Navy at Tulane Updated Betting Odds & Pick: Will Green Wave Sink Midshipmen’s Season? (Saturday, Sept. 19)
Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images. Pictured: Tulane Green Wave football team at Yulman Stadium.
- Tulane hosts Navy to kick off the noon ET college football slate for Week 3, and this game has gotten heavy betting action from open.
- The total opened from 49.5 to 51 across the market but has fallen as low as 46 at some books as of Saturday morning, due in large part to ominous weather forecasts for New Orleans, LA.
- Collin Wilson breaks down the matchup between the Green Wave and Midshipmen, including why he's backing Tulane to double-down on BYU's dominant effort against Navy in Week 1.
Navy at Tulane Odds
|Navy Odds||+6.5 [BET NOW]|
|Tulane Odds||-6.5 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||47.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||12:00 p.m. ET|
What happened to Navy in Week 1 creates a tough handicapping scenario for anyone that generates a power rating. Do we throw out the 55-3 loss to BYU? Can we gamble on an offense that had only three scoring opportunities and converted them to only three points?
Navy did not post a single explosive drive, achieved a low 27% success rate and averaged 3.1 yards per play. After splitting snaps with Dalen Morris against BYU, Navy quarterback Perry Olsen decided to transfer.
— Perry Olsen † (@pdolsen11) September 11, 2020
The biggest issue for the Navy offense wasn’t the play of quarterback, but the run disruptions allowed by the offensive line. An average FBS offensive line will have a run disruption of 5% or less. The Midshipmen offensive line had three linemen post a run disruption rate in the double-digits.
Navy has since returned to physical practices, but will that be enough against a Tulane defensive front that put on a run-stuffing clinic at South Alabama? Down 24-13 to the Jaguars, the Green Wave defensive line took over the game. Tulane finished with 12 tackles for loss, five sacks and numerous quarterback hurries.
Don’t expect the Navy triple-option to stop Willie Fritz’s defense from being prepared. Tulane was practicing for Navy well before the opening trip to South Alabama.
As for the Green Wave offense, its largest concern entering 2020 was the team’s woefully low 31% returning offensive production from the previous season. Tulane stumbled out of the gate with three drives ending in a punt and another a turnover on downs in the first half. However, offensive coordinator Will Hall made adjustments at halftime and outscored South Alabama 21-10 in the second half.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Look for Navy to struggle with another physical defensive front, as Tulane is fifth in tackles for loss. Yulman Stadium will have double-digit winds whipping from sideline to sideline, which increases the probability for this game to go under the projection. Considering Navy just returned to tacking in practice a week ago, laying the number with Tulane is the safer bet.
The Bet: Tulane -6.5