UNLV vs. Fresno State Betting Odds, Picks: Are the Bulldogs Being Overvalued?
Isaiah J. Downing, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Blake Cusick
UNLV at Fresno State Odds
- Spread: Fresno State -14.5
- Over/Under: 52.5
- Time: Friday, 10 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS Sports Network
UNLV vs. Fresno State Line Movement
This line has seen plenty of movement since opening — especially from the earliest books to market. Fresno was all the way down at -11.5 when lines were first released, but was quickly bet through the two-touchdown mark to -14.5. From there, the line made it up to 16, and even 16.5, before being bet back to 14.5 on Thursday. Fresno has drawn 64% of money on 53% of bets.
And despite bettors being split on the total (51% on the under), the number has dropped from 55 to 53 as nearly all the money (95%) has hit the under. — Danny Donahue
Stuckey: Should Bettors Expect a Blowout?
This has blowout written all over it as the Bulldogs look to bounce back from a bad conference loss against an inferior opponent at home. It’s also a sleepy spot for UNLV, which earned one of the program’s biggest wins last week at Vanderbilt.
Not only will UNLV have to re-focus after that enormous upset, but the Rebels are traveling for the second weekend in a row and are on short rest. UNLV will also likely be without quarterback Armani Rogers, meaning freshman Kenyon Oblad will get his second straight start.
The offense just isn’t as explosive with Oblad, who is nowhere near the caliber of runner that Rogers is in the RPO game.
In almost identical amout of minutes against FBS opponents this year, the UNLV offense is averaging a yard fewer on the ground with Oblad under center.
UNLV, who ran it 51 times against only 16 passes last week, will have to try to methodically grind drives with its backs, which should keep the clock moving when UNLV is on offense.
The Fresno State defense does have some issues on the front 7, but it’s more than capable of slowing down this sub-par offense.
Fresno plays at a slower pace, which should help the under, but you can expect the Bulldogs to have enough success against a porous UNLV defense to build up a comfortable lead.
This is also a huge coaching mismatch as Fresno has one of the better Group of 5 staffs and UNLV has one of the worst.
I make this line Fresno -20 before even accounting for the favorable situational spot for Fresno, so would take the home team at anything 17 or below. I’d also play Under 52 or above.
The Pick(s): Fresno -17 or better; Under 52 or better
Collin Wilson: A Trend Worth Gambling On
Despite the number of quarterbacks to come through UNLV over the years, the constant under Tony Sanchez has been the running game. The Rebels’ best performances this season have come when the offense was able to rush more than pass.
UNLV’s best showings this season were an upset over Vanderbilt and a cover against Northwestern. The common thread in both of those games was that the Rebels ran the ball more than they passed. UNLV was limited to just 80 yards on the ground in losses, both straight-up and ATS, against Boise State and Wyoming.
If Fresno State can stop UNLV on the ground, it should be able to cover this spread. The advanced stats suggest that’s easier said than done as the Bulldogs defense is 110th in line yards, 116th in opportunity rate and 108th in power success rate.
I’m not backing UNLV over the full-game, but there may be an opportunity to get on them after the intermission, as the Bulldogs profile as a good second-half fade team.
Through five games this season, the Bulldogs have just a single touchdown in the 3rd quarter. Sacramento State and Air Force held Fresno State to zero points in the 3rd quarter and just eight overall in the second half.
It is a trend worth gambling on considering the second-half line could get inflated by how many points the Bulldogs can put up in the first half. The plan of action is bet UNLV for the second half if they are trailing. That could always change, so be sure to follow me on the Action App, but that’s my strategy going into the game.
Also note that if UNLV defers to receive the ball in the second half, then a live bet before the Rebels’ last possession in the second Quarter is also recommended.