The ULM Warhawks take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs in Starkville on Saturday, Sept. 5. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Mississippi State is favored by -28.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -8000. ULM, meanwhile, enters as a +28.5 underdog and is +2200 moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 54.5 total points.
Here’s my ULM vs. Mississippi State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 5.
ULM vs Mississippi State Prediction
- ULM vs. Mississippi State Pick: Mississippi State -28.5
My Mississippi State vs. ULM best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
ULM vs Mississippi State Odds
| ULM Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+28.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | +2200 |
| Mississippi St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-28.5 -110 | 54.5 -110o / -110u | -8000 |
- ULM vs Mississippi State point spread: Mississippi State -28.5 (-110), ULM +28.5 (-110)
- ULM vs Mississippi State over/under: 54.5 (-110o / -110u)
- ULM vs Mississippi State moneyline: ULM +2200, Mississippi State -8000
ULM vs Mississippi State College Football Preview
ULM Warhawks Betting Preview: Can They Run?
ULM’s quarterback situation is a problem. Aidan Armenta is back, but that’s not a great thing for the Warhawks.
He was a dink-and-dunk QB last year (6.4 yards per attempt) with a one-to-one ratio of big-time throws to turnover-worthy plays. E
ven if they turn to Houston transfer Austin Carlisle, you’re still working with an undersized passer who’s more athletic than transformational. That might be fine in Sun Belt play but not against Mississippi State.
ULM’s first-year offensive coordinator, Jesse Montalto, had a nice run as a JUCO head coach, but he doesn’t exactly have difference-makers to work with.
Running back Don Cheney could be a name to watch at running back as a former blue-chipper who has bounced around the FBS ranks.
The line returns a lot of experience (20th), but that group ranked just 70th in run blocking last season. Their best lineman, All-Sun Belt honorable mention Elijah Fisher, has graduated, and several starters weren’t replaced. That’s a thin reed to lean on.
Why does that matter? Because Bryant Vincent’s teams get steamrolled when they can’t run.
Last year was brutal: 73-0 at Alabama (sub-100 rushing yards), 42-7 at Northwestern (again under 100) and 51-3 at Texas in 2024 — and that was with Ahmad Hardy.
Put ULM in a box on the ground, and things go sideways fast.
Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Kamario Taylor Time
Mississippi State’s run defense looked awful last year. What has changed? It wisely brought Zach Arnett back.
Arnett wasn’t a great head coach, but he was a very good defensive coordinator in Starkville. Under Arnett in 2021-22, the defense ranked fifth in the SEC.
Add in two four-star linemen and the return of Will Whitson from a knee injury, and there's a noticeable upgrade up front. I expect Mississippi State to dominate the trenches and smother this ULM offense.
On offense, it's Kamario Taylor time.
I’m high on this kid because he’s a menace on the ground (173 yards and two scores in the Egg Bowl against Ole Miss). He has been anointed the QB1 this offseason. He went to the Manning Passing Academy and even impressed Archie Manning.
Taylor's not alone, either. Fluff Bothwell returns in the backfield and Anthony Evans III in the slot, and head coach Jeff Lebby's system has been a slow burn that looks ready to pop.
If you try to blitz "Super Kamario," you’re inviting trouble. He can hurt opponents on the ground and through the air.
ULM vs Mississippi State Pick, Betting Analysis
With Taylor firmly entrenched as the starter, Mississippi State’s offense has the pieces and the scheme to feast against a lowly Sun Belt defense.
The Bulldogs should take full advantage on offense while smothering a weak Warhawks offense on the other side of the ball.
I'm going to lay the points with Mississippi State here. Hail State.
Pick: Mississippi State -28.5
ULM vs Mississippi State Betting Trends
