I've circled three more NCAAF spots in the afternoon window for Week 10's slate.
New Mexico battles a highly overrated UNLV squad, Georgia and Florida face off again, while the Terrapins will host the unstoppable Hoosiers.
Read on for my NCAAF predictions and picks, and check out my whole Week 10 spots piece here.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | New Mexico +5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Florida +7.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Maryland +22 |
New Mexico +5 at UNLV
3 p.m. ET ⋅ Mountain West Network
If you've read this piece this season, you know I'm not a believer in this 6-1 Rebels squad. They started the season with wins over Sam Houston, Idaho State, and the previous corpse of UCLA — and didn't look great in the process.
They then followed that up with a pair of road wins over Miami (OH) and Wyoming.
However, they were about to get blown out of the water in Oxford before Dequan Finn suffered an injury on a pick-six late in the first half. Even with a backup quarterback, Miami still was in position to win before a late red-zone fumble.
Against Wyoming in a hail storm, the Rebels pulled out a 14-point victory in large part due to a pair of punt blocks they returned for touchdowns.
The Cowboys (who went 1-for-3 on fourth down compared to UNLV's 2-for-2 mark) finished with over 100 more net yards and a higher net yards per play.
UNLV then pulled out a last-minute comeback win over Air Force, 51-48, after allowing over 600 yards of total offense.
It once again benefited from winning the turnover battle (a key fumble that led to a short field touchdown) and an Air Force missed 40-yard game-tying kick at the end of regulation.
And in its most recent game, UNLV got dominated on the road by Boise State
Its strength of schedule lies outside the top 100, but it has benefited from UCLA's post-coaching change rebound and Miami (OH) playing with its starting quarterback since.
The Rebels have also been quite fortunate in the turnover department, holding a +10 margin. Their per-game average of +1.2 ranks in the top-10 nationally, while New Mexico has been on the complete opposite end of the spectrum — ahead of only Florida Atlantic in that department.
Don't be surprised if a few bounces go New Mexico's way.
The Lobos, under the tutelage of rising star head coach Jason Eck, should be able to run their offense with ease all game against a Rebels defense that can't stop the run.
In fact, they rank dead last in the country in yards before contact allowed. That will enable the Lobos to stay ahead of the sticks and run their stuff against a very undisciplined defense.
Ultimately, I don't see much difference between these teams in a game that should come down to which team has the ball last, so I happily took the five points with the conference road dog.
Pick: New Mexico +4.5 or Better
Florida +7.5 vs. Georgia
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC
A new coach bump for the Gators? We've certainly seen that play out in the past, including this year with UAB and UCLA. In a rivalry game, I'm not expecting any quit in the Gators for the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
In fact, I'm expecting more energy under Billy Gonzales, who will switch some things up offensively ahead of this matchup. You can expect more tempo and quite a few wrinkles early on that might catch Georgia off guard.
That could lead to Florida getting out to a significant early lead, which ultimately wouldn't be a surprise against the slow-starting Bulldogs, who have been outscored 56-10 in the first quarter of their five SEC bouts.
Not only does Florida need changes on that side of the ball, but quarterback DJ Lagway should once again really benefit from the bye week to get even healthier and work on the timing with his receivers, which he didn't get to do leading up to the season.
Florida will be a bit shorthanded at wide receiver without Aidan Mizell and Vernell Brown, which certainly doesn't help matters.
However, the Gators still have enough talent with star freshman Dallas Wilson and Eugene Wilson, who has flashed in practice over the past two weeks and was being criminally misused under Napier.
With Lagway likely having ample time to operate in the pocket against a Georgia defense that can't generate pressure (the Dawgs rank outside the top-100 in pressure rate and sack rate), he should be able to find advantageous matchups on the outside against a vulnerable secondary.
Georgia will also be without a key wide receiver in Colbie Young, who ranks second on the team in receptions and yards.
And it at least looks like Florida will have all its defensive backs healthy for this tilt after it was severely shorthanded against Mississippi State.
Ultimately, I do think Florida is in a good situational spot with the new coach bump and is a bit undervalued after Lagway's early-season struggles due to injury and missed time in the offseason.
Consequently, I was really looking for over a touchdown here, as I do expect the Gators to be very game, especially early on against a Georgia team that has all of the pressure on it.
Plus, I still maintain that this Georgia team is overrated.
This is not your older brother's Dawgs, especially on defense. They easily could have two more losses on the season if not for late comebacks against Ole Miss and Tennessee, in addition to some ref assistance that prevented Auburn from jumping out to a 17-0 lead.
My primary concerns for this matchup boil down to Kirby Smart's in-game adjustments and the Gators' inability to generate pressure on their own, especially without Caleb Banks on the interior.
UGA quarterback Gunner Stockton has been nearly flawless when kept clean this season, and he shouldn't have to deal with many bodies in his face here.
The Florida defense should hold up against the run, so those passing downs will be critical in deciding the outcome.
Regarding Kirby's adjustments, they have essentially won multiple games for Georgia this season and should have led to another after it held Alabama scoreless in the second half. As a result, I will undoubtedly be looking to back the Dawgs live if they trail early, as usual.
Lastly, Georgia has elite special teams under Smart, but Florida won't be at a severe disadvantage in that department.
Pick: Florida +7.5 (-120) or Better
Maryland +22 vs. Indiana
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS
I'll be the idiot to get in front of this Curt Cignetti train since I do like the spot and project this spread under three touchdowns.
Look, I'm a full-on believer in this Hoosiers squad. I have them power-rated as the No. 2 team in the country, trailing only Ohio State.
However, at this price range, based on the past two closing spreads against UCLA and Michigan State (where IU went 1-1 ATS), we are essentially calling Maryland equal to UCLA and Michigan State.
Not in my book.
I'm aware that Maryland closed as an underdog slightly above a field goal on the road at UCLA, but that cross-country spot has been worth about 4.5-5 points.
Plus, unlike those two teams, Maryland actually has a very stout defense that ranks in the top 25 nationally when adjusted for opponent. It really hit on the freshmen and transfers on that side of the ball.
The Terps have certainly been opportunistic on turnovers. That likely isn't sustainable, but they can generate pressure at an elite level, which you need to do to have any shot of slowing down Fernando Mendoza and this Indiana machine.
Keep an eye on edge Zahir Mathis, who I personally love watching.
The Maryland offense isn't great by any stretch of the imagination. It simply can't run the ball, but true freshman quarterback Malik Washington is taking care of the ball and not taking any sacks behind a vastly improved offensive line.
Both of those factors (and Maryland's solid special teams play) are critical when backing a big dog. And as usual in College Park, Washington has dangerous weapons at wide receiver to work with.
From a situational standpoint, Maryland is coming off a bye week, which I believe has more value for a team with a pair of new coordinators (who I think are both significant upgrades) and a roster with severe turnover.
The extra prep time should also really benefit a true freshman signal-caller.
Meanwhile, Indiana is fresh off its second 50-plus point win over a conference opponent, with its last real obstacle to a perfect regular season on deck at Penn State (if you still want to call it that).
Cignetti's team will likely be entirely focused, but the Hoosiers may come out a bit flat.
Maryland has three losses on the year, but led in the fourth quarter of each. The Terps are just a few plays away from coming into this game at 7-0, in which case this line certainly wouldn't be sitting above three touchdowns.
I think their defense can hold this to 21 or less. Keep in mind, they did play the Hoosiers tough in Bloomington last year.
Lastly, Maryland was down a handful of defensive starters in the second half (and a key edge rusher for the entire game) against UCLA. At full strength, it pulls that game out.
I'm expecting the Terps to be closer to full strength here, but it's worth mentioning that stud safety Jalen Huskey will miss the first half due to targeting.
Hopefully, Cignetti doesn't have the spread on his mind if it's teetering around the number late. I may look dumb here, but it won't be the first nor last time.
Pick: Maryland +21.5 or Better
