UCF vs Memphis Odds, Picks | How to Bet This AAC Clash
Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Mikey Keene (UCF)
UCF vs Memphis Odds
| UCF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
The AAC has shaped into a highly competitive conference with a boatload of parity thus far.
In this matchup, one of the conference's two ranked teams in UCF will go on the road to face a Memphis squad that is looking to get back on track.
The Knights have been impressive this season, as their high-powered offense stayed in place despite Dillon Gabriel transferring this past offseason.
However, who the offense will be led by in this matchup is a big question mark, and it could dramatically impact how this one turns out.
As for the Tigers, this is a game that may very well define their season. They started out hot, as they steam-rolled three of their four non-conference opponents.
However, they haven't won a game in over a month, as they've lost three straight entering this one.
The silver lining in those losses is that two of them were by a combined three points, and then they rallied from behind against Tulane. They seem to be on the verge of a breakthrough, but will it come here?
Let's dive in to find out.
As I touched upon in the open, this entire game depends on the status of UCF Knights starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee. Plumlee is an exceptional athlete who has proven to be as much of a threat on the ground as he is through the air.
He is the team's leading rusher and has six fewer carries than starting running back Isaiah Bowser.
However, Plumlee's status is up in the air, as he left last week's game against Cincinnati with an undisclosed injury.
Sophomore Mikey Keene stepped up in the wake of Plumlee's injury, as he went 15-for-21 and led the Knights down the field for the game-winning score with just 48 seconds on the clock.
His effort was exceptional and has now created a bit of quarterback controversy among the UCF faithful.
Controversy aside, what makes the most significant difference in this matchup is the contrasting styles of the two quarterbacks. Plumlee will be a dual threat and do plenty of damage on the ground against this Tigers' defense that will be outmatched up front.
However, if Keene plays, the rushing load will shift to Bowser and the rest of the backfield, as Keene is a pocket passer.
Keene or Plumlee should have a great deal of success throwing the ball, as the Tigers are 104th in Passing Success Rate. That metric is composed of their 101st rank in opponent completion percentage allowed and their rank of 112th in passing yards allowed per game.
So, whoever is under center should be able to move the ball quite a bit.
Memphis Tigers
While we have far less to worry about when it comes to the Memphis offense, what it will have to worry about is getting its passing game going.
The Tigers have deployed a balanced offensive attack this season, but have gotten mixed results from their trio of running backs.
However, who has been consistent is quarterback Seth Henigan.
Henigan enters this game with a 15:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio while averaging over eight yards per pass. Even though it may look like he has a decent matchup, the Knights' secondary has been peppered this season, as they've defended one of the highest pass-play rates in the country.
With a volume like that, overall yardage must be taken with a grain of salt.
A closer look reveals just how good the Knights have been against the pass, as they are 39th in opponent yards per pass and 46th in completion percentage allowed.
Memphis may have to turn to the air more in this matchup, as the Knights have done an excellent job of shutting down the run game. Although, how much success Memphis will have depends on how often it's willing to throw it.
UCF vs Memphis Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCF and Memphis match up statistically:
UCF Offense vs. Memphis Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 14 | 62 | |
| Line Yards | 14 | 65 | |
| Pass Success | 20 | 104 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 5 | 93 | |
| Havoc | 46 | 112 | |
| Finishing Drives | 95 | 106 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Memphis Offense vs. UCF Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 51 | 9 | |
| Line Yards | 88 | 27 | |
| Pass Success | 55 | 74 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 79 | 79 |  |
| Havoc | 95 | 34 | |
| Finishing Drives | 33 | 14 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 33 | 26 |
| PFF Coverage | 54 | 45 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 66 | 11 |
| Seconds per Play | 25.0 (35) | 24.0 (23) |
| Rush Rate | 59.6% (25) | 51.4% (75) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focu,s, and SportSource Analytics.
UCF vs Memphis Betting Pick
This number has moved significantly since opening, as we've seen it drop from six to three at some sharper books.
However, this move is a bit of an overreaction by the market, as Keene should perform well if he's under center in this one.
I'm going to back the Knights at -3 or better, as the drop-off from Plumlee to Keene is not as significant as the market thinks.
Pick: UCF -3 or Better |
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