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College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions for UCF vs. Tulane

College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions for UCF vs. Tulane article feature image
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Alex Menendez/Getty Images. Pictured: UCF’s Isaiah Bowser.

UCF vs Tulane Odds

Saturday, Nov. 12
3:30 p.m. ET
ESPN2
UCF Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+1
-110
54.5
-110o / -110u
+100
Tulane Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-1
-110
54.5
-110o / -110u
-120
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

UCF will travel to New Orleans to keep hopes of competing for a conference championship alive.

A victory by the Knights will all but guarantee a conference title game on their home soil at the Bounce House. A loss to Tulane would bump Cincinnati into second place in the conference with a projected trip to Yulman Stadium for a crawfish boil and a chance to win the AAC.

Outside of competing for the conference, these three teams also have a stake in making a New Year’s Six bowl. Tulane is projected to win the AAC and compete against LSU at the Cotton Bowl in Brett McMurphy‘s latest bowl projections.

The Green Wave have been a wagon for investors in 2022, covering eight of their nine games this season. Tulane has not won a conference title since the 1998 season in Conference USA.

Head coach Willie Fritz would bring Tulane a conference championship for only the second time since winning an SEC title in 1949. 


Central Florida Knights

After throwing 17 touchdowns last season, Mikey Keene was ready to step in and start after John Rhys Plumlee remained in concussion protocol. The sophomore did enough against Memphis to secure the win, recording four big-time throws and just one interception.

The Knights leaned into their heavy rush attack, putting up more than 200 yards with RJ Harvey and Isaiah Bowser. Any opponent looking to beat Central Florida must deal with a top-20 rushing attack.

RJ Harvey battles his way to the end zone and gets UCF on the board! 🏈👏#AmericanFB x @UCF_Football pic.twitter.com/sh2Vhnq77e

— American Football (@American_FB) November 5, 2022

Defensive coordinator Travis Williams is the subject of coaching searches, most recently at nearby South Florida.

The Knights have been excellent when opponents reach scoring position, allowing just 3.1 points on 47 attempts so far this season. Central Florida comes in as the top defense in the nation in terms of red-zone defense, as the Knights have allowed a score on just 61% of opponent attempts. Only Georgia has forced a higher rate of field goals.

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Tulane Green Wave

No other team is on better a roll than Tulane this football season. The Green Wave have covered five straight games, beating the best in the American Athletic Conference.

Fritz is sure to be a top candidate for Coach of the Year, with the strength of the team coming on the defense.

Coordinator Chris Hampton is responsible for a coverage unit that ranks top-10, highlighted by a top-20 rank in Success Rate and Explosiveness against opponents in passing downs.

Linebackers Dorian Williams and Nick Anderson have started most of the Havoc, both leading the team in tackles. The Green Wave have excelled in limiting explosive plays, allowing just nine plays from scrimmage to exceed 30 yards.

Dorian Williams sack!! 💪💪 pic.twitter.com/4liwSrFxHr

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) November 5, 2022

While the defense has been Tulane’s stable entity, the offense is led by quarterback Michael Pratt.

Although the Green Wave struggle in Success Rate with the rush, the offense moves the chains through the air. Tulane ranks 25th in Passing Success Rate, with Pratt recording 14 touchdowns to just four interceptions this season.

Duece Watts continues to be a leading target each week, ranking up more than 16 yards per catch despite having the highest number of contested targets.


UCF vs Tulane Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UCF and Tulane match up statistically:

UCF Offense vs. Tulane Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 15 36
Line Yards 19 84
Pass Success 16 44
Pass Blocking** 36 80
Havoc 40 98
Finishing Drives 73 56
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Tulane Offense vs. UCF Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 73 23
Line Yards 70 29
Pass Success 25 82
Pass Blocking** 111 86
Havoc 31 38
Finishing Drives 55 13
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 29 31
PFF Coverage 69 7
SP+ Special Teams 66 83
Seconds per Play 25.0 (35) 27.2 (90)
Rush Rate 59.5% (25) 59.7% (23)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

UCF vs Tulane Betting Pick

Action Network projects Tulane as a small favorite in a game to determine who will play in the American Athletic Conference Championship.

Central Florida will have advantages rushing the ball, as Tulane ranks outside the top 80 in Line Yards and Defensive Stuff Rate. Plumlee’s return at quarterback would further enhance the rush advantages, as he has nearly three times as many yards from designed runs as scrambles.

The advantages for Tulane exist in the passing game, with the Central Florida defense ranking mid-FBS in coverage. While the Green Wave aren’t explosive in passing downs, Tulane is one of the most successful teams in moving the chains after getting behind schedule.

Both of these teams have statistical advantages in limiting scoring opportunities and red-zone defense.

Despite the defenses stiffening when opponents are in scoring position, getting points in this game is the desired investment.

Central Florida doesn’t have to worry about Havoc or a pass rush no matter which quarterback plays under center. Tulane will meet a Knights defense that is elite in stopping the run, as the Green Wave prefer to pass when off schedule.

Look for points with UCF as it looks to take control of the AAC.

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