgers under its belt.
Full transparency, WMU is a team I'm looking to back moving forward (to some degree). Its next four games include FCS Rhode Island and two FBS teams outside the top 120 nationally (UMass, Central Michigan); even Miami (OH) doesn't look impenetrable.
But the Broncos' quarterback situation appears dire.
A combination of Broc Lowry and Brady Jones has failed to individually throw for 100 yards and a touchdown in the same game. Five players have more than three targets on the season; none have more than 11; and the two leading target-getters on the team, (a) caught fewer than 60% of their targets and, (b) result in passer ratings of 37.7 and 51.3 when targeted.
Running back Jalen Buckley is about the only viable weapon on the field. However, Buckley is good enough to usually be the most talented player on the turf at any given time, save for WMU's game against Illinois. Buckley's also the most viable pass-catching weapon – he's caught 6-of-8 targets for the team's only receiving touchdown yet this season.
Special teams has put Western Michigan in good positions all year. Against North Texas, WMU scored on drives of 36, 41, and 61 yards, all set up in the return game.
Toledo vs Western Michigan Pick, Betting Analysis
Toledo opened this game as an 11.5-point favorite and jumped to a 14.5-point favorite by Thursday morning.
Trying to predict Candle's "whoopsie" game is a fool's errand, and I'm not here to sell you fool's gold. Just one of those nine outright losses as seven-plus point favorites came in September (Colorado State, 2021, which resulted in a 7-6 Toledo team).
On one side of the ball, the formula is pretty straightforward.
Toledo fields a top-tier defense, and Western Michigan fields a bottom-rung offense with no threat of passing. Buckley may be able to find success on the ground, but when a team becomes one-dimensional, that single dimension becomes obsolete as the defense keys in on it. Against WKU and Morgan State, Toledo didn't allow a 25-yard rusher.
Buckley almost certainly finds his way to 25 yards, but I don't trust a bad offensive line and a single running back to carry water on WMU's side.
Toledo ranks 84th nationally in seconds per play, and even when playing catch-up, the Rockets ran just 68 plays from scrimmage against Kentucky. It's not a blazing pace by any stretch.
Western Michigan doesn't move much quicker, and its reliance on the ground game milks the clock faster.
I'm fading the Broncos' ability to cover the point total against the spread on Saturday and Toledo's willingness and ability to cover this number itself.
I'm looking to play Under on the total.
Pick: Under 50.5
Toledo vs Western Michigan Betting Trends
